When are the funds for an innovation initiative generally available?
At the beginning of a project.
When are the funds for an innovation project generally needed?
Increasingly towards the commercialisation, or completion of a project.
To me, this usual pattern of financial resource availability is arse about.
At the initiation of a project, the resource needs are peoples time, lab space, and the commitment from senior management., The need for financial resources is usually limited. However, it is this time that projects need to gather momentum, which means financial resources and forecast outcomes are included in budgets, and formal planning processes. The best way to ensure a project is supported is to ‘boost’ the promised returns and shorten the lead times.
Unfortunately, this locks in expectations that have impacts on the way projects proceed.
A project that promises 25% IRR in 18 months will almost always win the resources race over a project that forecasts 30% IRR in 5 years. This sort of financial analysis is how choices are usually made, ignoring the strategic implications of the differing projects. This is because we have not found a way yet to reliably tell the future, and immediacy is a powerful motivator.
On top of that you have the favouring of evolutionary ‘innovation’ over ‘revolutionary’ innovation.
Most successful businesses become successful by incrementally improving products and processes over time, and are prepared to spend money to keep the evolution going. The challenge of this is that it crowds out the revolutionary innovation, the ones that have the potential to change markets, rather than just do more of the same but just a bit better.
The examples of these abound.
When I was working for Cerebos in the early 80’s, we marketed a muesli under the brand ‘Cerola’. It was in the days when there were only a few breakfast cereals on the market, unlike today. Similarly, confectionary was less fragmented. We came up with the notion of a muesli bar, a ‘healthier’ snack than anything then available, with the convenience and taste of confectionary for kids lunch boxes. We did extensive product development, several pilot plant trials, and a little market research. In the early stages I had done a forecast profit and loss, timeline, and we had established the capital costs necessary for the changes to the existing muesli line. These were included in the Cerebos budgets as project ‘M’. The numbers were modest, but at the time, pushed as far as I felt comfortable. When it came to the final go/no go decision, the project was binned, as the forecast IRR based on my modest sales forecasts did not meet the hurdle. A year later, Uncle Toby’s came out with pretty much the same product and positioning, and did my annual sales forecast in the first month. Opportunity missed, and lesson learnt.
Kodak, that well known exemplar of the missed opportunity, not only invented the digital camera in 1975, they brought out the first viable digital SLR, the Kodak DCS-100 in 1991. While it was bulky, and expensive, it was the first. In 1994 Kodak supplied Apple with the ‘Apple QuickTake’ manufactured in China to a Kodak design. Also in 1994, Kodak brought out the NC2000 designed for photo-journalists.
So, Kodak did not miss the digital camera revolution, they led it, but simply failed to see beyond the boundaries of the photography business model as it had evolved over the previous century. They saw innovation as an evolutionary process, not revolutionary, as that carried the risk that their existing hugely profitable model would become redundant. None of the senior management over that time wanted to fund the risk of shooting the cash cow upon which they all depended.
Cerebos by contrast were shackled by a short-term focus on an unrealistic financial expectation that ignored the strategic value of the opportunity to generate sales, and also to open a new market that carried and solidified the Cerola brand.
In both cases, a huge opportunity that emerged from the fringes of their markets were subjected to a muddle headed and front-loaded financial calculation, ignoring the strategic implications of the opportunity.
Header source: The extensive StrategyAudit ‘slide bank’ built up over 30 years.
