The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

 

In the film, Benjamin Button does not age, as those around him do, but he does accumulate the memories and knowledge around him as time passes.

Pretty cool, unless the love of your life is stuck in the present, whatever that is.

For years we have recognised the ‘Button Effect’  emerging with brands in the digital age, brands that leverage both sides of the human equation, the so called network effect.

The more it gets used, the more valuable it becomes.

Accountants and accounting standards are confused by this, as all assets depreciate with use.

Not any more!.

Digital products get more valuable with use.

That is why the monsters in the space, Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook combined have the market capitalisation of all but the top few countries in the world at  around $2.5 trillion dollars US.

Staggering stuff.

What makes them so powerful, a position that has been reached in less than 20 years, replacing 100 years of industrial development around the world?

A very few factors seem common to them, and those coming up behind them, particularly the Chinese marketers, Tencent and Alibaba, along with Uber, Netflix, Spotify, and others.

  • They leverage the network effect, becoming the Benjamin Buttons of marketing , becoming more valuable with use
  • They are global, and their products cross cultural boundaries
  • They are in the lead at developing and deploying cutting edge technology, AI, AR, machine learning, whatever you choose to call it, these companies are leading the pack by leveraging behavioural data they collect with use of their platforms.
  • They seem to be inhabited and driven by ‘kids’ younger than my children. ‘Digital natives’ I guess would be the cliché, but none of the drivers of this revolution would be at the top of a 20th century industrial company, they would not have the experience to navigate the hierarchical structures that ran them.

You do not have to be a new age potentially global behemoth to leverage the network  effects available to you. Small businesses everywhere are becoming the Benjamin Buttons of their local markets, but the rules of engagement have changed. What worked for my generation is no longer enough, leveraging the network effects is now an essential ingredient of continuous renewal.

Credit: header photo from the film . 

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

 

My mother lives by herself in a large regional city in NSW. At 90 she is pretty remarkable,  although some of the bits are wearing out, so she has a pharmacological regime that would make your average teenage party-goer green with envy.

Her pills are made up from the actives by a local chemist with the compounding License that allows him to assemble her prescriptions and combine them, which he then delivers weekly in a pack that reflects the changing nature of the prescriptions written by her doctor.

A great service, and the young entrepreneurial pharmacist has the geriatric market in the town sewn up.

I was thinking of him last week when I saw that Amazon had bought US startup Pillpack for almost a billion dollars. As  a result, the share prices of listed pharmacy retailers, Walgreens and others fell into a hole, a now common outcome when Amazon comes around.

Jeff Bezos has long signaled his interest in the pharmacy market, being a part of Drugstore.com in the 90’s which was eventually bought by drug store chain Walgreens for $400 million, and closed down. He has made other investments in various areas of the health industry over a long period, which should have provided an early warning alarm to the incumbents.  More recently he has launched a venture in collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan to disrupt the huge but cosey health insurance market.

I can only wonder at the hand wringing going on in the Walgreens board room. They had a decade to build a moat around their business,  but failed to do so, and now the pirate has returned. This is exactly the same mistake Blockbuster made a couple of years later, by dismissing the overtures of Netflicks, and disappeared as a result. By contrast, the young pharmacist in Armidale will be well insulated, and I suspect will have his own plans to keep his business thriving. Meanwhile I suspect the Pharmacy Guild in Australia will again tread the road of trying to use the regulations as a protective mechanism, and try to fight the tide of change, which is ultimately going to fail.

As I have noted before, love him or hate him, Jeff Bezos is changing the world, perhaps like none before him. The incumbent public  and private institutions of our democratic western economy simply seem unable to accommodate the inevitability of the changes and their impact, and show no sign of being able to evolve sufficiently to do so. The assault on the pharmacy market is simply another example of the speed and certainty of change, which without sufficient ‘strategic intelligence’ being applied, will be the end for status quo driven incumbents.

When you need some of that rare strategic intelligence, more focused than is demonstrated in these pages, call me.

 

How ‘Systems Thinking’ should be applied to marketing and governance.

How ‘Systems Thinking’ should be applied to marketing and governance.

We think about marketing reasonably often in business, not often enough, but reasonably often.

However, our thinking is usually muddled, and wrong.

Let me explain.

We think about marketing as if it was a discreet set of actions that can change the fortunes of a business.

The ‘marketing function’ sits alongside sales, production, finance, IT, and the other functional units in a business, that collectively build the success of the business.

Problem is we all see the whole as the sum of its parts, not as an interdependent and related system that is more than the sum of its parts.

Take an engine out of a car, and leave it on the ground. No matter how good the engine, it cannot move itself. It is utterly dependent on the interaction of the other parts of the car to be mobile.

Take the best bits of a range of cars, the BMW engine, Mercedes gearbox, Lotus suspension, Ferrari body shape, the best of the best, and put them together. Logically with all the best bits you will get a superior end result.

Rubbish.

The bits do not fit together in any coherent manner. Individually they may be the best of the best, but together they are little  more than a box of parts.

The whole system is what counts, designing the system from the outside in, not from the inside out.

For some years now I have been referring to the marketing and sales functions together as one function: ‘Revenue Generation’.

While this is better than  the artificial separation into sales and marketing, it is still way short of a system necessary to generate a profit, as that requires the processes that develop, produce and deliver the product to be a part of the system.

We all solve problems from within our own disciplines, that is the way we are trained. We are trained to see a situation from within the confines of the discipline, not from the outside from where we can touch, feel, and see the context.

Outsiders are always better able to see the size and shape of a building than those sitting inside it. Exactly the same as having a knowledgeable and constructively critical thought leader who sits outside your business, looking at the competitive, regulatory  and strategic context in which the business competes for a living.

This was supposed to be the function of a board, outside experts reflecting on the sum of the parts rather than the individual parts, developing strategy to build success for the long term, and seeking optimisation of the assets deployed. Often we seem to fail at that as well, as the outsiders get caught up in the complication and protection of the status quo, and their own position in it, forgetting why they are there in the first place. You only have to observe a little bit of the current Financial Services Royal Commission to see plenty of evidence of that.

 

How do you measure culture?

How do you measure culture?

With an increasing regularity, ‘Culture’ emerges as an item to be ‘managed’. I fully expect it to be front and centre before the end of the current Royal Commission into the financial sector, as most of the poor practises we have seen , immoral, unethical, and some down-right illegal, stem from a poor culture, lack of leadership in the true sense of the word, and a failure of governance.

Culture pervades every organisation of more than  1 person. It is how we interact, behave, collaborate, and deal with other people in the pursuit of whatever objectives, personal, and commercial that are front of mind, but mostly is just about how the job gets done.

Mundane as that is, culture is the determining factor.

It truly bothers me that an outcome of the Royal Commission may be that a legislated  regime be put into place to regulate culture.  The boffins in Canberra have no idea what it is, and how to define it, but that may  not stop them regulating for it.

It is also a fact that ‘culture’ is an outcome, like a brand, of a host of small  behaviours, interactions, and processes over time that added together deliver an outcome we call ‘culture’. It is not an item to be managed as you would an expense item  in the P&L.

To my mind, culture is grown from the inside, but it responds to the outside environment. Growing a culture is not dissimilar to the Japanese art of ‘Bonsai’, the cultivation of dwarf plants, grown into all sorts of intricate shapes.

The bonsai gardener starts with the raw material of the plant, and the environment in which it will be growing, then over time, it encourages the characteristics they want, and cuts off those that do not want before they can take shape and become an integral part of the plants physiology, disfiguring the outcome. A leader who acts as a bonsai gardener for the growing evolving culture, will fertilise the behaviours that add to the development of the envisaged end result, while nipping in the bud those that do not add to the end result, all the time training others in the art of bonsai.

 

Making a commitment to the cultural style that suits the strategic and competitive choices being made is a first step.

What culture do you want? It seems to me that the starting point should be envisioning where you want to end up. No different from setting any other objective, as it provides a consistent framework for making those difficult trade-offs and compromises that become necessary. Therefore decide what sort of culture you want, one obsessed with customer service, innovation, operational productivity, attention to detail, whatever it may be, and behave accordingly. All will have elements of each of the others in them, but there should be an overriding objective.

Are you committed for the long term? Culture is not something you erect in a financial year, it is an incremental process, built over time and very dependent on the CEO. It is the boss who makes the running with the culture that prevails, and the boss must simply walk the talk, every single day, in every way. This can be painful, and the board of a business that has the wrong boss needs to make a choice about the culture it wants and recruit accordingly.

What measurement tools do you want to use? There are a lot of choices out there, a simple google search may lead you to the conclusion that this is a task that can be outsourced to a fancy consulting firm with pretty measurement tools. Those that in my experience try and either ignore or outsource ‘culture,’ end up with at best a neutral result, and usually a poor one. Most of the tools used are pretty simple when pared back to their essential elements.

However, the common element is that they are subjective, and only really relevant as a measure of change over time. Treating a measurement of ‘culture’ as an objective measure of performance at a point in time as you would with a P&L to measure profitability will be misleading. It is the trends that really count, not the quantum of any measurement you might take.

Measuring ‘Culture’ like most things can be, and should be, made as simple as possible. This is itself is a challenging notion. Much easier to have a series of complicated dashboards that measure all sorts of things, but are really there just to make those in authority feel better.

Employee referrals and sales leads.  An employee is hardly likely to refer their own networks to the business if they are unhappy.

Customer complaint responses. Timeliness and follow through are always good indications of a customer facing culture. Every business needs customers, and dealing with problems that arise should be a first order task.

Employee turnover, and rehires. A turnover of people is natural, and I would regard as healthy. The tipping point is around the point where they are leaving because they are tired, bored and not learning anything, and where they have acquired new skills and are keen to test them in new challenges. Similarly, capable people who wish to return is a good indicator. Large businesses can also track the internal movement of employees across functions and geographies for the same reasons.

Employee exit surveys. Understanding why employees leave can be a vital piece of information about the culture, and existing management. At exit, employees are often more likely to ‘tell all’ than under other circumstances. Such an interview should be routine, friendly and constructive, and not conducted by the exiting employees line manager, and certainly not  by the HR intern, but by someone of stature in the business.

Employee Survey.  Regular employee surveys  can deliver quantitative data across a range of cultural variables that makes measurement of changes over time possible. It is always better that they are anonymous and done by a third party.  It is usually the truth that you get when you engage with the operating level employees, those on the production line, the truckies, warehouse hands, they see and suffer from the impacts of poor practises every day.

Customer survey, as above.

Supplier survey, as above, and even more important that they be done by an external party, and certainly not by the sales force, or including only those recommended for interview by the sales force. Suppliers are often in a position to give great insights into cultural drivers.

Employee Net promoter Score. NPS is now an established measure amongst customers, there is  no reason  I can see  not to use it amongst employees. It is a more complicated version of employee surveys.

The ‘carpark’ test. If it is a race to get out at 5.00, it is a sign of employee disengagement, a poor cultural outcome, and easily assessed rather than measured simply by being there and watching.  The behaviour being exhibited by operational staff is the ultimate test of ‘culture’, and you can and should observe that in many ways.  How many smiles and greetings does the ‘Boss’ get during a factory walk-through, how happy are staff to interact with senior staff on matters trivial as well as important, how well do senior staff listen to and provide feedback to operational staff, and so on. While I call it the carpark test, it is really just being respectful  of others, building their their sense of personal value, irrespective of their role.

 

As a final point, we all talk about culture as if it was a ‘thing’. It is not, it is as noted, the gradual, incremental outcome of thousands of individual interactions. You can dictate culture all you like, but it will have no effect. It is only when you change the individual interactions, one by one, that the evolved culture will slowly emerge.

Photo credit: Dave Gammon via Flikr

8 ingredients for  an idea stew

8 ingredients for  an idea stew

Ideas do not emerge from nothing, despite the hype, they do not just appear in the shower. They are always a product of a process, conscious or unconscious that connects and curates thoughts, knowledge, ideas from other domains, that can be used in a different way, connected where there was not pre-existing connection, and that have a hook of some sort that does something new. As J.M. Keynes observed:  ‘The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones’

Ideas evolve and like any evolution require a set of conditions that encourages individual survival, evolution over time, and eventually success for a very few.

There are 8 ingredients to an idea stew.

Allow Prep time.

Every stew has a base, a foundation upon which the variations can be built. While the base is often obscured, it is nevertheless critical. Taking your time to determine just what you have available for  the stew, that will meet the objective, and then organizing the ingredients in the right amounts to be added in a sensible order with any necessary ‘sub-assembly’ being done will improve the outcome. Your idea stew is built in the same way, on a solid  foundation with research, and the results of previous trial and error to hand. The more work you put into the prep, the better the outcome usually is.

Have a pot.

To create a stew, you need something in which to hold the ingredients as they cook, each ingredient influencing the others, and the outcome. Making a great stew without the resources necessary, the time, access to ingredients, the right implements,  and obviously a kitchen, is pretty challenging, next to impossible. While you do not necessarily need the top of the range, you do need enough to manage the process with some degree of control and efficiency.

Have a deadline.

Usually when preparing a stew, it is for something specific. Dinner tomorrow night, for the weekend when the neighbors come over, or standby for the freezer.  Creating an idea stew is no different. The presence of a deadline, perhaps counter-intuitively, creates tension, pressure to get things done, and it focusses attention on the details so things do not get left undone.

Have a picture of the outcome.

The stew you are cooking has to serve a purpose, it has an audience, and the audience shapes the stew. Just as you would not put a pile of chili in a stew your young kids will be eating, you need to ensure that the ingredient in your ideas stew are consistent with the sort of outcome you are seeking.

Be prepared for diversity.

Sometimes, someone who may be a great pastry cook, but knows little about stews can bring across something from his discipline that adds something very different to the stew.  While this diversity in the ‘cooks’ often draws comment, the last thing you want if you are looking for a different stew, is to have only those who are used to the current recipe involved in thinking about the options that may be there.

Have a process plan.

Every stew is made in some sort of sequence, separate steps taken in some order, with interdependencies amongst the ingredients. While each step is not necessarily fixed, there are some things that must come before others can be properly done, to get the best outcome. A stew also takes time for the flavor to develop, for the little touches to be added that make all the difference, a pinch of this, a dash of that, all in the context of the plan, to avoid mucking up the result with that little last minute addition.

Creativity: The vital ingredient.

Perhaps a better word is ‘catalyst’ in a commercial context, as there are elements of creativity in all of us. However, for many it has been beaten out by the education we have, the institutions we work for, and at a more base psychological level, some of us are simply not risk-takers, not outside the box thinkers, so are of limited value for creative input. It is in effect the difference between a very good cook, and a chef. Give a great cook a complicated recipe and they will execute it by following both the recipe and the methodology, but give them a limited pantry and no recipe, and many will struggle. By contrast, the chef gets bored with the recipe, and  prefers to experiment. The outcomes are varied, most will be disasters, bit a few will be spectacular successes. Businesses succeed by doing the same things over and over, getting  better at it all  the time. A necessary ingredient of this mix is to get rid of those who cannot follow the process. However, for a business to renew itself, to cook an entirely new stew, it requires those who do not go by the rules, who think outside the box, sometimes outside the postcode. You also need to keep diligent records so that the unexpected great outcome can be reproduced, often a challenge for the creative ones who get bored with the recording when they can be doing. Pity you got rid of them all because they are a pain in the arse to manage!

Ask a friendly customer.

Asking someone you hope might put their hand into their pocket and give you their heard-earned in return for a taste of your stew seems to be a good idea at some point before you commit to the expensive launch. Generally, the earlier the better, and the more informed and critical their opinion of your evolving stew, the better.

A marketers explanation of the difference between an ‘Intangible Asset’ and ‘Goodwill’

A marketers explanation of the difference between an ‘Intangible Asset’ and ‘Goodwill’

When you look at a balance sheet, the intangible elements of it are either the outcome of ‘boilerplate’ accounting standards that bear little resemblance to reality, or are the function of a management narrative. Neither is of much use, and both can be destructive.

For example: under the accounting standards, intangible assets are listed on a company’s balance sheet only if they are acquired, and therefore have an identifiable cost, and usually lifespan that can be amortised. Assets developed internally have no place on a balance sheet.

Of course, neither goodwill or intangible assets as recorded have little ’cause and effect’ connection with the share market valuation, which is all about future cash flows.

The Coca Cola logo is generally ‘valued’ in the billions, but does not appear in the balance sheet because it was built internally, rather than acquired. Were a company to acquire Coca Cola, there would then be a value that could be pinned to the logo, which would then appear on their balance sheet. The caveat is that there are mechanisms to place a value on an intangible asset that can be recorded, usually involving independent valuations, but these valuations come with a grain of salt.

A further example. When developing a new product, the outcomes of that effort may be seen as an intangible asset, but it appears nowhere except the P&L, as development expenses. Assume the product is a pharmaceutical product, years in the development, and very expensive, this is a drain on cash flow in the hope that there will be a pay-off. Prior to commercial launch, it has been patented, the efficacy proven, then the patent becomes a tangible asset, as a dollar value can be attached, and the patent is tradeable. The brand name of the new product will become a new intangible asset, not reflected anywhere beyond an implied connection to the value of the patent. Over time if the product is a market success, the value of the patent will increase to reflect the future cash flows that will result from ownership, to a peak, after which the cash flows will be subjected to competition from generic products that will become available as the patent period runs out, so the value is reduced. The brand name has no value in the books, until it is sold, perhaps along with the patent,

The key distinction between goodwill and intangible assets is that the goodwill has been purchased, so has a market defined value. Google paid $12.5 Billion in 2011 for Motorola Mobility, entirely  for the patent library they owned. At the time, Motorola was close to broke, their products which had led the mobile phone market had suddenly become irrelevant when they missed the smart phone revolution. The patents were transferred to Google, who then sold the remaining  hardware business to Lenovo for $3 billion, without the key software patents. On paper, Google took a $8.5 billion loss, but retained the patent library and intellectual capital associated with the Motorola development labs. This gave them greater leverage with the users of Android mobile software, predominantly Samsung, and protection against the relentless patent wars with Apple. A great deal.

Lenovo would have an item on their balance sheet that values their purchases from Google, but there is nothing on Googles balance sheet beyond the  ‘loss’ they incurred in the transaction, which fails to reflect the future value they will derive from the ownership of the patent library.

However, there is a sea change going on. According to research company Ocean Tomo, the proportion of US Fortune 500 companies stock market valuations represented by intangible assets has gone from 17% in 1975 to 87% in 2015.

The lesson here is that the world has changed, so called ‘soft’ assets are now more valuable than the physical assets that accounting systems were designed to track.  Focussing effort on building those soft assets will pay long term dividends, which cannot be readily accounted for in the monthly financial reports.

For most of my client base, the notion of intangible assets is far-fetched, until they come to valuing their business, when a primary asset becomes the relationship they have with their major customers, and how ‘sticky’ they might be seen post a sales transaction. It is this ‘stickiness’ that is a primary driver for the acquiring company to keep the key personnel employed on a pay-out contract based on a period of time and key KPI’s, to better manage the smooth transfer of the relationships.

Header from http://www.oceantomo.com/2015/03/04/2015-intangible-asset-market-value-study/