The essential template for hindsight planning

 

How do you execute on that BEHAG?

How do you fulfil the vision?

How do you accomplish the mission?

These are all questions I get from time to time from people stumped at the point where the dream, whatever label you choose to put on it, has to be turned into some sort of activity.

A dream in the absence of the steps to achieve that dream is commonly called a fantasy.

The process that I help people through is what I call ‘Hindsight Planning’

It has four distinct steps.

Step 1. Understand the market dynamics.

There is no avoiding the necessity to understand the drivers in the markets you are seeking to leverage. The technologies, barriers to entry and exit, capital requirements, regulatory requirements, major competitive factors, and a host of others all play a role. In the absence of at least having some idea of the ‘Current state’ of the market, you risk that plan being just a shattered dream. Unless you understand what it is you want to change in order to grow, and what the probable drivers of that growth will be, it will remain a fantasy.

Step 2. Agree on the shape of the business down the track.

Planning horizons change from market to market. Technology markets are changing almost as we speak, some others have very long lead times, although it is often these that are disrupted by newcomers who throw the long held beliefs that have driven the market over the wall and change everything. Nevertheless, difficult choices need to be made. What you will do and how, but often more importantly, what you will not do and why.

Step 3. Plan backwards.

Having agreed the shape and size of the business in 1, 3, or 5 years, whatever horizon you have agreed on, the task now is to ‘put yourself there’. Imagine the outcome has been achieved, and then articulate the steps you have taken in that journey. This might seem just to be an exercise in words, and to some extent that is true, but importantly, it is also an exercise in perspective. Working backwards enables you to test ideas, assumptions and choices, against an outcome you have agreed has already occurred, albeit in your collective minds. In that way, a ‘reality filter’ of sorts has been applied.

Some of the obvious questions that need to be answered may be:

• Where did the revenue come from? Growth is not possible in the absence of revenue, so list the sources on a whiteboard. Current customers, new customers, channels, business models, products, technical achievements, geographies, and so on. However, do not just list them, articulate in some detail how it has happened. Again, that past perspective adds real ‘grunt’ to the conversations.
• Where did the capital come from? Growth is a veracious consumer of resources, particularly capital. How did you fund that growth? Reinvestment of retained earnings, capital raising from friends and family, or from the markets, public and private, debt finance considering the necessity for assets as collateral?
• What is the dominant business model? Are you a middleman, retailer, on line item sales, subscription sales, did you achieve a position to monetise arbitrage opportunities, and so on. Digital has delivered a host of new and emerging business models to us over the last decade, but one thing that has become clear, if it was not already, is that differing business models do not live comfortably in the same house. Therefore, if your revenue streams come from different business models, the structure of your resulting business needs to be decentralised by those differing business models.
• What is the ideal corporate structure?  Have you remained private, are you publicly owned, a partnership, Joint venture, franchise system? There are many options, and as in the previous question, potential siblings rarely successfully live in the same house.
• What capabilities were required to succeed? This is a question in two parts. Firstly, what capabilities were required from individuals, technical, strategic, financial, and all the other factors that make human beings able to contribute? Secondly, what were the organisational, leadership and cultural factors that enabled the organization to leverage the capabilities the individuals brought in each morning as they turned up to work.

Step 4. Execution of the plan

As noted, a plan of any sort remains a fantasy in the absence of the means to execute, and deliver on the plan.

Executing on a plan to achieve an objective has a few wrinkles that must be accommodated:

• ‘No plan’, as George Patton said, ‘survives first contact with the enemy. This means that the plan must be sufficiently agile to accommodate the unexpected, while remaining focussed on the objective.

• All stakeholders, and most particularly those who are employed, must not only know the plan, but they must understand and ‘buy into’ the objective, while reacting tactically to the unplanned things that confront them. The means to achieve these usually mutually exclusive outcomes, is that they not only understand their role, and the part their role plays in the larger objective, but they must also be prepared to be more than just an unthinking functionary, doing as they are told, or at least as they understand they are being told. It is a process of critical thinking and feedback going up, down, and very importantly, across the management chain. Not an easy thing to achieve and one we normally just attribute to some natural ‘leader’ who emerges. However, everyone has the capacity to be a leader, simply by being a participant in the process and holding themselves accountable for the actions of others.
• Operationally deploying ‘Nested’ functional plans. Like the operations of a mechanical watch, to tell accurate time, each part of the mechanism must contribute in a defined way to every other part of the mechanism, while not being overtly connected. There are always a range of flywheels driving others of varying sizes that are doing different roles, that all add up to that accurate time. An organisation is just the same, and this diversity of role, timing, and relationships to other flywheels must all be kept in synch if the outcome is to be achieved. No easy task, which is why it so often fails. Successfully driving towards an objective, means that the various parts of the mechanism of the organisation must work be synchronised in ways that are able to accommodate the tactical opportunities and reverses that inevitably occur while not losing sight of the objective. This all requires what I call ‘operational nesting’

 

When you need an expert to help you think about these things, let me know.