13 strategic trends that will drive small business performance in 2015

2015

Small business is at a crossroads as we move into 2015.

Either they embrace the opportunities and tools presented by the disruption of the “old ways” by digital technology, or they slowly, and in some cases, quickly, become irrelevant, obsolete and broke as customers move elsewhere.

Your choice, as much of the technology can now be relatively  easily outsourced,  and at a very reasonable cost, certainly less than most would expect. The two major challenges in outsourcing, snake oil salesmen and not knowing what you want and need,  are little different to any other category of purchased service.

So, to the trends that will influence your business in 2015 that you need to be at the very least aware of, and in most cases take some sort of pre-emptive action.

 

  • Marketing technology will continue its rise and rise. The thousands of small marketing technology players who are currently emerging will be forcibly integrated, as the big guys buy “Martec” real estate. Adobe, Microsoft, et al will spend money, and the little guys will be swallowed as the gorillas fill the holes in their offerings, and new segments emerge. At the other end of the scale, there will remain plenty of options for smaller businesses to step into the automated marketing space. The current rash of innovations to make life easier for small businesses   will continue and as those smaller single purpose tools gain traction, and more are launched to fill the niches that exist to service small businesses.
  • Peer to peer marketing  will continue to grow at “Moores law” type rates. Jerry Owyangs honeycomb diagram and data tells it all. Almost any service I can think of has the potential too be disrupted in some way by the peer to peer capabilities being delivered by technology.
  • Content creation as a process. The next evolution in marketing, the move that I think “content” will start to make from being individual pieces of information produced in an ad hoc manner to being a process that is highly individualised, responsive to the specific context, and informed by the behaviour of the individual recipient scraped from the digital ecosystem. It means that content creation needs to be come an integrated  process, more than a “campaign” . The term “content” will become redundant, it is just “marketing”, focussing on the individual customer.
  • Marketing will evolve even more strongly as the path to the top corporate job. Functional expertise is becoming less important, what is important is the ability to connect the dots in flattened organisations that work on collaborative projects rather than to a functional tune. This trend is as true for small businesses as it is for major corporations. There will still be challenges as many marketers are really just mothers of clichés, but those relying on the cliché and appearances for credibility are becoming more obvious as the marketing expertise in the boardroom increases, and the availability of analytics quickly uncovers the charlatans. This will make the marketing landscape increasingly competitive on bases other than price.

 

  • Recognition that marketing is the driving force of any successful enterprise will become accepted, even by the “beanies”. Seth Godin has been banging on for years about the end of the industrial/advertising model, the old school of interruption, but many enterprises have continued to deploy the old model, but  I sense that the time has come.  2015 will be the year that sees marketing finally  takes over.
  • Video will become bigger part of marketing, particularly advantaging the small businesses that have the drive to deploy it and the capability to manage the outsourcing of the bits that they either cannot do, or cannot do economically. The old adage of a picture telling a thousand words is coming to life in twitter streams, instagram shares, and all social media platforms. The video trend will be supported by increasing use of graphics in all forms, but particularly data visualisations as a means to communicate meaning from the mountains of data that we can now generate. The density of data on the web is now such that new ways to cut though, communicate and engage need to be found, and I suspect those will all employ visuals in some form, perhaps interactive?

 

  • Pay to go ad free is a trend that will evolve suddenly, to some degree it is an evolution of subscription marketing. Free to date platforms will charge to be ad free,  whilst new platforms and models such as the Dollar Shave Club will probably evolve.
  • The death of mass and the power of triibes will become more evident. The “cat pictures ” nature of  content of social media platforms will reduce as marketers discover smart ways to package and deliver messages that resonate and motivate action. The agility of digitally capable small businesses will open up opportunities for them their bigger rivals will not see, or not be compatible with their existing business models.
  • Local,  provenance, and  “real”. Marketing is about stories, so here is a trend made for  marketers, and you do not have too be a multinational, just have a good story, rooted in truth and humanity. ‘Hyper-local” will become a significant force. Marketing aimed at small geographies, such as is possible by estate agents, and “local” produce, such as the increasing success of “Hawkesbury Harvest” in Sydney, and the “Sydney Harvest” value chain initiative.
  • Paid social media will evolve more quickly than any of us anticipate, or would be forecast by a simple extrapolation. Twitter will go paid, travelling the route Facebook took to commercialize their vast reach. Some will hate it as it filters their feeds, others  will welcome the reduction of the stream coming at them from which they try and drink. Anyway, twitter et al will set out to make money by caitalising on their reach.
  • Social will grab more of the market  in 2015 than it has had, even though the growth has been huge over the last few years. Small businesses will either embrace social and content marketing, in which case their agility and flexibility will put them in a competitively strong position, or if they fail to do so, they will fall further behind, and become casualties.
  • The customer should always be the focal point of any organisation, but often they fail to get a mention. It is becoming more important than ever that you have a “360 degree” view of your customers, as the rapid evolution of social media and data generation and mining is enabling an ever more detailed understanding of the behaviour drivers of consumers. The density of highly targeted marketing, both organic and paid is increasing almost exponentially, so if you do not have this 360 degree view, your marketing will miss the mark.
  • Treat with caution all the predictions you read, keep an absolutely open mind, as the only thing we know for sure about them is that they will be wrong, as with this ripper from Bloomberg who predicted the failure of the iphone. However, as with statistical models, quoting George E.P. Box who said “Essentially, all models are wrong, it is just that some are useful” perhaps some of the predictions you find around this time of the year will be useful, by adding perspective and an alternative view to your deliberations for 2015.

 

As a final thought, if you think your kid may be good at marketing, be sure they learn maths and statistics. “Maths & Stats”  will increasingly be the basis of marketing, and the source of highly paid jobs and service business start-ups.

Have a great 2015.

Allen

Want to survive 2015? Here is a Marketing inventory audit template for you

"marketing" inventory

“marketing” inventory

Taking inventory is one of  the most boring things, but necessary things we all need to do. Understanding what you have in stock is fundamental to determining the operational priorities for the future.

Taking physical inventory is familiar to everyone, it is an essential part of staying in  business, but how many take an inventory of their marketing assets?

We spend time and money creating things that we hope will deliver leads, or push them through the conversion stages, but how often do we stop and think about optimising the leverage those assets are generating?.

The Christmas break is a great time to get some of this essential stuff done, to examine from the recipients point of view, how well your marketing assets actually work. Following is a list of the typical marketing assets even a small business should have, and often will have without really considering the  implications, consequences and costs.

Planning and tracking.

    1. Do you have a marketing plan that reflects the short to medium term activities needed to deliver on a longer term strategic plan?
    2. Is there an activity plan for marketing investments that outlines the timing, costs and expected returns from marketing activity in 2015?
    3. Have you put in place the measures that will enable you to calculate a Return on your marketing investments at each stage of the engagement funnel?
    4. Are there tracking measures in place that will enable you to improve your returns?

Customers.

    1. How well do you know your existing customers?
      • Who are they?
      • What problem are you solving for them?
      •  Would they be prepared to recommend you to others?
      • What is your share of their wallet?
      • Why do they use you instead of your competitor?
    2. Do you know who your priority target customers are?
      • Are they defined to the point where you could personalise them?
      • Are your communications “personalised” and directed to their specific needs and challenges?
      • Do you understand their behaviour
    3. Do you understand why you lost  customers, and have you made the choice not to spend resources to keep, or get them back?
    4. Are there some ex customers you are happy are ex? And why

Digital assets

    1. Are your websites and social media platforms linked and cross posting?
    2. Are your profiles optimised on each platform?
    3. Are tracking codes in place and optimised on each web page and platform?
    4. Do you  work the key search terms for your segments naturally into the headlines and body copy of posts?
    5. Are the auto responder emails appropriate for the trigger response?
    6. Do you say “Thank You” enough?
    7. Are you capturing data at every opportunity?
      •  The “ABC of sales” or “Always be closing” school of sales  has changed to “always be collecting”.
      • Are you using analytics to test, test, and test again to improve your conversion rates?
      • Do you track conversion rates at each stage of the sales funnel?

Relationships

    1. Are you seeking ways to build and leverage relationships with suppliers, and natural partners?
    2. What is the balance of your sales efforts between nurturing existing relationships to building new ones, and is that balance appropriate?
    3. How would you rate your relationships with your best customers?
      • Have you asked them?

Capability building

    1. How deep and appropriate is your management “bench” or in its absence, contractors to fill gaps?
    2. Have you defined the capabilities necessary to sustain growth and profitability, and set about building on the existing, and filling any holes?

Your time.

As the owner of a  business, the most valuable asset you have is your time. Problem is usually there is  not enough of it, and others do not value it so try to use it to their purposes.

    1. Do you have the business/life balance right? I know it is a cliché, but that is why it is true.
    2. Do you explicitly set out to work “on your business” rather than in it? Another cliché, but also true.
    3. Does the business run without your detailed day to day involvement?
      1. If not, when will that day come?

Financial management.

I often get puzzled looks when as a marketing consultant I bang on about things financial. However, it does not matter how good your marketing is if the product is crap, or delivered late, or sold at below cost. Financial management is the foundation of any enterprise, as much as marketing is the essential ingredient for success.

    1. Do you have a cash flow forecast?
    2. Do you know and actively your costs, fixed and variable?
    3. Have you calculated your break even?
    4. Have you a revenue forecast and operational planning in place?

The above is just a start, a “taster” for 2015 which I expect to be a difficult year, so those who are best prepared, will do well, the others… well, they sell flowers at the funeral home.

Thanks for reading, responding and sharing my musings through 2014. I am going to take a break from the keyboard for a short time. Have a safe and merry Christmas, and I will see you in 2015.

Allen

 

Do what is wrong for your competitor, and win.

 

"Only the paranoid survive". Andy Gove

“Only the paranoid survive”. Andy Gove

We spend heaps of time setting out to satisfy customers, do what is right for them, to ensure our success, no argument, but is it enough?

To add another dimension to your competitive efforts, ask yourself the simple question “what would really hurt the opposition?”

If the answer is clear, you probably should do it to them before they either do it to you, or address the weakness.

It does not matter if you are BHP or a local business, there is a always a strong Darwinian trait displayed by those who are successful.

In my past, I spend a significant amount of time in the dairy industry, lots of lessons, but amongst them one that demonstrates the essential truth of commercial Darwinism.

My major competitor made an inordinate amount of their total profit from one product in one state, a situation that had evolved over many years, and seemed unassailable. The margins they made on this product would have funded a substantial amount of activity elsewhere that was causing us grief. The board of the dairy co-operative  I worked for would not allow me to aggressively attack that profit pool, not being prepared to lose a little bit in order to assist the competitor lose a lot.

They were concerned at retaliatory action, correctly, but the capacity to retaliate would have been limited  by the impact on their profits of a successful attack by us, and the fact that our business did  not have any equivalent weak point that made us way less vulnerable. My view at the time, and still, was that the real reason they were unprepared to be aggressive was that it was not “gentlemanly” and the dairy industry in those days, which was still evolving from a lot of smaller co-operatives, carried some of the competitive baggage of being a co-operative.

Gentlemen did not do those things!

Competitively stupid  decision, and an opportunity lost, but all this had nothing to do with the customer, beyond setting out to disrupt the comfortable relationship they had with my competitors brand in South Australia.

Some years after I left the business, my erstwhile target, having addressed their competitive weaknesses, successfully mounted a successful hostile takeover of the my previous employer, who still acted as though the competitive market place was somewhere that gentlemen met to have afternoon tea.

Sometimes we lose sight of the playing field as we play the game, we talk about competitive advantage, but often just in the context of the customer, and the value they receive, but forget the flip side of competitive advantage, finding a way to belt your competitor over the head.

Legally of course, and within the boundaries of acceptable behaviour, but nevertheless, a belting.

4 quadrants for comprehensive customer definition

strategyaudit.com.au

Know your customer. www.strategyaudit.com.au

One of the absolute foundations of successful commercial activity is to be able to define your primary “customer” in considerable detail. The more the better.

Years ago I watched as market researcher asked a group to define the brand we were researching as if it was a person walking through the door. The insights gained were enormous, and it is a practise I have used ever since.

However, like most good ideas, they evolve with use.

I now use a quadrant, with the customer in the middle.

    1. Demographics. This is as far as most go, defining customers by age, sex, financial and social measures, with or without children, homeowners or renters, and so on. Necessary, easy,  but very limited analysis.
    2. External drivers. What are the things in the environment over which the customer does not have control, that impact on their behaviour. Answering this question requires choices to be made, as a 30 year old single  woman working full time will behave entirely differently  to her married twin sister who is at home looking after a couple of rug-rats, and you must choose which you want to appeal to. The range of variables to be considered  is huge, as are the potential responses.
    3. Internal factors. The sorts of things that people can manage and respond to for themselves, their goals, aspirations, questions they face, and the  choices they will be making in their lives. Understanding the psychology and personality of your customers helps you talk to them. No surprise there, because you can talk about they things that value and like to talk about.
    4. “Who” are they? The fourth quadrant is the behavioural picture you can draw by understanding the nuances and interactions of the first three. Jumping to this quadrant without intensively interrogating the first three will almost inevitably leave holes, but having said that, this quadrant does evolve as you iterate in marketing activity and understand better the behavioural changes that come from differing combinations of messages and service delivery.

I like to be at the point in this process where you can actually visualise the person, and associate them with someone you know well, someone whose behaviour you can anticipate. At that point, the communications you are writing, irrespective of the means of delivery, you can have that person you know well in your mind, and write for them.

The definition of your primary customers should be a constant on marketing agendas. It can easily become complicated by market structures and many other factors, so should be consistently  under active consideration.  Several of my clients are small businesses who sell to retailers of various types. By necessity, they need to consider both the retailer, who is in fact their customer and to whom the sell, and the consumers, to whom they market as separate.

Quantifying “Value”

1932 Rolls Royce Phantom 11

1932 Rolls Royce Phantom 11

I bang on about “Value” a lot, in all sorts of contexts, and using all sorts of examples and metaphors.

Defining the components of value is challenging, as value to every individual is different in differing contexts.

Value can be described as the difference between the price of an item or service, and the utility the buyer derives from delivery of those goods or services. It is made up of a myriad of variables, speed and reliability of service, timeliness, design, warranties, intrinsic cost of the components, and many, many others unique to the individual and the circumstances they face.

The core challenge of an analysis of Value is that price is quantitative, but everything else is qualitative. Every persons calculation of value will vary according to the relevant factors and the weighting allocated in any set of circumstances.

So what?

Well, the conclusion must be that defining the behavioral characteristics of your target market as closely as you possibly can is essential to maximising the mix of factors to be delivered that the customer will count positively in their calculation of “value”.

Specifying the factors that they will include in a calculation of quality, and understanding the weighting they may allocate in differing circumstances will significantly  assist you to craft messages that will engage them in some way.

Often the value derived from an item is in the way of a reward, the pleasure derived from use. A $15,000 KIA is just about as reliable a set of wheels for a journey from point A to Point B these days,  but wouldn’t that journey be far more pleasurable in a Ferrari, or BMW, or 1932 Phantom 11 Roller?

There is value in the pleasure, and the imagery usage delivers, and often it is way more important than any quantitative utility derived from use, it is just hard to define.

Assisting with the process of defining the behavior drivers of customers, a Customer Value Audit, is a core part of the StrategyAudit process, going as close as possible to quantifying the components of value for each individual.

PS. Spooky. Bernadette Jiwa, a really accomplished marketing thinker, even though she is a “sand-groper” today posted on Value, as I did. A thought provoking example, and I cannot but wonder at the co-incidence.

Great minds Bernie??

3 “shares” vital to success.

share of engagement

Success these days is hard won, how do you go about winning your share?

Most progress of a sales prospect through the sales funnel happens with some sort of design in mind, rather than accident, even though the actual  process is usually chaotic. As the one setting out to engage, there are things that need to be done to maximise the leverage that can be applied without exerting any “hard sell” pressure on a prospective customer, poison in this day of sales mobility.

There are three headline of questions that you can ask yourself, and then reflect the answers in the manner in which you communicate, in every way from the published ads, to the website, location signage, the words your staff use, and the way you follow up any contact.

What is your Share of Attention?

    • The world we now live in is one where everyone is bombarded with messages almost every moment, from every imaginable device and location from the sophisticated and targeted offer on your own mobile phone to the ad on the back of the dunney door in the shopping centre. Those marketing their goods and services are in life and death competition just to get noticed, and extract the few seconds it takes for someone to skim a headline, and hopefully be sufficiently intrigued to take some action. Usually that action at the first point is just to read or listen to the rest of the message.
    • Who is it for? Nothing can be for everyone, and but too often this simple and basic fact of marketing life is ignored. The targeted ad to a mobile phone number is way more challenging to assemble than the general ad in the dunney door which can only discriminate by gender.  Gaining a share of attention of  someone in the market for a new car has to involve recognising the personal circumstances of that person. Setting out to sell a two seater sports car to a lady with one child and another on the way is usually a waste of effort, better to focus on delivering a car that will meet her particular needs, more likely a 4 door sedan that fits her budget and preferences. The process of answering the question “who is it for” will always throw up uncomfortable choices. In days past, as someone who spent millions in advertising on the 80’s and 90’s, the typical target audience was something like ‘women 25-40, with children” It was about as good as we could do in those days, with a bit of U&A added. Nowadays, that broad description is so inadequate as to be laughable.
    • How are you going to reach them, to create an awareness that you are in a position to meet their need or solve their problem, when and f it occurs. The tools of the web have been absolute game-changers here.

 

What is your Share or engagement?

 

    • Why should a prospect be giving you some of their most valuable resource, their time? To be worthy of peoples time, you need to add value in some way to build a share of their brain, to get them to think about what it is you have to offer and how that offer can be of value to them.
    • Why should they buy from you? In almost all cases, a buyer has options when it comes to buying something. Being clear about why the chosen vendor should be you is fundamental to getting the sale. To continue the analogy above, a car dealership that has some female sales personnel, and who have as a part of their marketing efforts a pick-up and delivery service from the local day-care centres is more likely to make the sale to our pregnant Mum than a dealership full of men emerging from the workshop with grease to the elbows, calling prospective female customers “Luv”.
    • In sales with long lead time, there is a process that most prospects will go through, from initial awareness of a need through often several stages of engagement, before a sale can be made. Tactics vary through this sales funnel, but one thing remains consistent, the sale goes to those who are constantly working all points in the funnel, being available to the prospects, and . Perhaps the best salesman ever, Joe Girard who sold 13,001 new cars over a 12 year career in one dealership, a feat that sees him in the Guinness book  of records. Joe not only never missed an opportunity to engage, and develop a relationship, and once you were on his radar, he created opportunities to speak to you, all in the days before the internet. Once you had bought a car from Joe, you got a post card about monthly from him, always thanking you for your business, congratulating you on a birthday or promotion at work, and offering help in some way. When it came time to buy Another car, Joe was the only salesman most people spoke to, as they knew him, trusted him, and understood he would be there for them.

What is your Share of Wallet?

    • Share of wallet is an absolutely vital and often overlooked measure.  When you have created a customer, ask yourself how much that customer buys over a period that you could supply. If they spend $1,000 dollars a year on products similar to yours, but you sell them only $200, your share of wallet is 20%. To continue the story of Joe Girard, he knew that the average time between new car purchases was about 3 years, so sales cycle his typical customers “wallet”  was about $20,000 every three years, and he stayed in regular contact, so that when the purchase time came around, his share was high, I have been told as high as 60%. Given some people moved away, some died, and some just changed car brands for any number of reasons, that is an astonishing figure.
    • Defining the wallet is usually a challenging exercise, what to include, what to exclude, and over what time frame. My advise is always to calculate the wallet over the average purchase cycle time, for cars, 3  years ago it was about 3 years, for refrigerators it may be 10 years, for womens fashion it may be a couple of months.  A friend of mine, a professional woman shops almost exclusively at a particular retailer.  They know her sizes and  preferences, offer her an exclusive first look at anything new that comes in that they think she might like, deliver on a few minutes notice, collaborate with the shoe shop, and accessories retailers in the vicinity to ensure everything is matched, and do a number of other small things that ensure she simply has no reason to go anywhere else. I suspect their share of my friends considerable wallet is very high indeed, and they have defined it to include the  things that go with their products, on which they make no money, but it adds to he service they provide.

 

None of this is easy, there are no formulas that work for every case, but there are general rules that can be applied. In addition, today, everything is measurable, every time you reach out to a customer or prospective customer you can measure the effectiveness of that action.   Joe Girard would have been in hog heaven.