The 4 dimensions of project planning.

The 4 dimensions of project planning.

Jul 8, 2016 | Collaboration, Governance, Operations

Lessons in project management are hard won, and stumbles can be very expensive.

My hard won experience supports the contention of that great management thinker Albert Einstein, noted above.  In every project that I have done that delivered sub par outcomes, at least some of the cause has been inadequate planning in one way or another, for one reason or another. Einstein may have been well known for things other than management, but that did not stop him mumbling things that should be on every managers wall as a reminder.

That experience has led me to the view that every project has four dimensions. For success you need to get them all right, 3/4 is simply not good enough, but of critical importance is the overall planning.

  1. Project Objectives. Having a set of objectives, expectations of the outcomes is why projects are developed, planned, funded, and executed. Being explicit about the objectives, and having everyone involved, and who may be affected, is essential.
  2. Project Scope. The scope describes what will and will not be done as a part of the project. Failing to have an explicit scope encourages ‘project creep’ and lessens the accountability. In the ERP implementations I have been involved in, project creep is an ever present cancer on the project, and those that failed to be absolutely explicit about the scope, and enforced it ruthlessly, failed to meet expectations in numerous ways.
  3. Project Budget. How much the project is expected to cost. Pretty basic,  but ignored often, and subject to blow-out as the scope creeps out of control. The only ones who benefit are the consultants who either fix the problems (often they are a part of the problem) and your competitors.
  4. Project Timetable. Every project needs a timetable, with milestones connected to the scope and costs, as well as performance.

Project planning stepsNo project can reasonably be deemed successful unless it meets or exceeds the requirements imposed by all four parameters. Anything less will deliver sub-optimal outcomes.

7 things business leaders can learn from this election campaign

7 things business leaders can learn from this election campaign

Jun 27, 2016 | Governance, Leadership, Personal Rant

Over the weekend I was talking to my 32 year old son about the coming election.

I thought I was  the quintessential cynical old buggar, while being politically engaged, but I had nothing on my formerly optimistic son.

He is not just a cynical young buggar, he is so disengaged that in the long term, it can only be bad for our economic and social life if he is any way representative of his demographic cohort, and I fear he is.

As he said ‘Problem is that the gap between what the pollies say, and what they do is so wide, they have lost any sort of credibility and moral authority’.

Sadly I agree with his analysis, but the core of the problem seems to me that they claim control over things they cannot control, while ignoring, misrepresenting or pork-barrelling the things they can.

It is the same in business.

Those that promise the world do not have any credibility at all, while those that demonstrate the performance and value of what they can control earn our loyalty and respect.

There is a lot those in businesses can control, and should strive to improve.

You can control the way you spend your time. Every job, even those on a manufacturing line has some level of flexibility in the way the time is spent. In management roles of any type, the discretion is significant. You can choose to do what may be apparently urgent, but is unimportant, or those things that may  not be urgent, but are important. It is those who elect the latter route that will prosper in the long run.

You control the way you  behave. Those who say one thing and do another, or worse, demand behaviour of others  they are unwilling to demand of themselves will be judged failed leaders.

You control your attitude. An optimistic person has an effect on those around them, infecting them with your optimism and enthusiasm

You control your leadership style. Dictatorial, aggressively demanding results without consideration of the personal toll that may take, or you can be a coach and mentor, seeking to improve the results by improving those around you.

You control the way you see opportunities. Often opportunities are in the problems being faced, but if all you see are the problems, the opportunities will pass on by.

You can choose where credit/recriminations are levelled. The best leaders I have seen have a common characteristic: they give credit to others, even when the credit is largely due to themselves, and they take absolute responsibility for the performance within their span of control, never seeking to allocate blame elsewhere.

You can choose to have a clear and unambiguous moral compass, or purpose in your life. Having a purpose, and living to that purpose is empowering for individuals and the groups they interact with. Even when others disagree with you the simple presence of a foundation of beliefs that drive your behaviour will get you considerable credit, loyalty and an ability to get things done.

When you think about it, politicians have exactly the same choices we in business have.

Perhaps it is their collective failure to adhere to the basic tenets of leadership that has us so disillusioned with them all.

I predict that come next Sunday, there will be a narrow Coalition win, but the outstanding feature will be the percentage of the first preference votes that go to other than the two major parties, particularly amongst those under 30 whose expectations have been shaped by different factors to those that shaped their parents. This group will also exercise their compulsory obligation to vote by deliberately voting informal. This will not be a ‘donkey’ vote, it will be a vote against what these youngsters see as the irrelevance, hubris and self interest of the political class. It will be fascinating to watch the spin  the major parties put on this disaffection, assuming that both, somebody does the analysis and I am right.

How to calculate a Return on Marketing Investment

How to calculate a Return on Marketing Investment

Jun 20, 2016 | Governance, Management, Marketing, Strategy

 

Marketers being belted around the ears to produce a marketing budget before  June 30 is disturbingly common.

It is a clear sign that the marketing group is acting as a co-ordinator of ad hoc activities, rather than being a disciplined, repeatable, and continuously improving process of revenue generation over the longer term.

Nevertheless, it is happening everywhere as you read this, as June 30, and a new financial year is looming.

A common approach to alleviate the belting is last year + 1.5%.

Not much use if last year was a bummer, especially if you are not sure why.

The other way is  that the ‘boss’ starts at the bottom right hand corner of the P&L and works backwards

Revenue  = X, Market share = Y, Therefore marketing budget = z.

Alternatively, some arbitrary percentage can be applied to projected sales as a marketing budget.

What a load of crap!!

The reality for a marketing budget is that to be productive, marketing needs to be way ahead of the tactical implementation that generates immediate revenue.

Marketing needs to be considering and implementing the strategies to generate revenue tomorrow and the next day, determining where that revenue is going to come from, which products, customers, geographies, and channels, and giving customers reasons to be committing their scarce dollars to whatever it is  that  you are selling.

Constructing a budget without all that strategic information clear and agreed is like taking off on a journey without deciding the destination: any road will get you there, and most of the time and money spent will be wasted.

As an alternative, start to see marketing as an investment.

That discipline of seeing marketing expenditure as an investment requires a longer term view. It also requires an acknowledgement that not everything works as expected, a capacity to learn from experience, and driving the processes is a cultural recognition that the organisation requires a return in its investments in marketing activity.

Calculating a return on marketing investment is not easy, and has rarely been attempted until recently, as the numbers were simply so rubbery (a technical accounting term for crappy and just plain unreliable). However, that is changing rapidly, so the best time to start developing a regime and capability of measuring and optimising the return on marketing investment is now, the beginning of the year, while in ‘budget mode’

It is a six step process driven by the four stages of strategy development:

  1. Have in place a ‘planning rhythm’ strategic cascadethat starts with the long term strategic and cultural challenges and progressively becomes more detailed and tactical.
  2. Recognise the connection between marketing and the long term financial returns from the enterprise.
  3. Collect data on a routine basis that delivers the insights necessary to measure both efficiency and productivity of the investments, and the cause and effect chains that link an activity to an outcome.
  4. Develop the analytical means to generate the insights.
  5. Make the enterprise sufficiently agile to adjust in the light of the insights generated.
  6. Report marketing ROI as the operational people report the ROI on the investments made in equipment, so that the activities have the credibility and weight in the boardroom that the expenditure deserves.

 

Calculating the return on investment is essentially a simple equation.

Cost divided by value derived.

The challenge has always been to attach a value to the various outcomes of marketing expenditure, including the organisational costs and overheads. That task is becoming progressively easier with the digital and data analysis tools now available, and there is no longer any excuse not to at least start the process, and with time and effort improve it so that it is a reliable indicator and tool to determine the value of future investments.

As with any calculation, the result is determined by the input assumptions, parameters and values, so there is considerable opportunity for judgement and change.

Following are a few of the obvious ones;

  • Time frame over which the return will be measured. Budgets are annual, while marketing investments tend to be cumulative over a long period, sometimes decades.
  • The means by which you judge the revenue to be a result of marketing activity. The demarcation between marketing and sales is often an entertaining debate, which I tend to finish by removing all direct sales costs, particularly price discounting activity which is generally brand destructive, and counting everything else,  but allocating a weighting.
  • The components of the cost equation, such as product development costs, customer service, and logistics that are included, and their weighting, which is also a challenging debate. Standard accounting packages are poor at collecting and consolidating this information, it usually takes a tailored process to gather and record the data in an easily reportable format.

Reporting requires metrics that build a picture of the processes to which the activities all contribute.  Every business will be different, but a few of the metrics that have served well for my clients are:

  • Sales of new products across timeframes, 1,2 & 3 years, with some calculation of the losses from cannibalisation, although it is absolutely wrong to use this as an argument to not take an action. Better you cannibalise your sales than a competitor eat them for you.
  • Value and number of prospects at each stage of the sales pipeline
  • Velocity through the sales pipeline
  • Conversion measures at each point in the sales pipeline
  • Share of wallet, for individual customers, and various groups of customers
  • Customer longevity and churn
  • Market share
  • Geographic measures
  • Gross margin and GM ratios
  • Sensitivity to competitive price promotion
  • Customer satisfaction scores
  • Net promoter scores
  • Various social media measures (not likes)

It is also a mistake to measure everything, you will just drown in reports and minutiae. Report on the items that can be demonstrated to move the performance needle, where there is a demonstrable cause and effect chain in place that is connected to strategy as well as revenue.

Finally, make ROMI a core performance measure of the enterprise, everyone in an organisation has some influence on the outcomes that can be connected to marketing success. Expose those connections at every level and make people responsible and accountable.

Need some help with all this, find someone with the experience and wisdom to deliver.

 

 

 

 

Required understanding if you are to succeed

Required understanding if you are to succeed

Jun 6, 2016 | Change, Governance, Strategy

Mary Meeker has again produced a report that should be required reading for all who seek to engage with an audience, with the 2016 update of the Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers Internet trends report.

Disregard the previous statement.

It should not be required reading, it should be required understanding.

The 213 slides are filled with data driven insights, some with scary implications for the laggards, and offering some ideas for what is about to come. Ms. Meeker delivers the 213 slides in 20 minutes, no time to dig the detail, she is delivering a series of trends, and leaving the deck for you to ponder the implications and dig where you wish.

  • At some point, Google will set about increasing the returns on the investments so far in the Android operating system, now it has +80% share of mobile systems. Astonishing numbers as Apple is still making all the money.
  • Digital advertising is exploding, but the share of legacy media is way greater than it should be. Mobile advertising is particularly underweighted. However, the use of ad blockers is also exploding, so the creative challenge is a huge one. While it is not in this report, I have seen others that estimate the amount of digital advertising fraud at over 30%, and I suspect that is on the light side. Add in the fact that many advertisers just translate their TV ads into something digital and you will find billions more being wasted.
  • Hyper-targeting of advertising is a fact of life now, privacy be dammed. Strange thing is that our kids, and grandkids are way less sensitive to this that we digital geriatrics who make many of the decisions.
  • Video is exploding, in all its forms, particularly live streaming, and all on mobile. We always knew we are a visual species, but digital is opening an entirely new door to communication, and we have barely had time as yet to make a rudimentary exploration.
  • There is a whole section on China in the report, and the numbers are astonishing. Uber is extolled as one of the poster boys of the exponential growth enabled by the double sided platforms emerging, so look at slide 181 to see how the growth in China dwarfs the growth in other markets. This is just emblematic of  the digital growth occurring in China and across the Asia Pacific generally, with the exception of Australia, that struggles to deliver upload speeds that would embarrass Nigeria. (In the middle of an election campaign, perhaps this is something that should get an airing? Perhaps not, a bit embarrassing for both sides)
  • The last 20 or so slides concentrate on the implications for business. Read and understand, then take some positive action. The only thing you know for sure is that staying still  is not good enough.

Thanks Mary, and crew!

Is the supermarket model being disrupted, and nobody is noticing?

Is the supermarket model being disrupted, and nobody is noticing?

May 11, 2016 | Branding, Governance, Leadership, retail, Small business

Business models are being disrupted all over the place.

The new centre of business models has become the customer, and the way they perceive and receive value. It was supposed to be this way in the pre-digital days, but really  was not, because the sellers held all the cards. Now however, the power has really reverted to where it should be, to those who drive the value chain by their purchase choices.

AirBnB has become the biggest single retailer of short term lodging on the planet, and they do not own a room, Uber is the biggest taxi service on the planet, and does not own a car, newspapers have been replaced as sources of news. There are many examples, and all are of business models that have arrived in the last few years with a common theme.

They have replaced the linear, sequential business models of the past, where there was always a choke point dependent on physical infrastructure that exerted control, with a model where the physical  infrastructure is simply a logistical resource to be deployed to deliver a service, the real product is information.

Information on availability, product provenance, performance, and many other factors of value to customers, including, you guessed it, price.

It is a two sided model, enabled by technology that is making the logistical control of the infrastructure redundant in the face of consumers having information at their fingertips. The competitive advantage has moved from the physical infrastructure to between the ears of employees and consumers equally.

Employees create and deliver the information that enables consumers to make decisions, which then dictate the physical logistics driven by those decisions.

Meanwhile,  the supermarket  retailer model has not changed  much.

They have huge amounts of capital invested in real estate and physical assets, it has made them  really successful, so the tendency is naturally to do more of the same, just try and do it a bit better.

They have chased, very successfully, productivity of  the assets, a financial measure of success not a sustainable measure of success with customers. As a result they are losing their customers to discounters, specialist retailers, and various direct models that offer an alternative value proposition.

It seems to me that Woolies have walked away from, or simply not understood this evolution of their business model.

Their Everyday rewards loyalty card was gathering momentum, building a picture of their customer base and their individual behaviour, critical information that would over time deliver a capacity to engage on a highly individualised basis. However, it was clearly costing a bit, so they took the short term route, and reduced the cost to them, and therefore value to their customers, gave it a new name and sat back thinking consumers would not notice.

They did, and nobody came.

Woolworths took a short term financial decision that has apparently bitten them in the bum. A bit like the ones they took that killed off Thomas Dux, and led them to misunderstand the market when they bet the back paddock on Masters. Pretty clearly someone in the top floor of the majestic head office out in the hills, can read a spreadsheet, but probably does not know what goes on inside customers heads when they are contemplating a purchase, and making a choice about the manner in which that purchase will be made.

Perhaps new CEO Brad Banducci will claw back some of the customer centric culture that gave Woolworths the wood on Coles for so long, but he better move quickly, as the momentum has shifted against them, and it will be hard to regain.

 

Train dogs, educate people.

Train dogs, educate people.

Apr 26, 2016 | Governance, Leadership

That phrase, ‘you train dogs,  but you educate people’ was used to me years ago by Harvard professor Jim Hagler, making the point that education involves nurturing the ability to think and question while training is simply  enforcing a repeatable routine.

Both have their place, but getting the two mixed up and expecting training to take the place of educating leads to failure.

There are thousands of information products out there, courses of many types that promise to deliver a learning outcome, which is usually passive income so you can sit on a beach and make money while sipping G&T’s

You  have seen them.

They offer training, and often use that term. They are the digital equivalent of buying a book, on a topic, and once you walk out of the bookstore (are there  any left?) the author, publisher and bookstore owner have no further obligation to you, the responsibility is all yours.

By contrast, getting an education takes time, and effort, and there is a responsibility of the institution to teach you, and ensure that you not just know the topic, but can think creatively and critically about both the topic and related material. You cannot walk into the university office and buy a degree (although recent revelations might just make that assertion obsolete)

Education is a two way street, shared by both parties, as distinct from information provision, which is a once only transaction.

Key difference is when you need help, is it there? Most on-line courses are just information, with no help beyond technical assistance to download the stuff, if you are lucky.

There is a big cost to education, not just money, but time and effort, the cost of training is often low.

I would rather spend $2000 on education, really learning a topic,  than $200 on a training course.

This rant was set off by another of those very well crafted pieces of sales copywriting that landed in my email last week promising to give me a passive income of ‘at least 5,000/month’ for life. All I had to do was part with $779 now, or an easy $150/month for 6 months, and it would be mine. Easy, great ROI if it actually worked.

Utter bullshit aimed at deluding the easily deluded.