Apr 14, 2025 | Change, Communication, Governance, Leadership, Marketing, Strategy
When you look you see Hofstadter’s law around you everywhere, every day.
We all understand Murphy’s law, which accurately states that is something can go wrong it will, probably at the worst time. Murphy has a sibling, articulated by Douglas Hofstadter which states: ‘A task always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s law’.
Planning is a part of our lives. Some things are easy to plan, the consistent characteristic of these is that there are very few variables over which you do not have control. For example planning a trip to the supermarket, you can check what you need you control the time, the choice of supermarket, where you park, how you work the store, the choices you make between brands. Very few uncontrolled variables.
By contrast strategy is an exercise not just in predicting the future, but then making choices how best to deploy your resources in a way that enables you to shape the future to your benefit by exerting some influence over the range of variables over which you have no control.
Entirely different challenge, as there is never an explicit ‘right’ answer.
When we talk about strategic planning we are effectively mixing two incompatible factors. The uncertainty of the future and the forces over which we have no control, and the certainty of the resources we have to deploy, with uncertain outcomes.
Currently in this country we have a huge black hole called defence planning into which billions of taxpayers dollars are being poured, in the mistaken view that we are able to predict the future and therefore plan as if we could control the variables.
The better way is to have a robust strategy which enables flexibility in the way assets are deployed short term.
Projects tend to expand to fill a time available, while at the same time we habitually underestimate the time that is required to complete any given task, no matter how rigorous we are in the planning.
Jan 15, 2025 | Communication, Marketing, Small business, Strategy
A few days ago I turned 73. Well past any reasonable retirement age, but I cannot see myself as retired. While there is not the same pressure of past years, the thought of playing golf and going to lunch a lot does little for me.
In late November last year, WordPress cut off the basic numbers that had been supplied about readership of this blog. I could no longer see which posts had been opened, how many times, and the country and source of the opener. It had been a free part of the site for the whole 15 years of the blog, and I did look at it, and once a year, do a superficial analysis of it in a post, referring to the most popular posts, but that is all I did.
It was a curiosity for me to see which post performed best, but the numbers are tiny, ridiculous in any commercial context. However, I did nothing with that information.
In contrast to my advice to all my clients, I did not bother to look at the also free Google Analytics. I stopped that some time ago when I realised I was spending time looking, and doing nothing with the conclusions.
Equally, I have made no effort to ‘monetise’ the blog, rarely touting for business, no ads, no affiliate links, none of the obvious things I knew I could do to generate some cash.
When I started the objective was to use it as a lead engine for my one man strategy consulting business, but that did not last. Rapidly I realised it was way more personal, self-indulgent, even selfish than that. I did not really care who read it, although gratified to know a few did, The purpose had become to order my own thinking, be creative in the way I thought about things, and to sate my curiosity.
Back to the numbers. My initial annoyance with WordPress, dissolved, Who cares, I don’t. The metrics did not matter to me, beyond some level of vanity, as I did not use them. Their absence for the past 6 weeks has not altered my ‘scribbling habit’ at all, a habit that like any deeply held habit is very hard to break, and why bother, it adds value to my life, and if it adds value to anyone else, that is a bonus.
We live in a world of numbers.
If it cannot be counted, it does not matter sayeth the consultant, I have said it many times, while knowing the truth of Einsteins utterance that ‘Not everything that matters can be counted, while not everything that can be counted matters’.
Rarely do I see myself as a writer. Occasionally, when someone compliments me on post, I feel that maybe I am, but I see myself as a scribbler, one who feels compelled to write stuff down in order to make sense of it, to coalesce the conflicting information and emotion banging around in my brain. The act of writing is what is important, not what comes after. Therefore why should I be annoyed that WordPress has demanded I pay for some numbers that may appeal to vanity, but I do not use.
Stick your numbers up your arse WordPress. I will scribble on regardless, and reconsider GA.
Have a great 2025.
Dec 13, 2024 | Communication, Marketing, Social Media
It’s never been easier to reach potential customers, yet the reality is that most outreach efforts are being ignored. Digital tools have flooded inboxes with a tsunami of generic, unsolicited messages. Once, nearly everything got opened — now, email open rates are as low as junk mail rates.
We are all increasingly wary of scams, which feed the above
Cold calling by phone is similarly suffering.
I would get two or three cold calls a day, none of which get a response beyond a blocking of the caller number.
Text messaging is going the same way, rapidly.
The vital question for marketers is obviously how do you break through this barrier of denial.
Here are four suggestions.
Quality personalised content. This takes time, money, but most particularly intimate understanding of the behavior and competitive context of your defined best customer prospects.
Relevance and timing. Focus on the most relevant communication channel and be very sensitive to the business cycles that impact your best customer prospects. Failure to do both will mean your message will be just another piece of auto-generated blurb.
Authenticity: This is a much used and overused term. Nevertheless, standing out by being real, transparent, and trustworthy in a sea of automated noise is essential.
Value driven engagement. Another of those overused cliches is ‘engagement’. However, it is a cliché for a reason. Providing immediate, clear value in every interaction through the conversion process, building trust at every stage is essential. Your prospect must see the value that makes it worthwhile to move a further stage through the conversion process.
Refining these strategies by continuously testing and improving them will give you the edge over mass produced blurb in the crowded to overflowing inbox facing your prospects every morning.
While this is easy to say, and write in a blog post, it is very hard to do. You need an expert, to direct the process.
Dec 9, 2024 | Communication, Management
From time-to-time leaders and managers must deliver bad news.
Delivering bad news is one of the most stress inducing actions any manager and leader must undertake from time to time.
My technique over the years has been what I call ‘delivering a Sh*t sandwich’.
The bad news sandwiched between two pieces of better news.
For example:
‘Sales are going well and are above budget’.
‘Sales in your area are poor, your colleagues are carrying your short-comings and are becoming very tired of that’.
‘We are sending you to the ‘Harvard improve your sales skills course’ next month hoping it will help you improve.’
This generally works quite well.
The alternative as demonstrated by the following story I found from an anonymous source, is to deliver some outrageous and imaginary really bad news, which then makes your bad news seem like a huge relief in comparison.
“Dear Mom and Dad
I’ve dropped out of school. Bob and I have moved to Alaska. His penal officer has found him a job, and we live above the gas station where he pumps gas. The doctor says my pregnancy is coming along as well as can be expected.
Love,
Jane
P.S. There’s no Bob, I’m not pregnant, and I didn’t drop out of school. But I got a D in chemistry. I just wanted you to read this with the right perspective.”
Note: this last technique also works in reverse.
Rolls Royce no longer display their cars at auto shows. In that environment, they are hugely expensive vehicles, with many very good, and much cheaper alternatives. Instead, they now display at air and boat shows, where by comparison, a Roller is pocket change.
Nov 20, 2024 | Communication, Management, Strategy
When thinking about selling your business ensure you spend time and effort identifying the intangible components that could contribute up to 90% of the value of the sale
Almost 6 years ago I wrote a post that identified intangible value at 87% of the Standard and Poor’s index. An update to that index done by Ocean Tomo now puts the number at 90%. While this is a small increase only, it is off an extraordinarily high base, and the index is based on 2020 numbers. Given the run of technology stocks over the last couple of years, I hazard a guess that the number is now well over 90%. It is the last 10% that is, as everyone knows, the hardest to capture.
This is a considerably greater percentage than the other major stock market indices. For example the European S&P at 75%, Shanghai Shenzhen index is at 44%, and the Nikkei sits at 32%.
This wide disparity comes from the makeup of the indices.
The US S&P top ten contains nine technology businesses the outlier being Berkshire Hathaway. In order, on Nov 16, 2024, the top ten and their share of the index is:
NVIDIA 7.2%. Apple 6.8%, Microsoft 6.2% Amazon 3.8%, Meta 2.5%, Alphabet 2.1%, Tesla 1.8%, Broadcom 1.7%, Berkshire Hathaway 1.7%.
Even amongst these behemoths, there is a strong skew to the top three. This top ten constitute 35.4% of the total value of the 500 companies in the S&P index. The Pareto Principle at work, again.
The trend is also clear amongst the other major indices. From much lower bases, they are all heading towards the increasing valuation of intangibles in the total value of their stock.
Ignoring this trend and failing to respond is leaving money on the table.
Over the last few years, I have consulted on several projects where small businesses have been sold. In each case, the sale has been made at a considerable premium to the standard industry multiples that would usually be applied. The driver of the premium has been the effort put into identifying and articulating the value of intangibles to the purchaser. I’ve called it finding the ‘Rembrandts in the roof’, a phrase I picked up somewhere after reading of a dusty Rembrandt was discovered and authenticated in the roof of an old house in Amsterdam 30 years ago.
Are you actively looking to identify and quantify your hidden Rembrandts?
Oct 18, 2024 | Communication, Customers, Marketing
The sales funnel, often depicted in materials promising a path to riches, has profound flaws.
It implies two misleading concepts:
Gravity: The notion that business arrives at your door via discrete steps in a gravity-driven funnel is nonsensical.
No customer focus: Until the bottom of the funnel, where deals are signed, the emphasis is on marketing tactics rather than the customer.
Success demands that a customer is willing to pay for a need to be filled, an itch scratched, or an aspiration fulfilled that’s worth more than the price paid. Value must be created for the customer.
Even for everyday consumer goods, not everyone is in the market all the time. For most products, consumers are only occasionally in the market. In B2B sales, buyers may only appear once a decade, and they’re often not the ones who ultimately make the decision to buy and authorise payment.
These factors lead to the conclusion that the standard templated sales funnel is fundamentally flawed.
My alternative, displayed in the header, is more realistic. It shows progression through a sales process powered by the quality of attraction at each point. It starts with the customer being in the market only occasionally. At those times, you must be included on their list of possible solutions, usually weeded down to a shortlist for further investigation.
At each stage, customers face friction, go/no-go decision points, as they move towards a transaction. Your marketing collateral and overall impression contribute to overcoming this friction. For example, a potential car buyer will suddenly notice many shortlisted brands on the roads simply because they’re now aware of them.
This process is called the “frequency illusion” or its formal name: the “Baader-Meinhof phenomenon” (A scary name for those over 65.) It involves two related psychological concepts:
- Selective Attention: Once aware of something, your brain automatically looks for it, making it more likely to be noticed.
- Confirmation Bias: Encountering the thing you’re now aware of, your brain notices it, making it seem more prevalent.
Templated sales funnels tend to oversimplify the complexity of a customer’s journey towards a purchase. They rarely accommodate the differing behaviours of potential customers, lack recognition of the reasons one prospect drops out, and others circulate between stages as they reflect on the purchase. They completely ignore the impact of competitive activity and offers that may emerge, and tend to emphasise quantity over quality of prospects gathered.
By starting at the exact opposite end, where the potential customer lives, you should be much better able to craft marketing collateral and action points that reflect the real position in a purchase journey of a prospective customer.
