Apr 23, 2021 | Analytics, Management
Every plan I have ever seen, business plan, strategic plan, house plan, office layout plan, is made up of a set of assumptions about the future.
To varying degrees these assumptions are based on two sorts of ‘facts’. These so called ‘facts’ are not accurate reflections of reality, but expectations with varying degrees of validity. They seem to fall into two categories:
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- ‘Facts’ about the future, often distorted by perspective, misunderstanding, incomplete information, and a host of other variables.
- ‘Facts’ that are really just an extension of the status quo extended into the future.
These ‘facts’ are then fed into a process of some sort and used to develop a plan in the mistaken belief that the future will look little different to the past.
Therefore, the first responsibility of anyone doing a plan is to find a mechanism to test the key assumptions in the plan, and adjust as necessary.
Failure to test the key assumptions, which are the drivers of the performance of the plan when implemented, is the best way I know to really stuff it up.
Having a plan that does not reflect reality ensures either: that every decision that will be made during implementation is suboptimal, leading to poor outcomes, or that the plan is discarded, and normal chaos resumed.
I am never sure which is the worse outcome.
Apr 21, 2021 | Management, Sales
The best word in sales is ‘Free’, it will close more often than any other, by a long stretch. However, being free also implies there is no value to the ‘buyer’ and in any event, it is not really a sale. Only when there is an exchange of some sort can it be termed a ‘sale’
At best a ‘freebie’ is a ‘bait’ of some sort that may lead to a sale.
As a freelancer, I am tempted often to give away a lot of time and advice for free, partly to demonstrate expertise, which may lead to a sale, and partly because I am asked, and am able to do so to help. It is also partly because I find it difficult to just say a flat ‘No’
Recently I had some assistance from a professional to address a problem. It was someone I knew quite well, and have helped a bit in the past, pro bono. As I turned up for the appointment, I was asked if I had some time afterwards so the professional could, as it was stated, ‘pick your brain‘ in a specific area where I have deep expertise. As it happened, I did have the time, so said it was OK.
The upshot is that I gave away an hour delivering expert advice, while paying full tote odds for the appointment and professional advice I had gone there to obtain.
Stupid me.
I should have used the second most powerful word in Sales.
‘No’
It is hard for us to say ‘No’.
We all like to be liked, we like to be asked, and to be seen as an expert, and we do not like to be seen as ungenerous, or even a jerk.
However, is my time and expertise of any less value than the professional I was talking to?
As humans, we also want what we cannot have. Wanting something just out of reach is a driver of behaviour. Saying ‘No’ moves the opportunity to learn something or get something that is just out of reach further away, making it more attractive, and adding to the perceived value of that something.
Watch what happens at contested auctions, as the price goes up, those remaining in the bidding become more desperate to win.
There are many ways to say ‘No’, but the essential element is that it must be clear.
If you apologise, say ‘Sorry’, the door remains open, and you feel a little guilty, when there is no need for you to apologise.
If you say ‘I can’t’, does that mean you cannot now, but might at another time?
If you offer a range of excuses, the ‘No’ remains ambiguous, and everyone is confused.
Remembering that ‘No’ makes you more attractive, you do have options.
- Just be firm and say, ‘No’ I do not do that.
- ‘No’ I do not do that, but here is someone you could ask.
- Redirect back to you. Again, several sub options:
- ‘No. However, email me a few simple questions, and I will try to answer them quickly’
- ‘No, but I do offer calls up to 60 minutes for $XXXX fee.
- ‘That is a complex question, usually only answerable after a detailed examination, for which my project fee is $XXXX.
Use one of these, and the chances of some sort of conversion are real.
Unfortunately, in this case I did not follow my own advice, and so know that the hour I spent outlining the solution to the problem will not be valued and implemented, so we will have both wasted our time.
At least, I got a blog post out of it, so maybe there was some value after all?
Apr 8, 2021 | Leadership, Management, Operations
Have you ever started to read a book, and decided to miss chapter 1?
I guess few ever have.
Miss chapter one, and you miss the foundation of what is to come. It is the first impression, creates the context in which the book is set, irrespective of it being fiction or non-fiction.
Why then do most businesses and their advisors not read chapter 1 of the business improvement handbook?
I know they do not, simply because Cash is such a low priority in these conversations. It is left behind by management clichés and fluffy words about visions and missions.
These things are all important, but in the absence of cash, beyond reach.
How much cash does it take to run your business?
How long is your cash conversion cycle?
What are the sources of the cash you are using?
What are the trends in your free cash flow?
These should be chapter 1 of the business improvement handbook.
When you know the answers, you can move on to the things you can do better to free up more cash, then to the operational, customer and strategic challenges being faced, knowing how much cash you have at your disposal to address these challenges.
Let me know when you need some experienced assistance sorting all this out.
Mar 15, 2021 | Analytics, Management
We are all familiar with the Pareto Principal: the 80/20 rule, first articulated by Italian mathematician Vilfredo Pareto in 1906. Pareto saw this unequal distribution in all sorts of unexpected places, after first noticing that 20% of the pea pods in his garden produce 80% of the peas. (what is it about peas and scientific insight?) At the time, he was studying the distribution of wealth in Italy, and noticed that 80% of the land was owned by 20% of the people. Further study confirmed the ratio of roughly 80/20 held firm across just about everything he looked at.
In the years since, the ratio holds, and has become a point of ‘first principal’ in every field of endeavour from science to sport, nature, and our personal lives.
Why is it so?
The reason is simple when you think about it.
‘Accumulative advantage’ and the 1 percent rule.
We all understand that a dominating force in our lives is that the winner takes all. Nobody remembers who came second! To win, you only must be fractionally better, 1 percent, than the next best, but you get to take all the advantages. You win once, collect the advantages, which facilitates winning again tomorrow, and again taking all the advantages, and moving away just a little more from those that come in second. Over repeated cycles, the accumulated advantage of being just a fraction better means you take the lion’s share of the rewards.
The rich get richer!
As a kid I was a reasonable tennis player. The club at which I played held regular ‘social’ tournaments broken down into age groups. In my age group, there was a bloke who was marginally better than me, based on results. He beat me almost every time, it was always close, always hard to pick which of us was the better player while playing, but the results spoke for themselves. 1 percent (maybe in this case, 2 percent) made the difference, and I was the forgotten runner up almost every time. Since 2000, there has been 77 grand slam tournaments played, 2020 had only one, the US Open for the obvious reason. Of those tournaments, 3 players have dominated the men’s singles: Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. Between them they have won 60 times. A spread of 77.9%, and hardly anyone could name more than 1 of the other winners over those years. Within those numbers, if you just look at the French Open, played 15 times since 2005, when Nadal won for the first time, he has won 13 times.
In a memo dated October 2, 2002, then Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer wrote to staff ”
“About 20 percent of the bugs causes 80 percent of all errors, and–this is stunning to me–1 percent of bugs caused half of all errors.”
Both are just more of the examples of accumulated advantage, the tiny ‘1 percenters’ that add up to a dominating number.
It is this tiny 1 % advantage that drives the 80/20 rule, the accumulated advantage that goes to those who have a tiny advantage, in a winner takes all environment.
In my work with clients, I use the Pareto principal as a core of the investigation into the sources of ‘baggage’ all businesses accumulate that can be eliminated. Then go a step further and encourage them to ‘Pareto the Pareto’. In other words, take Steve Ballmer’s insight, when you have identified the 20% that cause the 80%, go looking for the 1% that cause the 50%.
Mar 2, 2021 | Change, Governance, Management
Covid has forced remote working, and many have responded by introducing a well-proven strategy to maintain the sense of ‘togetherness’ as well as delivering accountability.
The ‘Huddle’
It goes by many names, one of my clients calls it the ‘daily toolbox’.
Nevertheless, it is a challenging idea to implement. Initially there are always those who see it as just another imposition, or waste of everyone’s time, but done well, they are a wonderful tool, and not just for these Covid times.
Following are the 9 practices I have seen that contribute to the great outcomes possible:
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- The daily huddle is by definition, daily, which means that the next 24 hours are the topic of discussion. Anything else should be treated elsewhere in the most appropriate forum.
- Use a set time, and always be on time.
- Make the agenda consistent and focussed on the tasks and accountabilities of those in the huddle only.
- Follow ups, and problems that need further consideration should be taken offline or escalated. The huddle itself should be no more than 15 minutes at the most.
- Do not allow waffle. Preparation for the huddle means that people have points they need to make. Written down and read verbatim is often the best way. However, use full sentences, your summary, while clear to you, may not be to others.
- Everyone in the huddle is given the opportunity to speak, and those who naturally are reticent, are prompted by the chair.
- Ideally, the chair should rotate in some manner that suits the group, which gives all an equal share in the ‘ownership’ of the group and its outcomes.
- It is a place for shout-out praise as well as noting problems and emerging challenges.
- Be attentive. No devices that intrude are allowed.
‘Huddles’ at the next level up, weekly, monthly, work the same way, and are ideally timed to follow the previous huddle, so items are easily and seamlessly escalated.
Huddles are a great way to increase the communication in any enterprise, always the source of most employee angst. Building them into the ‘way we do things around here’ enables rapid, clear communication, one to many. This results in everyone getting the same message at the same time, with a minimum of contextual colouring allowed to creep in.
The outcomes are always around a greater sense of accountability, team and individual, and a culture that involves collaboration. Irrespective of the future of the workplace post the COVID-19 vaccine, when we evolve to some sort of new normal, make your version of the daily huddle a part of it.
When you need an experienced hand to help implement this enormously valuable business improvement strategy, call me.
Header credit: Again, Dilbert and his mate Scott Adams pick the challenge implementing a ‘huddle’.
Feb 15, 2021 | Change, Management
I expect 2021 will be a year where there is a lot of M&A activity as businesses weakened by the impact of the Corona virus are snapped up by rivals with a bit of cash.
The simple equation of M&A is that the price to be paid for an acquisition will be determined by the assessment of the risk and reward by the buyer. The seller can influence the equation, by managing the perceptions of the future risk and rewards, but at the end it is the buyer who determines the price they will pay. It is then up to the seller to accept or walk away.
Risk and reward are determined by the buyer as the assessment of future cash flow from the acquisition, together with any strategic benefit or cost advantages that may accrue.
Often when there is a disparity, there is an arrangement of an earnout period with KPI’s attached to payments.
This is in effect, a risk reduction strategy of the buyer, at the expense of the seller.
It is often the case in SME’s that the enterprise is apparently dependent in some way on a few individuals in the business, and their relationships with customers. The transfer of these relationships is often the key to the future cash flow.
However, it remains that an earn out is the buyers risk mitigation at the expense of the seller.
The seller may choose to take a lower price as an alternative and go sit under a palm tree rather than working in the business he/she previously owned.
Maximising the price for the seller therefore becomes a marketing task, completed prior to any detailed negotiations.
This is no different to tarting up your home before you put it on the market.
Your real estate agent will tell you to fix the fence, paint the interior, do a bit in the garden, make sure all the light fittings work, remove all the clutter to make the place look bigger, and perhaps rent some designer furniture to maximise the price. When selling your business, the advice will be similar.
Do a Due Diligence process for yourself. Anticipate every question that will be asked, and answer it before it is asked, thus removing it as a potential stumbling block.
It is never too early to polish the assets of the business, and work at reducing the liabilities, irrespective of whether or not it is on the market. You never know who might blow in for a look, and everything is for sale, for a price.
Why do SME owners with a valuable asset for sale so often ignore common sense advice?
