So, Elon Musk surprised everyone, again, by killing Twitter and launching X.
Whatever X is.
Everyone in the marketing, strategic and management world generally seems to have had a go, except me, so here goes.
He must be effing crazy!
(Psst.. He is, but is it crazy smart or just crazy?)
Twitter had a range of problems, magnified since Elon sent the previous owners an offer to buy the joint for an absurdly large chunk of change. It was so large that the then board almost killed themselves racing to sign before he changed his mind and halved the offer. This might have been closer to the value, albeit still overly generous.
Having failed to wriggle out of the offer to buy, he then cut staff numbers 80% from the staff of 7500. Meanwhile ad revenue continued to tank, the rate just increased, dramatically.
Surprisingly, twitter still worked.
Estimates of the value of the twitter brand pre-execution vary a lot, but commonly vary between 5 and $6 billion. That is a lot to just flush down the dunney for no apparent reason.
Competitors must be rejoicing, particularly Meta that just launched ‘Threads’ as a twitter competitor, only to find the gorilla in the garden has been turned into a gnome.
Musk, and everyone else in this space has watched what WeChat has achieved in China, and into the Chinese diaspora, and wanted to emulate it. Given the original source of Musk’s wealth was PayPal, he would be in as good a space as anyone to make that happen. That makes sense, but why sacrifice twitter in preference to starting a separate company?
It simply does not make sense.
There are a few other things that do not make sense, until they did.
Re-useable rockets were not possible, until he did it.
Tesla electric cars at volume did not make sense until he did it.
Tesla as a public company would never make it, until it did. (Tesla now has a market value more than all other US manufacturers and Toyota combined, and continues to climb)
Gigabattery factories did not make sense until he did it.
Distributed recharging infrastructure did not make sense until Tesla reached scale and persuaded Detroit to sign up, a fortnight ago.
Based on his history, betting against Musk is a mugs game, no matter how little sense it makes to the rest of us.
