Scenario planning was a popular tool 20 years ago, but seems to have been supplanted by other tools, and priorities, or forgotten. In an increasingly unpredictable world, it makes sense to step back, and consider a range of perhaps unlikely scenarios, after all, those doing budgets in early 2008 when oil was $45 a barrel would hardly have predicted it would be $145 just 9 months later, then drop back under $100 almost as quickly, or that The gulf of Mexico would become an oil bath, and more recently, that a single persons protest in Tunisia would start Egypt on the rocky road to democracy, followed by the riots and perhaps revolution in Libya, that an earthquake would lead to a tsunami and nuclear “incident” in Japan, what else can happen?
Stepping back, and using the tools of scenario planning, identifying the fundamental drivers as an input to your own planning makes more sense now than it has for 30 years.
