Jun 30, 2023 | Change, Lean, Operations
Several years ago I became aware of ‘Wrights law‘. In the 1930’s, Theordore Wright an aero engineer proposed that: ‘For every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage’. This insight came from observing the performance of his own factories building aircraft during the thirties and over the course of the war.
While I do not have the numbers, intuitively after 50 years of observation, it holds very true.
That truth seems to hold over any manufacturing I have seen and read about, unlike its much better known sibling Moore’s Law. Gordon Moore observed the increase in the number of transistors that can be stuffed onto a silicon chip in a given period of time, and predicted that a doubling of numbers would hold consistently over the long term.
Therein lies the significant difference that manufacturers have come to rely on.
Moore’s law refers to technology improvements over time.
Wright’s law refers to the manufacturing cost reductions that come with scale.
I would suggest that the cumulative impact of the combination has had a potent effect on manufacturing costs of everything from the manufacture of simple widgets to solar panels, to the cost of human genome mapping. Wrights Law applies as scale builds, and technology provides a catalyst to a tipping point that radically alters the growth curve, after which the graph finds a new normal in the relationship between volume and cost.
Australia for lack of leadership, foresight and capital has shied away from the investment required to light that catalytic fire many times in the past.
A primary example is solar panels. We have known for a hundred years that solar energy could be harnessed. As a kid I used to burn leaves, paper, ants, and occasionally myself, with a magnifying glass. However, it took researchers at the UNSW to invent PERC (Passivated Emitter and Real Cell) technology in 1983 to kick off Australia being the international leader in Solar cell technology. Funding and the foresight to commercialise could not be assembled here, so the technology was used to develop the manufacturing industry in China, where Wright’s law has facilitated the growth of a dominating share of the world market for wafers, cells, and completed solar modules.
Forecasting manufacturing costs is at the core of every successful manufacturer. While in the early stages of commercialisation there will be a host of variables you need to be able to model, understanding the relationship between your cost base and scale will remove a significant weight from your shoulders when planning capital requirements.
Australia again finds itself on the cusp of being an international leader in Quantum computing, biotechnology, Hydrogen sourced energy, and rare earth extraction and value addition. Let’s not allow ourselves to be distracted this time, we may not get another chance.
Successful economies all have one thing in common: they manufacture stuff others want to buy. Australia’s history is littered with great ideas, and technical innovations that are commercialised elsewhere for lack of foresight, leadership and capital. We would be desperately stupid to let it happen again!
Jun 28, 2023 | Branding, Communication, Marketing
No business I have ever seen has enough in their marketing budgets to do all they would like to do. Therefore, they often start cutting bits off ‘willy nilly’ to reach a budget that can be managed.
There is a better way: Basic marketing 101, which most SME’s ignore to their detriment.
What problem do you solve.
The more specific the problem you solve better than anyone else, and the more specific you can be about those who are likely to have that problem, the more able you will be to focus your limited resources productively.
It appears easy at first glance to articulate the problem, often it is way harder than it seems. The key is to articulate it the way a customer would, rather than the way you speak about it internally. That way you have a chance to avoid the drill or the hole confusion.
Your brand.
Those who have the problem and may be inclined to pay someone to solve it for them, need to be aware of your brand, and the offer you make that will solve the problem for them. You must figure out the best way to reach these people in such a way that you may be able to at least add your brand to the list of options they have for consideration. Preferably of course, your brand is the only one they consider.
Trust.
There must be a reason for someone to pick your solution in preference to others that may be available. If that reason is price, then in most cases you have already lost by winning that race to the bottom.
Trust is hard won, and easily lost, but plays a crucial role in any sales process.
For most SME’s doing more than one thing at a time is challenging, so they tend to throw money at all three without adequate consideration of the best options they have to leverage their small budgets. There are many service providers out there who have all sorts of creative and verbally attractive ways to spend your money, but very few will go to the trouble of walking through this minefield with you.
It is easy to be overwhelmed, most are.
However, thinking about the process in these three buckets offers the opportunity to weed out a lot of the ‘noise’, although it is not easy.
The line that trips many up, even those who spend the time to deeply consider these three buckets, is the breakup of the budget between the two very different types of expenditure inherent in the whole process.
First. The resources you spend to build the brand, such that when someone is aware of the problem and is in a mind to consider solving it, your name comes to mind.
Second. ‘Activation’. The tactical means you use to swing the choice your way at the point of the transaction.
The first is long term, and very hard to measure except with hindsight, by which time the horse has bolted. The second is more immediate and subject to at least a modicum of quantitative measures.
The starting point should always be your objective.
Is it to generate leads, is it to build brand awareness, is it to build trust, and where do all these, and other points in the customers decision processes overlap?
Playing cards by yourself is usually a way to win, but it does not translate into a real game. For that you need a real appreciation of the barriers to winning, and often partners.
Call me when you need a partner who inderstands the game.
Jun 26, 2023 | Communication, Marketing, Social Media
On first glance, the only purpose of a blog post, or indeed any sort of content that comes into your inbox, is to provide some impetus to encourage you towards a transaction.
That remains the case, but if that is the only reason, we have arrived at the point where AI can spit out posts by the dozen that purport to serve that purpose.
Not a good place to spend your time if you are on the receiving end, and it serves to degrade the expected standard of all posts.
By contrast, a post that evolves from an idea, problem, or situation faced by a real business, which is intended to offer some level of insight into the way forward can be of immense value, when the right people find it.
Therein lies the attention challenge of those writing posts intended for the latter reason. How do you get the attention the effort reasonably deserves?
If, like me, you do not care much for the attention, or the lead generation potential of posts, you can then produce them with an entirely different objective.
That objective is to clarify your own thinking sufficiently to be able to articulate it to others. That clarification and articulation is what makes the research, thinking and writing of a post valuable. Whether others see it, think about it, and take some sort of action as a result, is an entirely different challenge.
Posts on StrategyAudit are all of the latter type.
Ideas come from anywhere, and have been the fodder for posts on StrategyAudit for 15 years. There are ideas everywhere. The most useful are those that come from the challenges being faced by those I interact with in some way. These always force creative thinking, the application of one of many ‘mental models’ I have accumulated over 50 years. They often stimulate a creative perspective on what are often mundane and common problems faced in varying ways by all businesses, so are ‘grounded’ by those real situations.
It seems to come back to the thought expressed by Kevin Kelly in an essay in 2008 thinking of the same challenge, as yet not powered by AI, that all you need is 1000 true fans.
Social platforms set out to prevent you doing that by favouring ‘on platform’ communication, while penalising posts that take a reader away. LinkedIn is very explicit about this. Put in a link to an outside site, and you get stuck in ‘LinkedIn Gaol’, just an algorithmic means of severely limiting the number of feeds your posts are fed to. I have been in LinkedIn gaol for years, the only way to see all I write about is to subscribe on the website.
The only way to grab attention is to deserve it, and have those few who find you to refer to others who might benefit. It is a long game, built one by one.
No AI here, guaranteed organic!!
Jun 21, 2023 | Governance, Strategy
Commercial success, that which delivers more than a wage, comes from only two places:
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- Critical thinking
- The ability and willingness to be a bit different, experiment and embrace risk.
Why is it then that the web is full of ‘7 point plans to….’ Templates designed to remove the need to think, and assuring us that if we follow the plan, all will be well.
I have been as guilty as most, reducing some of what I publish on this blog to lists of sequential actions. This sort of headline increases readership of a post significantly, people want packaged solutions that promise an answer to a complex problem but removes the need to think.
I have been as seduced as anyone by the vanity of page views.
The important part of any plan, from the most complex to the mundane list of what you must do today is that it is the result of critical thought.
What is important vs urgent?
Is this the best use of that absolutely finite resource: Your time?
How will this impact on those around me?
General Eisenhower made the observation that ‘plans are worthless, but planning is everything‘. Eisenhower further noted that emergencies were unexpected, and therefore planning for them was impossible.
Noted philosopher Michael Tyson’s contribution is perhaps the best known “everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth”.
Besides, without a plan, and associated goals, how will you ever know how you are performing?
The act of planning should be an act of critical and creative thinking, not filling in a formulaic set of generic questions.
Header credit: Scott Adams with an early question from Dilbert.
Jun 19, 2023 | Customers, Sales
Optimising a sales process is not just about the conversion rate, as that is an outcome, a function of many things that come before and contribute to that outcome. The challenge is more about optimising each stage in the process that leads to a maximised conversion rate.
Over the years there have been many tools that assist the process, BANT being one of the best known. All of them in one way or another recognise a progression through a process that should be simple, but which consultants and others have overcomplicated.
The following 3 part qualification process should play a role.
Basic criteria for qualification.
Does the prospect fit the picture of your ideal customer?
Basic criteria + Fit.
Does the prospect have a need for what you have, do they have a problem you can solve better than anyone else? How compelling to them is your value proposition?
Basic criteria + Fit + Intent.
Is the prospect aware of the problem, are they searching for a solution, have they engaged with you in some way? Are they willing and able to pay for your solution? What elements will drive the timing of their decision to buy now, delay, or decide not to buy?
While this may seem too simple, often the best is also the simplest.
