Jan 6, 2025 | AI, Strategy
This time of year is filled with self-congratulatory posts, the ‘Ten best posts of the year’ types. All of them I see, use as the measure the number of views, shares, and other external measures to rank them.
I am going to be different.
The posts I put up come from two places.
Firstly, the experiences I see amongst my group of clients and similar, mainly but not exclusively, SME manufacturers. Some are service providers of various types, but all are SME’s. Sadly, none who can or would pay the consultant rates routinely scooped up by institutional consultants with large offices filled with eager MBA’s who have not experienced anything beyond a sophisticated student piss-up.
Secondly, from the frustrations I feel as I scan and negotiate the economic technical and commercial environment, being the antennae for those few clients who put up with my garrulous nature disguised as wisdom, and wide and deep commercial experience.
The published posts are the outcomes of the usually conflicting ideas, opinions, and reading of that landscape, that goes on in my brain. I write to sort it out, at least a bit.
The tsunami of AI generated ‘content’ combined with the continuing evolution of the algorithms means my meagre readership has eroded over the last year or so, going down by 30-50%, depending on your starting point.
Part of me wants to tear my hair out, what little is left, but the reality is that writing these posts is a selfish activity. I benefit from the exercise, and if that spreads to a few others, great, if not, too bad.
Therefore, my list is of the 10 posts that reflect the original thinking, research and wisdom of the years I bring, or try to bring to everything published, but which got almost no traction at all. In other words, the best of the 2024 that were also the most ignored.
In no particular order beyond the month in which they appeared.
- Is another government review an answer to our slide down the complexity rankings? https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3hd December. This is fairly recent, so perhaps there is time yet for it to get traction. Yeah…maybe not. We are a complacent bunch, and it seems no number of words, moaning, and harsh critique by a few will shake us out of that state. It needs a bloody good crisis!
- The large, uncalculated cost in your business. November. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3ge I have never seen an adequate review of Opportunity cost in any strategic or planning document. Yet, it should be a significant factor in any resource allocation choice, as resources are finite. I guess it is too hard? Years ago I made an attempt when arguing for a long term commitment to brand advertising as an investment. I argued that rather than treating advertising as a short term variable expense in the P&L, it should be seen as an investment in future profitability. My analysis, based on the flimsy empirical evidence available at the time, opinion, and case studies clearly showed the long term benefit to profitability. While there were many arguable points, I was unaware of the key, deciding consideration. The MD was planning to retire early, and so was completely disinterested in the long term profit at the expense of the short term, upon which his bonus was calculated.
- Positioning: The secret weapon of aspiring market leaders. November. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3g2 . Positioning is an old fashioned marketing idea, widely misunderstood by todays ‘marketers’. It is not just a catchy slogan, it is a strategic framework, a statement of how value is added, that drives resource allocation choices.
- The increasing value of intangibles. November. Again. (I must have been taking something in November) https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3gv The evolution of our economy from a base that requires hard, tangible assets to one that is based on services has a flip side. The value of an enterprise is now almost wholly dependent on intangibles. This is the value ascribed to your customer base and relationships, documented and managed processes, capacity to innovate, strength of the ‘management bench’ strategic position in a market, and many others. None of these appear in a balance sheet. Traditional accounting fails monumentally at reflecting the value of a business as a result.
- Institutional memory as the critical component of future success. September. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3eV As life has sped up, become remote, is increasingly locked into screens and the tools accessed by screens, we are in great danger of losing the institutional memory that prevents us from repeating mistakes. When we lose the memory, we are more likely than ever to ensure that history repeats itself.
- Breaking up supermarkets: A really stupid idea. July. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3ej ‘Colesworth’ has been on the receiving end of much negative, and in my view, totally unwarranted comment. They are regularly accused of ‘price gouging’ by uninformed commentators, politicians seeking an easy target, and simply those in the queue waiting to pay the increasing costs of a weekly shop. The negative commentary demonstrates conclusively the ignorance of those commenting on the drivers and dynamics of the supply chains that exist to serve supermarket customers. Almost as an aside, it should be understood that every Australian with a managed superannuation fund is a stakeholder in one, and mostly both, Coles and Woolworths. In other words, if you are unfortunate enough to be in a queue of 10 people waiting to pay the checkout bill, 9 of them are stakeholders in whichever ‘Colesworth’ store you are in.
- Strategy does not include execution. May. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3dj Most management groups I have seen, and been a part of, undertake some sort of ‘Strategic planning’ exercise. In that process, 10% of the time is spent on strategy, the rest is spent on execution, or ‘budgeting’ as the usual shorthand. Not only does this grossly underestimate the challenges of genuine ‘strategy’ development, it conflates two profoundly different processes. It is like trying to mix oil and water, stir all you like, they will remain separate, and using them together makes both way less effective.
- Four strategic tasks for the owner of a successful SME. March. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3cu Every business I deal with wants to scale for a whole range of reasons that all boil down to the simple truth that scale delivers options and further growth and profitability. Most fail. They might survive, but they survive as an SME that requires the owner to be in the weeds on a weekly, and usually daily basis. That is not success, that is buying yourself a job, that usually comes with stress, and less financial rewards than are achievable elsewhere.
- Revolution by Digital: a survival necessity. February. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3bd In February the impact of AI was just being felt and seen for the first time by many. Few had done any more than play with the early version of ChatGPT, and most of them had come to the conclusion that AI was little more than another cog in the hype-cycle. Digital to most was still a vague term that led to added cost and confusion. A year later, and it is dawning on most that ‘Digital’ meaning the adoption of AI into their enterprises is a life and death choice.
- The two most important words in Strategy. January. https://wp.me/p5fjXq-3aY Libraries have been filled with well intentioned, academically sound analyses of strategy, along with a big lump of flimsy, self-serving stories of success. The latter group always fail to articulate the many hundreds of times their magic strategy potion had failed, only reflecting on the successes, and then they are often as much good luck as good management. In my world, there are two words that summarise a credible effort to build a strategy that will offer the guardrails and macro performance measures of a viable long term strategy. Imagination, and Possibilities. Application of these two drivers of human behaviour in concert will lead to strategic conclusions worth the paper they will end up being written on. Absence of either, and at best you have a budget.
That is my ten most unfairly ignored posts for the year.
I had a lot to choose from. Over 150 mostly ignored posts, all coming from my observations of the strategic, competitive, and regulatory constraints under which we, and most specifically my few clients operate.
None have been spawned, copied, or revamped from the tsunami of stuff spewing from AI generators. Every word is mine, and mine alone. The commentary on AI, of which there is a fair bit, is again mine. My comments reflect the importance and potential of the geometrically compounding impact of AI, and my frustration at the apparent lack of interest evident amongst the business sectors I seek to work with to improve performance by leveraging the potential of AI.
It has been a tough job picking the top ten ignored posts. This blog generates very little traction, although the feedback from those few who are regular readers is encouraging.
As a last observation, I add the first post I wrote after ChatGPT was launched on November 30, 2022. Published on December 19th 2022, just two weeks later, the post asked the first question everyone asks, ‘will it take my job‘? Progressively over the first few months of 2023, I added 20 addendums to the post as I stumbled across more and more tools, use cases and understood better the implications of AI. By then, there was general awareness, and hundreds of newsletters that did a better job of keeping track of this digital tsunami as it surges across our lives, so I called ‘time’ on the post. I have however come to the conclusion that AI will not take jobs, but individuals that use Ai will take the jobs of those who do not.
Jan 1, 2025 | Change
Have you noticed that today, New Year’s Day 2025, marks the halfway point of the 2020s?
So what you ask? Fair question.
We tend to see halfway points as representing a significant choice, a catalysts for change, the point of no return.
Is today such a point?
What should we be considering as we step into the latter half of the decade?
Continuous Improvement is a Game of compounding 1%.
Small improvements, made consistently, compound into massive progress over time. This “game of 1%” is simple to understand but challenging to execute. It requires discipline, alignment, and a commitment to consistent action. The key lies in identifying obstacles and either eliminating or outsourcing them to free up your time and energy, both finite resources.
Often, these obstacles are subtle sources of friction you may not notice until you actively search for them.
The early stages of 1% improvements are straightforward. You can achieve them by working a bit harder, smarter, or longer, and removing obvious friction in the processes you run. However, as you progress, the gains become harder to realise, demanding cultural and operational change to unlock the next level. Continuous improvement is not just about short-term wins; it’s about laying the groundwork for sustained success.
Start with the Hard Stuff
Traditional New Year’s resolutions often fizzle out because they lack structure and focus. A mentor once taught me the power of tackling the hardest tasks first thing in the morning. This approach, though difficult, transformed my productivity and continues to serve me well.
In my corporate life, I prioritized difficult decisions, conversations, and analytical tasks early in the day. Now, working for myself without the external pressures of a corporate environment, this habit is even more critical. When you are accountable only to yourself, it is easy to fall into procrastination. Starting with the hard stuff sets the tone for a productive day and a successful year.
Be Contrarian
We are told to set goals, pursue our mission, and stay the course. However, in a world evolving at the speed of an F1 race, flexibility and adaptability within a solid strategic framework are essential survival skills. The challenge is to marry these two conflicting forces, and zig into less contested spaces, when everyone else is zagging.
It requires that you see the commercial and strategic environment through perspectives that usually make others uncomfortable.
Flexibility and adaptability, while often used as synonyms, are very different. Flexibility implies you bend with the wind, then revert back to the previous shape when the wind stops. By contrast, adaptability is the ability to adjust tactically as circumstances change, while maintaining the strategic direction.
Once a strategic direction and priorities are agreed, I encourage my clients to plan in cycles of five quarters in preference to an annual budget. That offers a horizon that is close enough to allow real-time adaptability but far enough to maintain and strengthen strategic direction.
AI is the Game-Changer
Artificial intelligence is no longer the future; it is the present. The release of ChatGPT-3 in late 2022 sparked a wave of innovation in the tools enabling enterprise planning and operations.
Businesses can no longer afford to ignore AI. Those who embrace it will widen the gap between themselves and those who hesitate. AI is not just about efficiency; it’s about transformation. If you have been hesitant to dive in, now is the time. The water is warm and deep, and the potential rewards are immense.
The Ultimate Differentiator is curiosity.
In a world where change is the only constant, curiosity has become a superpower. Those who remain curious will continue to learn, adapt, and evolve. Those who do not will fall behind at a negative compounding rate.
Curiosity drives exploration, creativity, and innovation. It’s what keeps us engaged with the new frontiers of thought and action.
Make 2025 the year you lean into your curiosity, seeking out opportunities to learn and grow.
Dec 23, 2024 | Change, Leadership
Yesterday was the summer solstice here down under. The longest day of the year. While it is a long slide into the modest chills of winter, it has begun, again.
It is also just two sleeps until my grandchildren can rip away the wrapping paper and play for a short time with their new stuff, mysteriously left by a bloke with a beard (and tatts?) before they get back to being endlessly curious about everything around them.
Wonderful thing having grandchildren. As American writer and commentator Paul Harvey said, ‘Nobody should have children, but everybody should have grandchildren”. I’m not too sure how that would work, but am fully on board.
What a year.
Our American allies voted in, again, a convicted felon as President. Nobody I know understands the dynamics of this choice, we just hope it works out better than we think it will.
World economies are struggling, and while Australia’s economy is in a per capita recession, and we have all sorts of challenges, the government seems to be delivering the promised ‘soft landing’. However, if you are renting in Sydney or Melbourne, you probably do not see anything soft about it. It also seems to me they have squibbed on several important (to some) questions. Gambling advertising will continue, we do not have any transparency on political donations, the federal ICAC has been shown to have no teeth, no regulatory progress on promised measures to mitigate carbon emissions, and housing affordability. That last one will hurt the government, as they will carry the blame for 40 years of underinvestment, and tax breaks given by both sides of politics to buy votes, which has led to the current ‘crisis’.
Investment in infrastructure generally has been lacking for years, but 2024 saw a surge in big ticket items like roads and suburban rail, showing massive cost blowouts. Snowy 2 point whatever is good in theory, and perhaps history will be kinder than me, but what a cock-up! Add AUKUS and a few others and you have the seeds to common disbelief in the ability of public bodies to get out of their own way.
Private investment in productive assets is also lacking, reflecting both a lack of long-term confidence, the incentives favouring non-productive assets, and the lack of depth in our own company’s ability to compete on the world stage. Beyond digging stuff up and shipping it off for value adding elsewhere, we are diminishing as a viable competitor in the world economy. This is a structural failure over a very long period. Donald Horne observed in 1964 that we were the ‘lucky country’. Most misunderstood the sarcasm of the statement at the time, and still do. However, we continue to sail along as if there was nothing to be fixed.
Our politics is stressed, superficial, divisive, and utterly short term, and over the first few months of 2025, will only become more so as the election approaches.
ChatGPT, launched into the wild on November 30, 2022 has led to a frenzy of innovation that will be seen by history as being as momentous as the printing press, and electricity. When I first stumbled across it in mid-December 2022, I thought it was astonishing but had little idea of the impact over the following months, and now two years. The initial thought was ‘will it take my job? I have concluded that AI will not take peoples jobs, although every job will change, and some disappear being replaced by ones we have not thought of yet. However, people who use AI will take the jobs of those who do not. No use hiding, the world has changed, again.
2024 also saw increased ferocity in the Ukraine and Gaza. Many have noted that War is the logical result of the failure of diplomacy. In both these current cases, you could add massive ego and fanaticism to the failure of diplomacy over centuries. From the comfort of a Sydney home, it seems a long way away, until a synagogue in Melbourne is torched, and there are riots in Sydney.
This is my last post for 2024.
I will sit back and wait for Santa, have a drink, see if the Boxing Day test has given us an opener who can withstand the wiles of Bumrah, and contemplate my expanding naval until early in 2025. Thanks to those few regular readers, I hope I have added to your menu of possibilities over the year.
Unlike many, every word I write is mine. Nothing artificial, inorganic or transcribed from elsewhere, although from time to time, I have asked for help in writing a headline that grabs attention. The tsunami of so called content spewing out of the AI tools makes the fight for attention more aggressive, vicious and destructive than ever.
Hug your kids, love your partner, value your friends, and stay safe and well.
Merry Christmas, and I will ‘see’ you next year.
Dec 18, 2024 | Change, Innovation, Strategy
In a world where technological generations now live and die within months, can another government review truly capture the lightning-fast pace of innovation? Two years after ChatGPT’s launch transformed our understanding of artificial intelligence, we’re facing a critical question: Are our innovation assessment methods becoming obsolete before the ink on the report has dried?
Australia’s innovation landscape tells a stark story. We’ve plummeted from 55th to 102nd in the Harvard Economic Complexity Index, a precipitous decline that demands more than traditional bureaucratic soul-searching. The challenge isn’t just about understanding our innovation ecosystem—it’s about reimagining how we nurture and accelerate technological breakthroughs in an era of unprecedented change.
Consider the breathtaking velocity of recent technological transformations. The journey from the ENIAC computer in 1945 to today’s AI-driven technologies has compressed decades of innovation into mere years. When I first encountered computing via punch cards in the early ’70s, the idea of conversational AI or neural interfaces would have seemed like pure science fiction. Now, these technologies are not just possible—they’re rapidly becoming commonplace.
The transformer mechanism described by Google researchers in 2017 didn’t just advance machine learning—it rewrote the entire rulebook of technological innovation. ChatGPT and its successors have demonstrated how quickly breakthrough technologies can move from theoretical concept to global phenomenon. The time between laboratory conception and widespread adoption is now measured in months, not decades.
Our current innovation review approach risks becoming a retrospective exercise—an autopsy of technological opportunities already lost. By the time a high-powered government board completes its comprehensive examination of the R&D ecosystem, the technological landscape will have shifted. We need a more dynamic, real-time approach to understanding and supporting innovation.
What might this look like? Instead of traditional lengthy reviews, we need:
– Rapid, continuous assessment mechanisms that can track innovation in near-real-time
– Flexible funding models that can quickly pivot to emerging technological frontiers
– Direct channels between researchers, entrepreneurs, and government decision-makers
– International collaboration frameworks that transcend bureaucratic boundaries
Countries like Israel and Singapore offer compelling alternative models. They’ve created innovation ecosystems that are less about rigid planning and more about creating adaptive, responsive environments where breakthrough ideas can flourish.
The stakes are too high for business-as-usual. Our global competitiveness depends on our ability to not just track innovation, but to actively cultivate an environment where breakthrough ideas can emerge and scale at unprecedented speeds.
Another government review won’t solve our innovation challenges. What we need is a fundamental reimagining of how we support, measure, and accelerate technological progress.
The future of Australian innovation isn’t waiting for a committee to finish its report. It’s happening right now—and we need to be ready to catch it.
Dec 16, 2024 | AI, Leadership
The characteristics of leadership we expect from the local nonprofit or sporting club, to the largest businesses in the country, to the Prime Minister, are pretty much the same.
Trust.
We need to trust them. Trust is earned by the behaviour we observe, never just given. It is also incremental, built over time, but is also fragile, and can be brought down in a minute by one bad example. The test, if there is such a thing is whether we believe that the private conversations the ‘leader’ is having are the same as the public ones, and would they be prepared to say those private things on the 6 O’clock news. By this test, many in prominent so called ‘leadership’ roles in this country fail. Dismally.
Dependability.
This has many forms, from delivering on the big promises made, to turning up on time for an appointment with the local hairdresser. In any leadership role, no matter the size, when a real leader finds themselves from time to time unable to deliver, they do not walk away from the fact, they acknowledge the failure, learn from it, and move on. To many, this is the essence of leadership, to me, in it’s simplest form, it is just common courtesy painted on a wider canvas.
Competence.
Someone placed in a leadership role, who is an example of the Peter principal is corrosive to the rest of the organisation. Those being led must believe that the leader is someone they can follow, and learn from. That does not mean they never make a mistake, it does not mean they are never unsure of themselves, or exhibit human frailties, it just means that we believe that they have the wisdom, skills and experience to get the job done.
Humanity.
We are herd animals, we rely on those around us for safety, and security. We have evolved and prospered as a species because we are able to collaborate and care for one another and rely on our neighbours in times of stress and crisis. In short, we care about others. Someone in a leadership position who does not care about those being led, is not a leader, at best they are a manager, dispensable and easily replaced.
When an individual displays these four characteristics, followers just seem to appear.
Header by DALL-E, who cannot be made to spell correctly no matter how hard I try to get its digital brain cells to listen!!
NOTE: Before posting this, I saw I had written an almost identical post a few years ago. While the four parameters are the same, the way I expressed them is a bit different. So, rather than scrapping it, as i have done before when realising i am repeating myself, I elected to post it anyway. Repeating a good idea is rarely a bad thing.
