It is November, typically the beginning of the planning cycle for budget year 21/22.
First point of call in a formal review is generally ‘How did we perform so far this year against the plan we set ourselves back in November 2018?
Few could reasonably mark themselves as a success. The impact of a pandemic of any type, let alone Covid, was not even mentioned. Despite the warnings from SARS, MARS, Ebola, and from individuals such as Bill Gates, no planning I have seen or even heard of made mention of the possibility of a disruption such as that we have seen, and continue to see. The gap of 18 months between the strategic planning and review/adjust marker posts is terminal against an opposition that evolves and pivots in weeks.
So, to the core of the strategic challenge.
What will the rest of 20/21 look like, and what are the drivers present that will persist?
How do we allocate resources to the longer term?
This will be strategic planning in an entirely new environment, and the only consolation is that all your competitors are faced with the same degree of uncertainty.
Perhaps it is the case where the least worst gets the cake?
It seems to me that there is massive value in making the distinction between strategic planning, and strategic implementation.
A lot of planning goes on, but often the implementation pays only lip service, being driven by tactical ‘necessity’. As Prussian Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke noted and many have since paraphrased: ‘No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond first contact with the main hostile force’. This certainly will have been the case over the last 12 months, but that does not remove the importance of the planning part.
Covid has been the catalyst of all sorts of changes, but when you pull them apart, all the things that have come to pass were there previously, lingering on the edges. Covid has just been the catalyst to massively accelerate the growth and impact of those pre-existing trends from out on the edges, from where change almost always emerges.
If this is true, the strategic planning processes are still valid, you still have to make those strategic choices, which markets, which products, which customers, which technologies, and so on, but in the implementation, you no longer have the luxury of time, it is the quick and the dead.
It seems to me that ‘Strategic planning’ should provide a framework within which to make tactical decisions that reflect the intent of the framework. They should be made ‘rolling,’ so as to absorb the learning from the previous cycle, and be able to accommodate changes as they emerge. A strategic OODA loop.
This is easier said than done, but if it was easy, everyone would be doing it.
It also seems to me that the siloed top down decision making and the cultures and processes that support it should no longer have a place at the table. Unfortunately for most existing organisations, they combine to assure that agility and creativity in response to new information is removed from the process.
The ability to deal dynamically with new information and changed circumstances is the new competitive advantage, but culturally it is not common.
We need to be able to give those in direct contact with markets and trends both head time to absorb the things they see, and the power to act on them without a long bureaucratic filtering process of approval. They also need the power to allocate resources to those ‘experiments’ within pre-agreed parameters, and have real time feedback from those experiments, seen at the top level so as to be able to influence the strategic cycles directly.
The feedstock of this cultural change is more than data, with which we have become obsessed. It is the ‘soft’ stuff, human experience and judgement that becomes vital to the outcomes, as it is only by humans that judgements can be made. Algorithms are great at collecting data, and telling us what happened, but lousy at projecting, this requires human judgement, intuition, and experience.
It is this judgement that synthesises the data into something different to an extrapolation, absorbs the lessons of the past to apply to nascent and emerging trends.
In these differences lies the secret of strategic implementation.
Call me now for a strategic reality check.
Header cartoon courtesy Hugh McLeod at www.gapingvoid.com
