When template business plans are useless

When template business plans are useless

Jul 4, 2016 | Change, Innovation, Marketing, Small business

In Australia, only around 5% of new businesses survive past the 5 year mark, and make money in excess of the cost of capital.

Scary, because most of them had a business plan, certainly if they ever borrowed any money from a bank, they had one that probably doubled as a door stopper.

50 pages of assumptions, rosy projections and financial outcomes delivered via by a suite of complex excel files to the wazoo. It is essential to recognise that the purpose of a business plan of the lender is to ensure that they get their money back with interest commensurate with the risk, and to weed out the dreamers. That is why banks insist on Directors personal guarantees, mortgages over personal assets, simply to ensure that you do not risk their money.

So much for business plans.

Seriously, why would you waste the time and energy?

Most start with what they think is a great product, without realising that a product is just the starting point.

You also need at least a hypothesis about who the customers are, how you will find them, what sort of prices they may pay, how do you deliver the product, what the competitive reaction might be, and on, and on, and on.

Finding a way to turn all this stuff into a business model that makes sense is challenging, but it is what turns a product idea into a business.

A traditional, templated business plan makes sense when there are a lot of knowns, there is an existing market, ruling prices, you know who and where the customers are, and how they might be reached, and there is not much going on. Then plan to deploy resources for productivity and efficiency, but this is rarely the situation with start-ups with an innovation to bring to the market.

Being an entrepreneur setting about marketing a product with few direct competitors is experimental, requiring iteration, practice, persistence, and preferably mentoring from someone who has been there, seen the traps and is able to navigate around at least some of them.

Planning for the unknown is a touch different from planning for the known.

 

 

Is the net killing marketing creativity?

Is the net killing marketing creativity?

Jul 1, 2016 | Branding, Marketing, Strategy

There is just so much stuff around on the net, everything and anything you ever wanted to know, or could think of to ask, is there somewhere.

The availability is removing the necessity to think, to capture the essence of a problem, and then develop creative  solutions and the means to communicate.

Too often the list driven, by the digital book solution, is the only strategy considered.

This blog is no different, when I do a list post with an attractive hook in the headline, views spike. It is a seductive outcome to write a post and double the average number of views.

Marketing has always been about people, with all the vagaries that apply when  you deal with people and their idiosyncrasies.

The people who did marketing well were those able to connect the dots in some way that added value to others. It is essentially a creative skill. Not in the sense of being able to create a drawing, but much broader than that, being able to see things that others cannot.

Then along came the web, and the ‘quick fix’ world we live in, a world of instant gratification, where lists rate very highly, because they meet the need.

But what about the thought process, the creativity??

What about strategy that connects people with unique solutions to their problems?

What about the stories that make things memorable and repeatable?

As I get older, it becomes increasingly obvious that the foundations of marketing, the delivery of value to someone who is prepared to pay for it more than it costs for you to deliver it, are unchanged.

I suspect they are unchanged since Babylon was being built.

How do we come back at this?

How do we ensure that marketing has the depth of thought necessary to truly make a difference?

These days I joke that to get a marketing degree you just need to have a pulse. This is proving to be unfortunately true the more I see the quality of those degree qualified automatons around now, inhabiting businesses and being supposedly in charge of a businesses greatest asset, its brand.

Why was Mad Men was a great TV series?

Not just because it was entertaining, and told stories, but because it was able, for some of us, to tweak a nerve so deep in our psyches that almost hurts. Don Drapers pitch to Kodak, the throwing out of a brief that spoke about the technology, and replacing it with one that spoke to peoples hearts is a classic.

Would that have been possible if Don was following a list?? Beware the siren song of marketing by lists, they can lead you onto the rocks.

How do you reduce customer churn?

How do you reduce customer churn?

Jun 29, 2016 | Customers, Marketing

Pretty simple answer really; you increase customer retention.

It costs way more to find a new costumer than it does to keep a current one, we all know that, but somehow do little about it. Almost every business I interact with fails to get an optimum balance between servicing existing customers and prospecting for new ones.

So, how do you do it.

Stand for something. I am a great advocate of Simon Sinek’s “Why How What‘ analysis. People buy products, not algorithms, and they buy at least partly with their hearts. Even aggressive  B2B buyers, and  multinationals who put in global sourcing by tender as a means to squeeze price, still buy with their hearts because there are people involved. They are more likely to buy from someone they see as standing for something they can relate to, even believe in, than someone who stands for nothing more than their own success.

Be human. Everyone likes to be treated as important, to know that someone cares. It is more than great customer service, it is genuinely caring about your customer. What a poor cliché it has become when much so called ‘customer service’ has been outsourced to low cost countries, where the so called service people have inadequate product knowledge, and no power to actually solve the problem, assuming they understand it in the first place. I received a parcel of stuff bought on line recently. The packaging was superb, and inside there was a note from the person who assembled the order, with her email address at the supplying company. It was such a unusual thing that I tested the email, saying thanks, and got a warm reply from the person. That is customer service!

Be a tribe. Seth Godin’s articulation of this phenomena is superb, people want to be a part of a group of people who are like them. Do you own a Rolls Royce because you want to pay 100 times more than you needed to get adequate and reliable transport from A to B? No. The ownership of a ‘Roller’ says something about you, and those you know and interact with, and attracts like minded people who want to be like you.

KISS. (Keep It Simple Stupid) Making it simple for customers to stay and interact with you is the key to keeping them. Why do Telcos have so much churn? Because they fail abysmally at customer service, and are so complicated and opaque in what they do that you feel encouraged to look elsewhere. It is only when you move that they come up with the better price, or service package, and make the moving of your account as hard as possible, hoping you will stay because it is easier. However, who wants to keep a customer who would rather be elsewhere? They will be restless and bad mouth you to all the time, rather than being an advocate for your product.

A management that encourages, particularly by means of financial incentive, investment in prospecting for new business, when their service to existing customers sucks is on the road to pain.

My preferred measure of churn and retention beyond the simple numbers is Share of Wallet. I recommend you use it.

5 things to avoid to do better consumer research

5 things to avoid to do better consumer research

Jun 24, 2016 | Customers, Marketing, Strategy

I sat through a qualitative research (focus) group a few weeks ago, recruited over the phone against a specific demographic list.

On the odd occasion I receive these calls, my stated occupation is never associated in any way with marketing, as that always disqualifies you, the excuse being you might learn something, which in my experience is pretty unusual.

Anyway, are we not consumers?

The moderator was a nice woman, probably had a psychology degree or something similarly disassociated from the tough task of creating value for money, and proceeded to make every research mistake in the book.

Taking ideas as gospel. Instead of digging around to understand why we said the things being tested would work, she just took the blanket statements as fact. The reality is that nobody knows for sure if something will work or not, so gathering opinions without the supporting attitudes and reasons why is dumb.

 Asking questions we could not answer. This often happens, I have seen it and fired researchers for doing it. Why waste time asking a question, then debating the silly answers when there is no way the group could know  the answer, as it requires some specific knowledge which was not in the filtering questionnaire.

Is it better? Collecting quasi quantitative data with questions like this can lead to gross misjudgements. Just ask Coke if they had the research assuring them that ‘New Coke” was better than ‘old Coke’.

Crystal balling. Asking a group to rub their crystal balls and tell you the future is dumb, dumb unless corralled by a statement such as “if A and B were to happen, what do you think would happen next?”

Defining behaviour by Demographics.  This is a general mistake in recruiting groups. Defining your target markers, which is what this is, by demographics alone went out with the turn of the century when we recognised and were able to track the impacts of the drivers of behaviour beyond simple demographics. Just because you might live in Blacktown and do not have a degree does not mean you cannot own a BMW, purchase expensive wine and go on holidays. Our cultural and social life is far more fragmented and eclectic than in past decades that demographics are now only a small part of the picture of who we are, what we want, and how we behave.

When you spend the money on consumer research, it pays to really consider the problems to be solved and how the answers might be used. If the answer to those is: ‘what problem’ and ‘To convince the boss’   or ‘because I do not what else to do’ it is better to save the research money and do something useful with it.

Do we still need books?

Jun 22, 2016 | Marketing, Personal Rant, Strategy

In a world of abundance, we are desperately in need of depth.

Skating across the surface of the ice is fine for a while, but at some point you need to be able to recognise the weak spots, and figure out how to avoid them before you drop through and drown, just after you freeze.

A book does that for me in a way that an e-book does not, neither does a blog post, or a tweet, they are not physical, they have no intellectual or physical weight somehow. A ‘real’ book still does it.

The other thing is that when you find a book that ‘speaks’ to you, it is easy to walk into someone’s home or office, and plonk it on the desk, and say, ‘read this, it will change your life’ or even be just interesting.

A mate of mine who makes his living researching and writing complicated tenders for large projects, also writes a blog on words, their use and misuse, origins, and various meanings. One day he will assemble it all into a book, as he has done with an collection of illustrated verse he wrote for his kids, personal stuff that he has shared with them, now in a tattered book they have all loved.

It is hard to love an e-book in the same way.

I love books, perhaps scarcity is just making me realise how much.

 

How to calculate a Return on Marketing Investment

How to calculate a Return on Marketing Investment

Jun 20, 2016 | Governance, Management, Marketing, Strategy

 

Marketers being belted around the ears to produce a marketing budget before  June 30 is disturbingly common.

It is a clear sign that the marketing group is acting as a co-ordinator of ad hoc activities, rather than being a disciplined, repeatable, and continuously improving process of revenue generation over the longer term.

Nevertheless, it is happening everywhere as you read this, as June 30, and a new financial year is looming.

A common approach to alleviate the belting is last year + 1.5%.

Not much use if last year was a bummer, especially if you are not sure why.

The other way is  that the ‘boss’ starts at the bottom right hand corner of the P&L and works backwards

Revenue  = X, Market share = Y, Therefore marketing budget = z.

Alternatively, some arbitrary percentage can be applied to projected sales as a marketing budget.

What a load of crap!!

The reality for a marketing budget is that to be productive, marketing needs to be way ahead of the tactical implementation that generates immediate revenue.

Marketing needs to be considering and implementing the strategies to generate revenue tomorrow and the next day, determining where that revenue is going to come from, which products, customers, geographies, and channels, and giving customers reasons to be committing their scarce dollars to whatever it is  that  you are selling.

Constructing a budget without all that strategic information clear and agreed is like taking off on a journey without deciding the destination: any road will get you there, and most of the time and money spent will be wasted.

As an alternative, start to see marketing as an investment.

That discipline of seeing marketing expenditure as an investment requires a longer term view. It also requires an acknowledgement that not everything works as expected, a capacity to learn from experience, and driving the processes is a cultural recognition that the organisation requires a return in its investments in marketing activity.

Calculating a return on marketing investment is not easy, and has rarely been attempted until recently, as the numbers were simply so rubbery (a technical accounting term for crappy and just plain unreliable). However, that is changing rapidly, so the best time to start developing a regime and capability of measuring and optimising the return on marketing investment is now, the beginning of the year, while in ‘budget mode’

It is a six step process driven by the four stages of strategy development:

  1. Have in place a ‘planning rhythm’ strategic cascadethat starts with the long term strategic and cultural challenges and progressively becomes more detailed and tactical.
  2. Recognise the connection between marketing and the long term financial returns from the enterprise.
  3. Collect data on a routine basis that delivers the insights necessary to measure both efficiency and productivity of the investments, and the cause and effect chains that link an activity to an outcome.
  4. Develop the analytical means to generate the insights.
  5. Make the enterprise sufficiently agile to adjust in the light of the insights generated.
  6. Report marketing ROI as the operational people report the ROI on the investments made in equipment, so that the activities have the credibility and weight in the boardroom that the expenditure deserves.

 

Calculating the return on investment is essentially a simple equation.

Cost divided by value derived.

The challenge has always been to attach a value to the various outcomes of marketing expenditure, including the organisational costs and overheads. That task is becoming progressively easier with the digital and data analysis tools now available, and there is no longer any excuse not to at least start the process, and with time and effort improve it so that it is a reliable indicator and tool to determine the value of future investments.

As with any calculation, the result is determined by the input assumptions, parameters and values, so there is considerable opportunity for judgement and change.

Following are a few of the obvious ones;

  • Time frame over which the return will be measured. Budgets are annual, while marketing investments tend to be cumulative over a long period, sometimes decades.
  • The means by which you judge the revenue to be a result of marketing activity. The demarcation between marketing and sales is often an entertaining debate, which I tend to finish by removing all direct sales costs, particularly price discounting activity which is generally brand destructive, and counting everything else,  but allocating a weighting.
  • The components of the cost equation, such as product development costs, customer service, and logistics that are included, and their weighting, which is also a challenging debate. Standard accounting packages are poor at collecting and consolidating this information, it usually takes a tailored process to gather and record the data in an easily reportable format.

Reporting requires metrics that build a picture of the processes to which the activities all contribute.  Every business will be different, but a few of the metrics that have served well for my clients are:

  • Sales of new products across timeframes, 1,2 & 3 years, with some calculation of the losses from cannibalisation, although it is absolutely wrong to use this as an argument to not take an action. Better you cannibalise your sales than a competitor eat them for you.
  • Value and number of prospects at each stage of the sales pipeline
  • Velocity through the sales pipeline
  • Conversion measures at each point in the sales pipeline
  • Share of wallet, for individual customers, and various groups of customers
  • Customer longevity and churn
  • Market share
  • Geographic measures
  • Gross margin and GM ratios
  • Sensitivity to competitive price promotion
  • Customer satisfaction scores
  • Net promoter scores
  • Various social media measures (not likes)

It is also a mistake to measure everything, you will just drown in reports and minutiae. Report on the items that can be demonstrated to move the performance needle, where there is a demonstrable cause and effect chain in place that is connected to strategy as well as revenue.

Finally, make ROMI a core performance measure of the enterprise, everyone in an organisation has some influence on the outcomes that can be connected to marketing success. Expose those connections at every level and make people responsible and accountable.

Need some help with all this, find someone with the experience and wisdom to deliver.