A simple way to value your SME

A simple way to value your SME

Aug 21, 2017 | Governance, Management, Small business

The value of your business is absolutely dependent on its ability to generate free cash flow, which in its simplest terms, is the cash required to keep the business running, after necessary capital expenditures have been considered. It is a measure with many formulas that differ only in the detail, and means of determining the meaning of ‘necessary capital’

The durability of that free cash flow is simply an estimate of the confidence you can have in projecting that free cash flow into the future. The durability is usually expressed as a discounted cash flow, which simply applies a rate of inflation expected over time to the current value of a dollar. However, this is only half the calculation as financial projections are impacted by far more than just inflation. They are impacted by competition, regulation, emerging technology, and many other factors. In 2001, who would have thought the global Blockbuster video rental chain, who had built a multibillion dollar turnover, had 54,000 employees, and thousands of franchised and owned stores worldwide would be dead in a decade.

This thought was sparked by a conversation I was involved with that wondered at the difference in the value of two service businesses, that on the surface look very similar. One of them was a successful but modest sized suburban accounting practise, the second a similarly sized suburban wealth management practice. The wealth business had a market value several times the value of the accounting practice, should either of  the principals choose to sell up and enjoy a retirement.

When quizzed, the customer retention rate of the wealth practice was far greater than the accounting business, as was the share of the clients wallet that they had. There are accounting practises, selling pretty standardised services on every street corner, all with a similar offering solving similar problems for a potential client, whereas Wealth management is a way more specialised business, focussed on bespoke solutions to the wealth retention problems faced by wealthy individuals.

Therefore the durability of  cash flow from the wealth management business is considered by those who might be considering buying such a business to be more reliable into the future than that of an  accounting practise.

How does this apply to your business.

If you want to open a sandwich shop in a strip shopping precinct, there is nothing stopping someone opening a competitor next door, indeed, they often do when the first is seen to be successful. However, a similar sandwich shop in a shopping mall will not have a competitor next door, as the mall will not allow it. You do however pay for the privilege of that increased  certainty with the lease rates and turnover ‘tax’ extracted by the mall ownership.

The more specific and specialised  the problem you solve for customers, the less likely they will be to move elsewhere, and you are able to price your services accordingly, delivering both a higher free cash flow, and greater confidence in the durability of that cash flow. It also follows that clients are harder to find,  so the marketing costs prior to them becoming a client are likely to be higher.

The value of your business is absolutely dependent on the amount of free cash flow, and the expected durability of that cash flow. Little else really matters beyond arguing about the book value of fixed assets and any inventory.

 

Are you pushing rope?

Are you pushing rope?

Jul 10, 2017 | Leadership, Management

Activity for the sake of activity, ‘busywork’ that does not contribute to an objective associated with creating value for that ideal customer group, is as useful as pushing rope.

Ever pushed rope?

No matter how hard you push your end, nothing happens at the other end, all you get is rings of rope somewhere close to your hand.

Useless.

The only way to move rope is to go to the other end, and pull it towards the objective.

In most organisations there are barriers to grabbing the end of the rope:

There is no budget

The boss will not like it (worse, the boss’s wife will not like it)

We have not done it before

I am too busy

It is not my job

There are a thousand reasons people push rope, and there is really only one way to change that.

Empowering every employee to stop doing non-productive activities in favour of doing stuff that counts.

Then we need to celebrate the changes made, or the elastic nature of ‘the way it has always been done’ will kick in, and you start pushing the rope again, as it is usually more comfortable than pulling it.

 

3 great strategies to get good at anything

3 great strategies to get good at anything

May 15, 2017 | Management

Malcolm Gladwell’s ‘10,000 hours’ of practise to become expert has worked its way into the lexicon, for good reason. However, is it always so?

I watched my father practise golf after he took it up in his 30’s, endlessly, while never getting his handicap below 18. He had been a very good tennis player, and all round social athlete, so with the practise should have been a scratch golfer.

Why was he not?

On reflection, two reasons: He  simply did not have whatever natural talent it requires to be a scratch golfer, however many hours he practised, and the second and I think way more important reason, his practise was not real practise as would be required to be a scratch golfer.

He practised alone, without feedback beyond seeing where the ball he just hit went. Even the best golfers in the world have coaches, who give them feedback, look for the tiny places to improve, and polish the technique relentlessly. By contrast, Dad practised alone, because he enjoyed it.

He might have put in the hours, but I suggest the hours were not tough enough.

Thinking back on 40 years of managing, consulting and coaching, there are a number of things that I might have advised dad to do, were he still around.

  • Identify what ‘expert’ really means. Any endeavour has boundaries, inhabited by the few who are just better than anyone else. Roger Federer comes to mind. Learn from what they do, break it down into the tiny items that add up to being a superior performance, and know what that performance looks like.
  • Seek out areas of weakness to fix. Performance is always uneven, some components are better than others. The tendency is to double down on what you do well, which is always my advice on strategy, but improving the poorer bits while polishing the peak bits gives a stronger base, and a more reliable standard of performance. It usually takes an outside view to identify these areas, a coach, which is why Federer has one, as does every athlete at the top of their game. A coach demands maximum effort in practise, and highlights areas for improvement. Dad did not have a coach, just Mum begging him to do stuff around the house instead of hitting a golf ball.
  • Practise to a program. Putting in the hours when you have them spare is different from exercising the discipline necessary to make the choice to practise instead of doing something else, and then to practise with intent. Having intent means there is an objective, clear steps towards the objective, and performance measures to ensure that the practise is in fact improving the performance, rather than embedding those tiny habits that tend to creep in and inhibit performance.

None of this is any different to what happens in the businesses to whom I consult.

Generally they are small to medium sized manufacturing businesses whose bread and butter is in doing a range of things really well, and then being sufficiently confident to chip their way out of the rough when they find themselves in it, indeed being prepared to risk the rough in order to have a shot at that corporate birdie.

The 4 levels of a successful business improvement project 

The 4 levels of a successful business improvement project 

Apr 3, 2017 | Governance, Leadership, Management, Strategy

My clients are mostly small and medium sized manufacturing businesses. They usually come to me when they are in a spot of bother, as word does get around.

Over a period of over 20 years of working with these businesses, a process has evolved. It is repeatable scalable, and can be applied to any business of any size. This is not because it is a complex set of algorithms that account for every contingency, just the opposite. It is a simple way of approaching a performance improvement project, that recognises the beauty of Einstein’s quote that “everything should be made as simple as possible, no simpler’

It is not rocket science, it is common sense, first principals.

My entry point is usually strategy, marketing & sales, or as I prefer to call it, ‘Revenue Generation’. The functional distinction these days between marketing and sales is utterly redundant. It never was relevant to customers, it just made the organisation chart easier to understand.

When someone is in trouble, and that is where I usually come in, the standard call is ’get more sales’. However, 9/10 times I see other things that need fixing, so in order to do that, I go back to the foundations, to the first principals of business.

In the end, Business is pretty simple, make and sell something for more than it costs you, and ensure the value to the purchaser is greater to them than the cost, and all will be well.

An improvement project can be treated as being in four parts, or levels, and each will contain numerous sub projects and elements that need to be addressed.

However, they need to be addressed in some sort of logical order, starting with the most urgent, as well as those that will deliver some quick returns. The quick wins are not just for commercial and financial reasons, it is because any change will inevitably be disturbing and potentially disruptive, so having a few quick wins makes the pain of change go away, or at least be more palatable.

Foundation.

These are the things that no matter what else you do, absolutely need to be done.

A lot of it is ‘underground’ as most foundations are, largely unseen, nevertheless, without a solid foundation, whatever else you build will  not last.

It is also true that the foundations wear out, become depreciated, and without renewal, which is a continuous process, you will still fail.

  • Basic financials. Cash management is essential, as cash is the oxygen of business. No business should be without weekly cash flow forecasting. The Profit and Loss statement measures your trading outcomes. It is less immediate than cash management, and gives a better picture of the items that are consuming and generating cash, so they can be managed appropriately. The P&L should be done monthly, along with the relevant performance measures against expectations in whatever form they have been articulated, usually a budget. The balance sheet is a picture at a moment in time of the performance of the business in creating or consuming wealth for its owners. These three basic financial measures are a part of the statutory accounts of any registered business, but a fourth that is not, is a simple measure of the break-even point in a business. At what point in trading do you go from loss in a period to profit. Knowing your break-even point is a bit like knowing when swimming if your nose and mouth are in the water, or out of it.
  • ‘Why’. Being able to articulate the purpose of your business is a huge competitive and cultural benefit that shapes the evolution it will go through. For those who have not stumbled across the various writings of Simon Sinek, it is time to start.
  • Business model. This is the means by which you turn your product into money. The foundations of a wholesaler will be different to those of a retailer, or on line supplier of products. The way you build the foundations will similarly be different. Different business models do not easily mix in the one business. Barnes and Noble should have invented Amazon, not been put out of business by them. Similarly, Blockbuster was in the prime position to invent Netfliks, not become their victim.
  • Regulatory requirements. These are a do it or be prosecuted choice, which for most is no choice at all, but you would be surprised how many businesses I walk into that are (mostly) unknowingly breaking the law. If you are running a child care centre, better get the regulatory stuff sorted!
  • Operational capability. Setting out to run a business, you need to be able to deliver a product of reliable quality, on time, and in budget, that delivers value to the customer. Pretty simple, but I have seen many business plans that seem to think that a product will come about like manna from heaven, just because it is ordered.

The advent of digital has changed forever the manner in which you approach a number of these elements and I would contend, is continuing to change them, almost weekly. I was tempted to put digital capability as one of the Foundation elements, but digital is a bit like breathing, you do it or you are history.

 

Revenue generation.

Commonly called Marketing & Sales, but as noted the distinction is redundant.

No business survives without revenue, and it is my view that all  the processes aimed at generating that revenue, directly or indirectly, should be seen through the one lens.

Marketing is a huge topic, way too much for a single blog post, but there are some basics that should be clear.

What is the profile of your ideal customer, How do you find and engage them?

What is the value proposition, how will the customer make the choice between your product and the alternatives, How will you go about building a brand, what are your best distribution channel options, which communication channels and platforms do you use,  which customer profiling methodology, lead generation and conversion, NPD & C, customer service, Strategic key Account Management, value proposition, advertising, market research,  and so on and on and on.

I ‘bounce’ between revenue generation and the foundation activities. While you have to have the foundations in place, you also have to be generating revenue to pay for the investment, one without the other is still a ‘fail’. Therefore there is a continuous and parallel improvement in both, it is not sequential, it is a parallel journey.

One of the traps of all the digitisation that has taken place in the revenue generation space is the sudden availability of new shiny toys to play with. Each in its own way promises to deliver at least some part of the silver bullet you are seeking. The temptation to chase the newest shiny tool is overwhelming for many, but also equally daunting for many others. The right mix is somewhere in the middle, as usual.

Identify the tools that solve your problems in the manner that best suits your strategic and financial objectives and limitations,  without losing sight of the foundations of your business, and you will be OK. Being seduced by the tools is as bad as ignoring them.

 

Leverage & Scalability

This is where the fun really starts.

We all understand the concept of leverage, of doing more with less. The tools available in the revenue generation space give you leverage in your current markets. They also provide the opportunity to leverage capabilities outside your immediate markets and customers. This sort of leverage can be applied geographically, to adjacent markets and customers, in new value propositions, new technologies, and to gain a decisive advantage over competitors.

Having built a stable and profitable business by solid achievement in the foundations and revenue generation stages, you will free up the time to enable the leveraging and scaling of your processes, assets,  capabilities, collaborative demand chains, and importantly spread your process improvement successes wider.

 

Sustainability.

Commercial sustainability is the rarely stated, but often considered objective of all this commitment. The best metaphor for this stage is nature. As the environment changes, the organism evolves to accommodate and leverage the changes to its benefit, and this happens without added effort. It is commercial evolution at work.

This is the vision painted by so many of those trying to get into your pockets, of the 4 hour work week, taken remotely while on an island paradise collecting magically recurrent income. It never happens, at least I have never seen it. Even those who claim to be making millions via the web selling all sorts of dreams, are doing more than they tell you. It is true that web based products, a new  commercial option still only a decade old have made a huge impact, and there are a few who have made it big, but they are as rare as those who made it big in manufacturing in the last century were. Nevertheless, having a goal of sustainability in your sights, and working towards it will see your business prosper, and you will be able to enjoy the fruits of that prosperity.

So what now?

You can only do a very small number of things at once.

Therefore where I start is with a ‘StrategyAudit’ where I go looking for the holes then prioritise them into an action plan, and gain some sort of agreement  that the plans will be followed. A realistic assessment of the current situation is an absolutely crucial first point of any improvement project that offers the genuine chance of enhanced performance.

 

How to understand the answer to a question.

How to understand the answer to a question.

Mar 22, 2017 | Governance, Leadership, Management

I ask questions for a living.

No, I  am not a policeman, journalist, or a head-hunter, all of whom need good questioning skills, but in some regards I am a detective.

My job is to see what can be done to improve the performance of businesses, and to do that effectively I need to understand with clarity what is holding  the current performance back. Therefore I need to be able to analyse and understand the current performance through an independent  lens, a perspective  that is different to that of those who are paying me, and which leverages the experience and domain knowledge I bring to the table.

As a consultant, especially one that works in a space usually over-filled with clichés, emotion, personal prejudices and views presented as facts, the real skill is in asking the right questions, and knowing when it has been answered satisfactorily, then following up with the next one that further opens the oyster.

Asking the right question is a matter of experience, domain and technical knowledge. Knowing when it has been answered is all about being a good listener, and entirely different set of skills.

As I listen, I try and break down more than what is being said, and why it is being said, it is just as important to see what is not being said, and to be able to follow up with the question that gets to the area of discomfort, that is best left unsaid, in their minds.

So here are the things that in one way or another I do when listening, apart from observing the old adage that evolution gave us two ears and one mouth for a reason.

What is being left out. Where are the gaps, the inconsistencies, and the evasions, as they will tell you a lot about the person. An HR manager I once worked with used to spend what I initially thought was an inordinate amount of time on the sequence and timing of stated jobs in an applicants resume.   Then I realised he was just looking for the gaps, and he almost always found a few, which usually told us more about the person than they had included.

Where are the contradictions? As with gaps, contradictions can be well hidden, and are often unconscious. They are not just contradictions about timing and  ‘things’ that matter, it is more about contradictions about their personality. I had a product manager working for me a long time ago who  told anyone who was listening that his personal credo was honesty and transparency, but then took staplers and pens home from the office supplies cupboard. A little  thing perhaps, but a contradiction that told me something about him that proved useful.

Why are they telling me this, and not that? People can go on and on about ‘stuff,’ the words fill a hole in the conversation, stuff that really does not matter. Wondering why they are telling you this ‘stuff’ and not something useful or that adds to the ‘picture’ you are developing can be enlightening.  This is particularly so when you know of something that perhaps they are unaware you know, but is relevant to the conversation. I recall the lawyers adage of never asking a question of someone giving evidence without knowing the answer in advance.

What about this makes it relevant to the question? People like to talk, usually because they like to be listened to, and so can go on and on about things of limited or no relevance to the question, simply because they have the floor. Generally we are polite, so do not interrupt the flow, but it can be useful sometimes, particularly pointing out the irrelevance of the tsunami of words that just emerged.

What are the facts? There is a huge difference between facts, things that are demonstrably true, and opinion, suppositions, and the outcomes of ‘managed’ data. The last of these is often the most tricky to tell from the real story, as they purport to be facts, as evidenced by the data. It is just the data or the interpretation of the data that is dodgy.

Did they answer the question directly.  Listen to any politician talking on any night, and you will most likely hear them answer a question in a manner that bears little or no resemblance to the information being sought. Unfortunately it seems to be the standard state of public office, but in a commercial environment, I dismiss it with the contempt it deserves. To be fair, politics gets played pretty hard in many commercial environments, and so is sadly, little different.

Tone of voice. Body language and tone of voice also delivers a message. Just think of the myriad of meanings the word ‘bastard’ has in Australian vernacular, all are conveyed by the same word, with entirely different meanings dictated by tone of voice and body language.

At the end of an answer to a question, I often repeat what I have heard and understood from the answer to offer the opportunity to correct and modify my understanding as necessary. It is also a good tactic when  seeking to assess the truth of an answer.

 

 

Budgeting: The crappiest time of the year

Budgeting: The crappiest time of the year

Mar 20, 2017 | Governance, Management, Small business

It is that time of year again, budget time.

In most businesses around Australia, at least those that will be around in a year or two, people are wondering where they will find the time to do the budget preparation for the coming fiscal.

To make it easier, following are some simple guidelines to apply to your thinking.

Where are you  now.

Before you set out on the planning of any journey, it is useful to know the starting point. This tends to avoid a lot of wasted effort and cost, and unnecessary frustration. Having a very clear picture of your current position is vital, but if you have left the development of that picture to the planning sessions pre budget, it is probably too late. Developing a deep understanding of your current situation, and most importantly the drivers of that outcome, needs to be an incremental and inclusive process that is happening in real time, all the time.

Where is it you want to go.

Again, obvious, but often overlooked. Good businesses have a strategic framework in place that delivers clarity and priority to the long term outcomes being sought, so the annual budget is just another step along the path. However, in the absence of a strategic framework that makes sense, a disturbingly frequent situation, set yourself some goals to be achieved, and the annual budget is the operational plan to get there.

How will you know when you get there.

Measurement for measurement’s sake is dumb, but having the few key measures of performance that really tell the story of your progress towards the end point is essential. Knowing what ‘success’ means is a core part of the planning process, but again, when that is left to the planning sessions, it is too late.

1/10 is not enough.

Another of the mumblings of my old Dad who used to say, ‘Son, you get 1/10 for  the talking, the other 9 are for the doing’. In a business context, the planning is essential, but of no value unless it is implemented. Just like a holiday, you can have some fun planning it, but the real fun is when you are actually on the holiday.

Profit is a two way street.

To make a bob, you have to sell something to people who really want at a price that is more than it costs you to produce and deliver it. Pretty sensible, and pretty simple, but understanding your costs and really understanding the value your product delivers to the specific target markets is a touch more complicated.

Everyone is in marketing.

The days of marketing being relegated to the back office are gone. Customers now have all the power, and they are exercising it in all sorts of ways not contemplated just a decade ago. Highly sensitive, fragmented, and focussed communication channels are being used by everyone, and amplification happens at the stroke of a social media pen. Everyone who comes into contact with your products can have an influence, and everyone in your business  is an agent of marketing. For heavens sake do  not leave it to the kids who have marketing in their title, thinking they have it under control, because nothing could be further from the truth. The most valuable asset you have is the position your product holds in the minds of your customers and potential customers, commonly called your ‘brand’. It is not normally listed on the balance sheet, as the accountants cannot agree how it is to be valued until a business is sold, when it is called ‘goodwill’ but it is the leverage that enables you to be able to stay in business.

Count outcomes before dollars.

Financial results are just that, results. Dollars are just easy ways to count the outcomes of more complicated stuff. Spending time understanding the drivers of the outcomes being counted is a far better way to invest your planning time that just manipulating the variables in spreadsheets. What is it that persuades someone to buy from you and not the opposition, how can you reduce the hidden transaction costs in your business, how can you increase your stock turn and reduce your working capital, and thousands of other questions that need your time and attention before the budget profit and loss is locked away.

The smartest people are not in the room.

No matter how big you are, and how much money you spend on expertise, the vast majority of the smartest people, and those who could influence your outcomes are working somewhere else, some of them for your competitors. This simply means that you have to find ways to be sensitive to the competitive, strategic and regulatory environment in which you are operating, and feed that intelligence back into the way the business is run. From going to local networking events, to travelling to leading markets and suppliers, to hiring expensive consulting knowledge, to ensuring the operators in your business have a voice at the table, all serve to add to the store of ‘education’ the business has to call on at budget time.

When you have done all that, it becomes time to go and punch the spreadsheets, not before. One last point, seems to be a common last point in my various musings, look after the cash. It is the lifeblood of the business, if you do nothing else, look after it as you would your first born.