How retailers can read the consumers mind.

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Businesses spend many millions trying to understand the way consumers consider the choices confronting them in a supermarket. With up to 30,000 items on shelf, and some categories having hundreds of choices, it is a key consideration.

A mix of psychology, data science,  habitual behaviour, discretionary spending dollars available, and individual preferences all play a role.

A complicated mix.

However, there is a way to at least clarify part of the mix.

Consumers use decision trees, usually without thinking about them when they are in a supermarket making their purchases.

Some purchases are automatic, a habitual choice, others are made after a considered set of choices on a range of factors important to the individual are made, and there are, obviously, many shades of this continuum that apply to a highly personal process.

Imagine a consumer approaching the dairy case looking for fruited yoghurt. Some may just buy their usual brand, flavour and size irrespective of everything else. Others will make a series of choices that will vary for every person, and may look something like the decision tree below.

Decision tree It will differ for each individual, some will choose the brand first, others the flavour, or the size and price, and a whole range of variations on these factors, but based on the total sales, supermarkets will range products, and give them shelf positions and space based on sales, gross margins, delivered margins, and various promotional strategies. They also use a decision tree.

Retailers and suppliers spend huge amounts of effort, and resources.  on this category management exercise, trying to read the consumers mind, and anticipate their reactions to various combinations that are available to them.

It is a data intensive exercise, well suited to the “big data” techniques that are evolving around us. Combining checkout data with store loyalty cards is now becoming commonplace,  what is emerging currently is the integration of mobile and social media data into the mix.

As you walk into the store to buy something, there has already  been lots of effort gone into reading your mind, and there will be lots of effort and money expended in store in an effort to manage your purchase decisions.

10 X 8 Framework for a content StrategyAudit

Content 3

These days with the ubiquity of mobile and social, almost everyone is a media channel.

Recognising this simple fact changes the formula for media success. In the old days, the formula used so successfully by mass marketers was:

Money X mass media = Sales.

This used to work, no longer, now  that media has fragmented into thousands of pieces, and individuals have a personal menu of media consumption based on their interests, time, and competing priorities in their lives. The formula marketers now have to use is something like:

Time X tailored and personalised media = a chance for a sale.

Much more uncertain.

In this context, spending some time considering the productivity of the investment being made in social media, and you are making them, even if it is just the employee who spends some of your time checking their facebook timeline, would  be useful.

Following is a framework you might like to think about. The reality is that it is little different from a normal Marketing Audit, is it just that we are focussing on social and the content that fuels engagement.

Social media competitive analysis.

  1. What are we doing?
  2. What are direct competitors doing?
  3. What are the successful Social media attention grabbers doing?
  4. What kind of content are our competitors producing and distributing?
  5. How, where and when are they distributing?
  6. How are competitive strategies performing? A. In keeping their customers engaged, and, B. In attracting other customers, including ours
  7. Where do we have opportunities?
  8. Where are we under-performing?
  9. What can we do to restructure our activities within existing capabilities?
  10. What capabilities do we need/should be developed?

Content plan

  1. Determine the behavioural and “tone” of the intended audience
  2. Indentify what type of content should be developed
  3. Source and develop the content
  4. Create a content calendar
  5. Develop a set of performance metrics
  6. Build in the expectation of continuous A/B testing, tweaking testing, tweaking….
  7. Build a list of users, and track their use of and engagement with your content, being prepared to personalise
  8. Leverage the list, but ensure that the communication is always personal, and appropriate to the current situation of the prospect.

Repeat all above, again.

Content marketing has become all the rage, there are so called gurus out there selling new brands of snake-oil, and many are extraordinarily good at parting you with your money. However, the simple and fundamental truth of marketing remains: you must add value to your customers lives. Failure to do that results in just having a big bag of fancy hot air, not much use to anyone, no matter how fancy the plan.

Oh, and one last thing about plans that I bang on relentlessly to my clients: You get only 1 point out of 10 for the plan, the other 9 are reserved for implementation.

For a “How to” of an audit of the technical detail  on your site, this post of Neil Patels is a terrific start.

I would value your feedback on how you undertake a content audit, so let me know.

 

 

Renting your sales.

 

isle endWalking into chain retailers these days you are inevitably confronted by displays of product, usually at a discount.

Most people seem to think that it is the retailer doing the promotion as a means to attract added sales, which is true, but the reality is that the promotion is funded by the suppliers, and it is a competition for the retail space that is generally won by those suppliers  with the deepest pockets, and best information.

Retailers are in two businesses, selling stuff to consumers, and renting retail space to suppliers. Chain retailers business model relies on a formula that accommodates volume, revenue,  and total margin over the space allocated. This can get very complicated, as the number of variables is enormous.

For a supplier to a chain retailer, the challenge is to balance the complex and  competing demands of enterprise profitability and investment  in the future against the need to meet retailer margin  demands  necessary to retain access to the consumer via the distribution controlled by the retailer.

Of real significance is the difference between sales that would have been made irrespective of promotional activity the “base sales rate” and sales made in a period as a result of promotional activity, “incremental sales”.

The need to fund retailer margin via promotional allowances is universal, but the sales that occur as a result of the activity may not be there when there is no activity, and are therefore” rented” sales. The effectiveness of the activity has many measures, but to the supplier two measures only are of any real use.

    1. The real cost of the promotional activity including all discounts on deal volumes and associated co-operative advertising.
    2. The number of consumers who convert over time from being a rented consumer to one who becomes a part of the base sales volume.

If you are not making these calculations, and adjusting the mix of your expenditure programs accordingly, and are prepared to make some very tough choices on the basis of the information gathered, chances are you are going broke being successful, a very common complaint in the Australian FMCG market.

 

 

Customer expectations paradox.

gym

What do I do now?

 

The great paradox in selling is that to sell successfully, we often raise the expectations of those to whom we are selling, but to have satisfied customers, we need to under promise and over-deliver.

Complicating that dilemma of the potential mis-match of promise and delivery is that people hear what they want to hear, filtering out stuff that is inconsistent, unexpected, off their personal radar, or is just uncomfortable, while interpreting and exaggerating the stuff they want to hear. This particularly applies to sales outside the expertise of a customer.

Flicking through the TV channels last night, a bit slower than usual, I saw (another) ad for some sort of home training device that promises to deliver me the body of an Adonis in 10 minutes a day with little effort. A classic case of over promising if ever I saw one, but I guess someone is sucked in every minute, or they would not be aired.

Wonder if the poorer suckers ever get their money back? Guess not, but they do get to keep the flab.

The only antidote is to build a brand that customers trust. To do that you need to deliver on the value proposition consistently, over a considerable period, and act with honestly, humility and transparency. Big call for  the “fat-be-gone” industry.

Managements single greatest failure

time waste

Many years ago, pre-digital,  I gave time to a sales rep who rang up and promised to bring in some samples of brand new products from Europe that had changed the dynamics of the market segments they were in. I presumed that all contained the stuff he sold, but the pitch was persuasive.

The upshot was that he brought in some examples that were at  best mundane,  that I had seen before,  were not innovative in any way, and that I was not interested in hearing about. Then I had to be rude to get rid of him and his lying pitch,  but was further subjected to a stream calls, letters, offers, and promises from him and his superiors that “spoke ” to me as if I was a red hot prospect,  desperate to throw myself at their shitty product.

He wasted my time, misled me, and then continued to irritate by trying to waste more of my time and presumed a relationship that did not exist, and that I would not have, and I have never forgotten the lesson.

Don’t waste peoples time!

The older I get, the more intolerant I seem to get when someone consumes that most valuable of all our resources, time, and I was pretty “bolshie”  25 years ago when this happened.

Whilst today everything moves so much faster than before, our time is if anything more valuable, but the presumption of those who want our attention seems to be that we all have plenty to share and usually waste.

One of the most effective sales people I have ever seen made appointments for 10 minutes each. He promised not to take more than the 10, and to deliver something of value while he was there, and he always did. No coffee, no chat about last nights football, straight to the point in 10 minutes or less, and any more time spent was entirely at the discretion of the appointee, he was always ready to leave, having delivered his pitch.

He valued peoples time and attention, so he got more of it.

Are you asking your people to waste not just their time, but that of those with whom they are paid to interact?

The elusive location of value.

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We all seek value, we set out to buy when we find it, but all too often, we settle on price as the measure, when price is only one component of the mix of factors that makes up “value”. The challenging thing is that even each individuals perception of value can change radically  depending on context.

I tried to catch a taxi last week in the CBD, mid afternoon,  and it was raining very lightly, I was late for an appointment,………

No hope, none at all. AAARRRRHHHH!!!!

There was also one of those sensational exposes on TV last week about the taxi industry in Sydney, how bloody awful it is, poor cars, badly serviced, flagrant profiteering by those who own the licences, and so on, typical populist “news comment”. However, those who own the licences, and those who issue them were declaring righteously how good it really was, and we better all wise up and understand that they had high standards, and the fares were managed to ensure we could all get a cab when we needed one, at a fair price.

What crap. Clearly, the model is broken.

The growth of Uber has been explosive after a shaky  start in San Francisco in 2008, it went from an idea to a valuation of 304 million in 4 years.

They do not own a fleet of cars

They do not employ many people

They deliver a service people are prepared to pay for.

The service has always been there, it is called a Taxi, but taxi regulation obsesses about low fares, and regulation, making sure everyone is the same, Uber obsesses about Value. Same service, getting from point A to point B, Uber just does it differently and arguably more reliably than our regulated taxi service. However, you pay for it.

Their model enables cars to be called up in peak demand, but at peak demand, you also get peak prices, the surge pricing model kicks in. You can get a ride at 3.00 in a rainy CBD, but you pay for it.

Back to my taxi dilemma, when I have time, and it is not raining, there are many transport  options, of which a taxi is one, but when there is no time, and it is raining the value of having a taxi there when I need it is enormous.

Value is extremely context sensitive and variable.

Does your marketing reflect this reality?