Every plan I have ever seen, business plan, strategic plan, house plan, office layout plan, is made up of a set of assumptions about the future.
To varying degrees these assumptions are based on two sorts of ‘facts’. These so called ‘facts’ are not accurate reflections of reality, but expectations with varying degrees of validity. They seem to fall into two categories:
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- ‘Facts’ about the future, often distorted by perspective, misunderstanding, incomplete information, and a host of other variables.
- ‘Facts’ that are really just an extension of the status quo extended into the future.
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These ‘facts’ are then fed into a process of some sort and used to develop a plan in the mistaken belief that the future will look little different to the past.
Therefore, the first responsibility of anyone doing a plan is to find a mechanism to test the key assumptions in the plan, and adjust as necessary.
Failure to test the key assumptions, which are the drivers of the performance of the plan when implemented, is the best way I know to really stuff it up.
Having a plan that does not reflect reality ensures either: that every decision that will be made during implementation is suboptimal, leading to poor outcomes, or that the plan is discarded, and normal chaos resumed.
I am never sure which is the worse outcome.
