A former client has been providing engineering services to the fossil fuel industry for decades. Having breakfast with him a while ago, he expressed the view that the prospects for the industry in which his business competes, and thus his business are dismal.
He is right, so long as he continues to see his current capability set through the perspective of how the business has operated in the past.
The challenge is to position yourself to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. Emerging technologies of various types are opening substantial opportunities for which his business has deep capabilities, but which are hiding in an alternative perspective of how those capabilities can be leveraged. Changing the strategic frame through which they are seen provides a path forward.
The challenge of the future is to reposition yourself quickly towards the point at which there is real, monetised value to be added.
You must be prepared to make early bets on those opportunities with the best odds of success in the medium term with a minimum of information by which to make those decisions. Equally, you must be prepared to walk away from the sunk cost when new information emerges which reduces the odds of the expected success.
Stripped back to basics, you must set yourself up so that as clarity emerges you are in a position to accelerate into it.
In my younger days I spent half my life on a surfboard. In a big swell, the position on the wave you took after the take-off was critical. Done right, you were able to accelerate out of the bottom turn into the fastest part of the wave, and, hopefully, make it through the break above you. Get the timing of the bottom turn just a bit wrong, and ‘Wipeout!
It is the same in business, positioning yourself going into uncertainty in the manner that puts you in the best position to accelerate out as it becomes clearer will be the difference between those who make it, and those who do not.
Photo credit: John Morris via flikr
