Never have we needed to understand the OODA loop more!

Observe, Orient, Decision, Action, or ‘OODA Loop’ is a thought process articulated by John Boyd, the maverick American fighter pilot, engineer, and scientist, who revolutionised the practise of aerial warfare’. His nickname in the Airforce was ’40 second Boyd,’ reflecting his bet, that he could beat any other pilot in a dogfight in under 40 seconds. It is said, nobody ever collected from him.

Boyd’s OODA loop is a framework for creating tactical advantage. As he put it, ‘To enable you to operate inside the oppositions ability to respond’. 

The ability to respond is driven by the speed with which you are able to collect and analyse information, to come up with a tactical response given that it is almost always ambiguous and incomplete information, make the decision, and implement. This is done continuously, creating a ‘loop’ that increasingly becomes quicker than the competition can respond, leading to success.

We are in such a position now.

The ‘Bug’ has turned the way we thought things were on its head, there will be a new normal at some point. Those who survive until then, will be those who are more agile, faster to actively respond in an entirely ambiguous environment, in a manner that learns continuously.

If you apply this sort of thinking to the current situation, you might go through the following process.

Observe.

External assessment.

• The state of the economy, recognising the rapidly deteriorating organic demand, seemingly about to receive a public jolt by way of multibillion dollar injections by governments of all three levels.

• Corporate failures that are the inevitable outcome of the drop in demand. 
• Explosive increases in unemployment and resulting community and individual distress

• Crumbling of the ability of health institutions to react in sufficient time given the  resource shortages.

• The emergence of opportunities unavailable previously, such as domestic manufacture of health related consumables and equipment, software that delivers supply chain transparency and accountability, the recognition that remote working is not only  viable, but is a cost and productivity effective  strategy.
• Expected time when economic activity can restart and recover into some sort of ‘new normal’

Internal assessment.

• Operating numbers: cash flow, debtors and creditors and varying payment options and cycles, sales pipeline, discretionary spending programs, fixed costs.
• Essential people, technologies, products and customer relationships upon which rebuilding can take place.
• Sources of cash injections that may be available, including government programs, and the timing and obligations of cash that may be available. 

Orient.

Having collected this information, in effect, observed the environment, it needs to be synthesised into a cohesive plan, oriented for action. You might consider factors such as your business model, pricing structures, supply chain relationships, specific market niches, staff deployment,  key strategically important customers, and internal reorganisation of individual capabilities.

Decide.

Often, taking what are really challenging decisions, made with incomplete information, that impact the lives of people and the future of the organisation, are easy to put off. There is always another piece of vital information necessary to make a better decision. Unfortunately, in a crisis, you do  not have the time to wait, you must decide, be prepared to be wrong, accept the consequences of being wrong, and learn from them, but  you must decide.

Act.

Having taken the decisions, take the action  necessary. A decision not acted on, is not a decision to do anything other than make yourself feel better, or avoid the pain of implementation. Understandable,  but not acceptable.

Wait, your work is not done.

Go back and reassess each stage, apply the OODA loop again, and again, to identify and claim that competitive advantage. In this moment, fighting the ‘Bug’, that advantage might deliver survival, and as the economy improves post bug, prosperity.