There is no way around the fact that AI is now with us, and evolving at logarithmic rates. The unanswered question is ‘so what?
There are two extreme schools of thought, and everything in between.
On one hand we have those who are extremely wary:
# It will replace jobs, creating an unemployed under-class
# It will take away peoples rights to privacy, choice, and freedom, creating risk from baddies
# The buggars will take over, we become the slaves of some dystopian thinking ‘terminator’ machines.
On the other hand, there are those who see:
# Huge commercial and community benefits from the automation and efficiency AI brings
# Every platform change in the last 200 years from coal to electricity, horses to cars, vacuum tubes to integrated circuits, PC networks to the cloud, all delivering huge benefit. Why not again?
# The risks are manageable, and less than the benefits that will flow, besides, it is now an unstoppable force, so choices are limited.
Let’s first have some context.
We have been idolising AI from our earliest times, seeking assistance, advice and guidance from all manner of sources. The beguilingly named Ada Lovelace, daughter of Lord Byron wrote what is seen as the first ‘software’ for the Babbage machine in around 1840, with Babbage taking the credit. In 1943 the first paper that associated the neural networks in our brains to electrical circuits was published. In 1950, 73 years ago, Alan Turing wrote a paper called ‘Computing machinery and Intelligence’ which posed the ‘Turing test’. This remains the central question of AI: ‘When can machines think?
The term AI emerged from a 1956 workshop held at Dartmouth College, seen as the birth of modern AI. It kicked off research work in many corners of the scientific world. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, scientists, and many startups such as Deep Mind, now part of Google, and OpenAI the designer of Chat and Dall-E, significantly funded by Microsoft, have been working on this since the 90’s. The ‘T’ in ChatGPT stands for ‘Transform’ a patented technology breakthrough by Google.
This long scientific road led to an inflection point last November when OpenAI let Chat GPT out into the wild to see what would happen, and take the strategic ‘first mover’ advantage.
What AI is: the application of maths and software code that ‘teach’ computers to synthesise information and generate output. It is controlled by people, although even the scientists are not always sure of what goes on inside the black box of software.
What AI is not: Killer software and robots that spring to life and take over by killing and/or subjugating people.
How does it work? Statistics and probability, combined with huge computing power.
The probability of a ‘u’ following a ‘q’ in English is very high, the probability of that q being followed by any other letter is very low. The probability of that ‘u’ being followed by an ‘e’ is higher than it being followed by a ‘z’. And so it goes, letter by letter, word by word, progressively taking on the context in which those letters, words, sets of words, and sentences are reflected, such that the difference between a ‘party’ in the sense of a happy event, versus a ‘party’ in the political sense is clear.
Having sorted all that out, what are the things we should be thinking about?
- AI as an augmenter. A tool that can assist us to outcomes that are smarter, quicker, and more comprehensive than we might have reached on our own. The role of humans will not be eliminated, but it will be changed.
- AI as a broker. AI stands between us, and an outcome we may not know how to reach, but can be facilitated by AI. You want to write some code, now you do not have to be a coding whizz, AI can do it for you quickly, and with reasonable levels of success.
- AI as a magnifier. Every kid can have an IA tutor, every doctor an AI coach, every scientist an AI collaborator, this will lead to potential productivity growth, scientific breakthroughs, creative boundaries being busted, reduce death in wars. The downside is also magnified, there is always a flip side to be managed.
- Should we be concerned with ‘Synthetic Empathy’? we humans are social animals, what impact will this accelerating trend to isolation from physical contact and interaction have on our collective psyche?
- Blue Vs White collar displacement. Every platform change in our economies over the last 250 years have displaced blue collar workers, in favour of white collar so called ‘knowledge workers’. This one is different, it is the white collar knowledge workers, those who shuffle stuff around who are in the gun. There is no AI/robotics that can replace Albert the plumber, or Steve the sparkie. AI will change the support mechanisms they use, but will not change the simple act of fixing the leak in your bathroom or installing that extra powerpoint in the kitchen..
- Regulation. How can, and indeed should, we regulate, somehow. It is remarkably difficult to regulate something that does not exist. We have failed to regulate social media, despite with the benefit of hindsight, recognising the damage it can do. Compared to AI, regulating Social media would be easy, and we have failed to get that done. The problem is how do we go about crafting regulations that do anything at all beyond catching silly stuff, when it is in the outliers, and things we do not see other than with hindsight, that the real danger hides.
To answer the question posed in the header, it is my view that AI is an enormous avalanche of technical, cultural and digital change. We need to either get with the program, or get out of the way. If it is the latter, you will be consigning yourself to irrelevance.
This is not to imply it is all good.
AI does not have goals, it is not alive, it is just your toaster on steroids, so you can control it. AI is a tool, like any other, which can be used for good and bad, but indifference will lead to whacking your thumb with the hammer. The other thing about tools is that over time, they build equality and productivity.
However, the potential downsides are huge, the opportunity for evil have never been greater, but as the avalanche will not be stopped, you have to be in front of it to see and prepare for the pitfalls before you trip over them and are consumed.
Suck it up and enjoy the benefits!
Header cartoon credit: XKCD comic from the scary mind of Randall Munroe
