A Corona, heavily disguised as a Black Swan

There is a quote by Earnest Hemingway, when asked how he went bankrupt. His response was:  ‘Gradually, then suddenly’.

The same thing is happening to us now, as the Corona bug cuts a swathe through economies worldwide.

For the last 25 years we have become interconnected and interdependent, as individuals, businesses and economies.  This added to the stability of the system as a whole, and while all goes well, in the absence of some black swan event, we continue to slowly dig deeper into interconnectivity.

Along comes the black swan, and all that interconnectedness and interdependence pivots in an instant, from being a source of stability and certainty, to the catalyst that suddenly brings the whole system crashing down.

Imagine a group of climbers on a rock face. They are all roped together so that if one falls, the others are strong enough to hold him, and allow him to recover back onto the rock face. That is the case almost always, it is why climbers rope themselves together, as it reduces the risk to the individual. However, if the system fails, a vital piton pulls out, or a holding rope breaks, momentum builds almost instantly, and the whole group falls. The risk to the individual is lessened dramatically by the presence of the ropes, however, if the black swan flies in, the group falls.

It seems Corona is our black swan.

In Australia we have had consistent growth since late 1991, 28 and a bit years. In that time we have hollowed out manufacturing, sold off public and private assets, more often than not to international groups, embraced the ‘gig’ economy of casual and short term employment, and forgotten  how to think strategically and for the benefit of the group. In its place, we have lauded individuality, immediate gratification, and the expectation of something for  nothing.

It seems we are now about to pay a high price.

The rope has come loose from the rock face.

I wrote an article last weekend for an industry forum, expecting it to be published on Monday or Tuesday after the editor had a look at it and got organised. The pressure of  ‘The bug’ got in the way, and it was not published, but I just had a look at the draft, just 7 days later, and it is out of date.

7 days, and some of the observations and predictions I made have been passed by events, predictions just a few days old have become utterly redundant.

That is how quickly this thing is moving, and we are struggling to curb its momentum.

Header photo courtesy Simon Murray.