Strategy is an exercise of informed fortune telling.
What will happen if we do this? Is that better than if we do that? How will others react, do the ducks really all align the way they seem to?
A thousand questions we set out to answer to allocate our resources to best leverage the outcomes we plan/hope will emerge.
It is a messy business, full of uncertainty, mistakes, dead ends, and outright failures, most of which we hear little about. Instead, we hear a lot about the few successful exercises in strategy, the few that work as hoped, or as is usually the case, not as planned, but great outcomes.
We read about the success because people can analyse them with the benefit of hindsight, which delivers to those developing the strategy, some level of prescient certainty that they almost never deserve. Fact is, your strategy will never be spot on, the magic is in the ability to adjust on the run, while achieving the outcome for which you planned.
The strategic process benefits from being subjected to informed and critical thinking being applied to the inputs, both quantitative and qualitative. The greater the level of critical thought and diverse thinking that can be brought to bear on a strategic challenge the better.
The context of strategy implementation is always different to the context in which you do the planning, simply because it is the future, and things evolve in unpredictable ways.
I expect that in about 12 months there will be a rush of erudite papers and articles reporting on successful Corona instigated transformations. These will make the protagonists look like they had great foresight others lacked, when in fact, while they ended up with the lollies, they were as confused and muddled as the rest of us during the lolly fight.
They had the benefit of hindsight to clean up their bedrooms before anyone came along for a look.
Strategy is messy because it lacks hindsight
