Your three most valuable assets are not on your balance sheet.

Your three most valuable assets are not on your balance sheet.

Dec 5, 2018 | Customers, Management, Strategy

 

The first is the value of your brands, the second is your customer list, the third is the ‘culture’ that exists, a fragile qualitative asset which is a vital part of commercial sustainability.

A balance sheet is a snapshot in time of the financial value of your business. It is based on standard accounting practice which fails to recognise the non financial assets that may be present.  Some may include an element of ‘goodwill’ but that is usually just an accounting treatment of the difference paid for a business compared to its tangible asset backing.

The value of a business is the future cash flow that will come from providing goods and services to customers. While that cash flow does come from the tangible assets of the business, in these days of ‘knowledge work’ most of it comes from the three sources noted above, not included on the balance sheet.

A professional services firm has very few tangible assets. A few desks and computers, they probably lease their premises, and their most valuable assets walk out of the office every afternoon.

In the case of a B2C business, your customers are generally different from your consumers, which just serves to increase the relative value of your brand. Consumers make the vital choice of which product to purchase, the intermediaries, wholesalers and retailers are just anticipating what choices they might make, and profiting from the arbitrage.

An acquaintance sold his business some months ago for a tidy sum. The business had been established for a considerable time, was successful, and he had kept up  the level of investment, particularly in his employees, so that it had every prospect of continuing to be successful.

The new owner closed it down.

They took on a few key employees, but locked the gates, broke the operating leases, and sold off the remaining assets.

All they wanted were the customer lists, along with what was in the heads of those few employees who had the direct relationships with the key customers, and the potential scale that was on offer with the elimination of a competitor.  The whole value of the business was tied up in the Intellectual Capital of those in the business, and the manner in which it delivered value to customers, not in the hard assets recorded in the balance sheet. However, in failing to recognise the value of the culture in the business which they destroyed, they ensured that the transaction would be a financial failure over the medium term.

Be sure you understand the full value of those assets not on your balance sheet, and invest in them, as ultimately, they will be the core of the value of the business.

 

Is AI going to take our jobs?

Is AI going to take our jobs?

Nov 21, 2018 | Change, Management

Some of them yes.

Those repetitive jobs where we do the same thing over and over, will be gone.

Let’s be clear about AI. It is artificial, it is not intelligent.

AI is very good at some things  we humans are bad at, but it is no good at what made we humans so successful.  The imagination, and emotion, the capacity to empathise,  and understand complexity we are born with is not artificial, and cannot be replicated by machines, at least not in the foreseeable future.

Machines can do things  faster and more reliably than us, and they do not go on smoko, no holidays, hangovers or emotional attachments to fellow workers.

Machines are fast and reliable, and fast and reliable is a huge benefit.

Machines are also very accurate, tell them what to do, they do it. Again, something we humans are not so good at, we tend to vary things around, sometimes just to relieve the boredom.

Machines do the routine, mind numbing tasks that we put aside, or do poorly. They do not have a mind, so they do not mind being bored.

Al is maths, not magic. All AI is statistics and maths that can be broken down into algorithms so they are repeatable. Machine learning is the next step on the ladder, where the algorithms learn to recognise patterns. This takes trial and error, so that eventually, the machine can isolate common characteristics in a pile of data.

This is becoming more common every day, as we see uses for pattern recognition.

Both Google and Amazon have products you can download and use that deliver astonishing accuracy in pattern recognition. An occasional client has introduced this feature on his remote cameras, so they can now distinguish between a kangaroo and a truck, triggering a response from alarm connected to the camera, so the truck, potentially an intruder sets the alarm, the kangaroo which is more likely just hungry, is ignored.

The next step is usually called ‘Deep learning,’ and we are just at the beginning of this. It is in effect layers of machine learning interacting to identify from a broader and deeper pool of input data the item of interest. We will progress down this track, and at the end, in another 50 years, perhaps machines may be able to ‘sort of’, think.

This stuff all has the potential to make us seem smarter, but we are not, we are just using machines to do what they are good at, while we still do the stuff we are good at, empathy, judgement, relationships.

Over history, technology has created more jobs than it has destroyed. While it will be painful for some, there is no reason to believe the pattern will not continue. Irrespective of the size and type of organisation you belong to, AI is knocking on the door. Open it, realise the productivity benefits, and figure out how to best use it to serve others, and make a buck along the way.

Addendum April 2023. This post was over 4 years old when ChatGPT burst onto the scene, taking the world on a wild ride. In a post in December 2022 I asked essentially the same question, ‘Will HAL’ take our jobs? https://wp.me/p5fjXq-31n and arrived at the same answer. However, the gap of only 4 years has seen the development of the technology referred to above evolve at warp speed, culminating in ChatGPT3.

 

 

Are you running a zombie business

Are you running a zombie business

Nov 7, 2018 | Management, Strategy

 

Zombies are the fictional ‘living dead’. A zombie business model is one that might still be alive, but may as well be dead, unless there is radical surgery undertaken.

Blockbuster was a zombie model, happily making money while Netflix emerged from its cacoon, to kill it in a few short years.

Blockbuster’s then CEO John Antico recognised the problem and instituted a solution that would probably have saved them,  but fell victim to the entrenched view of the Blockbuster model held by his board. His replacement blew some temporary life into the zombie, but missed the opportunity to rebuild, and shortly after, Blockbuster died a rapid and ugly death.

Many bricks and mortar retailers find themselves in a similar position. They know what they sell,  but have no idea to whom they sell it, and whether or not the price at which they sold maximised their margins. Meanwhile, Amazon knows what they sell, to who, at what price, when, and the details of their location, and a host of demographic and behavioural data gleaned from their big data sets. Who is the zombie in that mix?

I note that this morning Lowes announced the closure of 51 North American stores. Can somebody please ask the former Woolies MD what it was like being in bed with a Zombie!

 

 

6 confronting questions for every initiative to ensure success.

6 confronting questions for every initiative to ensure success.

Oct 26, 2018 | Management, Operations

 

Long term survival of every commercial enterprise is dependent on one thing, and one thing only: Consistently being able to make a profit sufficient to ensure that the owners are prepared to continue to have their capital in the business rather than moving it elsewhere.

This simple observation applies to the corner store as much as it does to the current incumbents of the Fortune 500.

No initiative developed for a commercial enterprise is worth the paper it is written on if it does not articulate how, in the long term, the businesses shareholders will  be better off as a result of the plan being successfully implemented.

This reality should inform the way every activity, from strategic planning down to minor improvement projects are developed.

Ask 6 simple, but often confronting  questions:

Will this initiative sell more?

This is not about price, it is simply about volume. If you can sell more at current prices while maintaining margins, you are in with a shot.

Is the sales mix maximised?

This question goes to the mix of products sold. Selling is a resource intensive activity, and managing your product portfolio for the best outcome from the resource investment made will deliver results. Every business I have ever seen has products that deliver a range of margins from differing customers and customer segments. It is often challenging to alter the mix of products, channels, and customers serviced, but only by doing so can the profitability be maximised over the long term.

Can you increase the price?

Warren Buffett, who knows a bit about long term profitability says, “The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you have the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you have a very good business. If you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10% then you have a terrible business’. This is a piece of wisdom that will serve you well.

How can you reduce costs?

Almost every business I see these days is cost sensitive, but too often that sensitivity is disconnected to the productive outcome incurring the cost delivers. Any time there is an across the board cost reduction of a percentage mandated, it is a reason to run for  the hills, as it is a short term Band-Aid that bears no relationship to the returns. A thoughtful cost reduction regime will over time identify and eliminate the sources of waste in the business, activity that does not add to profit. In manufacturing businesses there is almost always excess inventory held, and rework that becomes necessary to fix a problem. Eliminating the causes of  both will reduce costs.

How can you increase productivity?

We all understand the notion of leverage, doing more with less. In a business when you figure out how to do more with the current investment, or alternatively reduce the investment while generating the same level of outcome, you have increased the productivity of  that investment. This is more than, but closely associated with the reduction of costs, but it looks at the outcome of a cost incurred, rather than the dollar amount of the cost itself.

How will that investment increase profit?

There are many tools accountants use to justify and choose between investments, IRR, ROI, being just two. However, they all rely on assumptions of future cash flow in some way. If you expand the thinking a bit, it often pays to invest in less obvious areas. A former client had great difficulty finding a specific set of skilled trades, and spent a fortune advertising and on labor hire firms with poor results. They invested in two areas to solve the problem:  They increased their salary rates way beyond the so called ‘market rate,’ and they invested in the skills their workforce had. The result was a significant reduction in staff turnover, with attendant cost savings and productivity increases. The investment over time was a very good one indeed, spending money to make money is not always obvious, but it does work.

The answers to  these questions are not often obvious. Finding answers you can bet on, which is what you are doing, requires deep consideration, experience, domain knowledge, and experimentation.

Header: The thinker. August Rodin

What is the most universal and useful management tool of all?

What is the most universal and useful management tool of all?

Oct 15, 2018 | Lean, Management, Operations

Easy question. ‘5 whys’.

5 Whys was first articulated by Toyota’s architect of the TPS, Taiichi Ohno in the 50’s, but it was not new.

Anyone who has had children has been on the receiving end of a form of the ‘5 whys’ from about two and a half years old, to 6 or 7, by which time they have learnt  that the question is not always appreciated or answered fully, so they stop asking.

The process is deceptively  simple, keep asking ‘Why’ until you get to the root cause of the problem, well past the symptoms, so it can be fixed, and the problem not recur.

In a previous life managing a manufacturing business, we had a recurring problem with an automatic box erector that seemed intractable despite huge efforts. The whole line stopped every time the erector spat the dummy, causing serious production losses.

While it took months to find the right cause, after chasing a lot of rabbits down holes, we finally nailed it using 5 why.

  1. Why did the erector jam?

One of the arms was out of alignment to the flat box

  1. Why was the arm out of alignment?

One of the flat box ends was slightly crooked

  1. Why was the box end crooked?

The box end was slightly out of specification

  1. Why was the box end out of specification?

The purchasing manager had changed suppliers for a significant saving, and the new suppliers actual operational control allowed variations outside the erectors demanding requirements,  resulting in an occasional  mechanised  ‘dummy-spit’.

This example in fact only took us ‘4 whys,’ but the trick was to ask the right questions  in the first place, in the right sequence. This took us several months and cost a huge amount in lost production, and maintenance resources as we eliminated possible causes of the problem before anyone thought to examine if a 1 mm variation outside the spec of the flat box size was significant.

Once identified that it was, the problem was quickly fixed by moving back to the previous supplier with whom we had encountered  no problems.

Subsequently, we evolved a process that used 5 whys as a matter of course in search of improvements in the factory, and later, admin processes, and found that our problem resolution times dropped dramatically.

The process is pretty simple, just challenging to implement:

  • Institute a ‘5 whys’ meeting in response to a problem.
  • Invite (read insist) everyone involved and/or affected by the problem to attend the meeting.
  • Agree a ‘chairman’ for the problem who will take overall responsibility.
  • Proceed to ask ‘Why’ until you get to the root cause of the issue. It almost never takes more than 5 ‘whys’ hence the name. This step can take time and often takes several meetings as possible answers to the ‘why’ are considered.
  • Assign responsibility to install, test and validate the solution
  • Document and disseminate the solution which has been broken into a written process to ensure compliance, or easier further investigation should a similar problem arise.

The whole objective is to get to the root cause of  the problem, a process that is applicable not just in industry, but in your life, when you think about it.

 

 

 

Diagram courtesy Mindtools.com

How do you solve a critical problem?

How do you solve a critical problem?

Oct 12, 2018 | Change, Management

Define the problem first!

Dealing with problems effectively requires that  you first define the problem. This sounds pretty obvious, so obvious in fact that many do not think about it, they just persist with workarounds that address the symptoms, without getting to the core of the problem to solve it.

Not all problems are the same, so logically, they will not all have the same solution.

Classifying them in some way is a good first step, so here are four suggestions.

The ‘Cock-up’ Box.

Something or someone has acted in a way that is inconsistent with normal. There has been a cock-up. It could be a machine broke down unexpectedly, a customer delivery does not arrive, or a key component of a marketing program is missing, and many others. Point is, it is abnormal, so go looking for the root cause of the abnormality. ‘5 Why’ normally works very well in these circumstances.

The ‘Poor Process’ box.

The outcomes of a process done regularly seems to vary each time it is done, there is no reliable standard. The level of reliability is such that someone has to check or rework what has been done. I had a client whose MD routinely checked the detail of quotes done by his staff, looking for the errors he knew they were making, which he corrected, without taking any further action. Unless the process that enables errors of this type to be made is addressed, the problems will persist. Mapping what happens always helps to identify the ‘holes’. In this case, I ‘attached’ myself to a couple of quotes from the point they were initially received, mapping  the action taken, by whom, when, and what was the trigger, and created a ‘map’ of the process. It was then obvious to all where the causes of the variations occurred, and steps were taken to remove them. The result was a much greater level of confidence in the accuracy of the quotation process, which freed up a significant chunk of the MD’s  time to do more useful things.

The ‘Get Better’ box.

This often looks like the one above, but the motivation is different, it is often the result of an external pressure, resulting in a previously acceptable level of performance no  longer being acceptable. The typical examples are cycle times of all sorts of things being shortened, from order to delivery time, design time, response time, to improving the quality, however that is defined. In Australia, the example on everyone’s mind is the management of power. Costs have gone through the roof, and suddenly shaving a percent off the power bills here and there becomes an item of considerable priority, so effort is going into tracking and addressing all points of power consumption that can be modified to cost less, or be eliminated.

The ‘Out of the Box’ box.

As the name implies, this is where the ideas to address the emerging challenges are addressed. These are  innovations that you can either implement yourself, or responses to the trends observed that require big change. Having an established process to deal with and leverage innovation, significant improvements, unexpected situations, and opportunities that become apparent, is challenging. What it requires is a continuous focus on strategy and the long term vision, mission, purpose, whatever terms you use in your business. These things are way too easy to stick in the ‘too hard basket’ or the ‘will do it tomorrow’ basket, in the knowledge that tomorrow never comes without another short term crisis to address.

When you need assistance defining, then categorising the problems you face before developing solutions, give me a call.