Give Charman Stone a medal.

Charman Stone Member for Murray

Charman Stone Member for Murray

The decision by the federal Government not to support SPC  last week has opened a can of worms. This time, the worms have some grunt, as the head worm, Charman Stone has shone a light into the corners of the decision, and in the process, dumped on her party.

Thank heavens!!.

For the first time as another important business in the Australian food processing industry seemingly disappears, there is some debate about the facts, and analysis of the implications,  rather than just having emotion  and  ideology spewed at us. Anything other than facts, and dispassionate analysis based on those facts, is meaningless if we are to come to grips with the real commercial issues, rather than those of political self preservation.

All this has been sparked by Stones vigorous defense of SPC in her electorate, culminating this morning in an interview in which she as much as called the PM a liar.

Pretty strong, even from one noted to be a bit outspoken

Over a long period, the Australian food processing industry has been gutted by a range of factors, from the globalisation of supply chains, the power of the retail duopoly, years of drought (drought is really  the new normal)  short sighted, risk averse, and spineless management, union intractability, subsidies of various sorts recieved by international competitors, and the high $A. Some we can address, some we can’t, but allocating blame is not a helpful strategy.

Hopefully, some further intelligent debate will evolve, but the inconsistencies in policy, highlighted by the Cadbury decision before the election, and announcement today of support for Huon Aquaculture will do nothing for the confidence of investors.

Charman Stone is aggressively putting her case, lets see some other pollies grow some backbone.

Social or Viral

social or viral

One of the questions I am most often asked is “how do we make this go viral”. To my mind it is also one of the silliest.

The objective of “social” weather it be media, or a drink in the pub,  is engagement with others. The objective of viral is, well… not sure, apart from entertaining  shocking,  scamming ,infecting and occasionally informing people we do not know, will probably never meet, and who will have no impact on our lives.

However, the manner of the diffusion of content on the net logically has an impact on the level of engagement an individual will have with any piece of shared content.

Something that is “e-broadcast” to  everyone on a list by an unknown person or institution to the individual receivers, is unlikely to have high open and resend rates, so will not go far. By contrast, something sent selectively to individuals with whom there is already a connection of some sort will have a higher open and resend rate.

It is these open and resend metrics that count, in effect an endorsement from a sender you know that it is worth your time to open the link.

The return on effort is definitely with social, not viral.

 

 

The year of analytics

Australia day

In Australia today, January 26, it is “Australia Day”, the day we Aussies, or most of us, think the place was started, conveniently ignoring the thousands of years of habitation before Captain Philip turned up with a bunch of convicts in Botany Bay.

For most of us it is also the start of the working year, the end of any summer holiday, back to the grindstone.

For me, thinking about the coming year over everyone else’s  break (we self employed do not get one) I came  to the conclusion that 2014 was going to be the year of Analytics, Big Data if you prefer,  the year when we finally  recognised  the now central place analytics hold in our commercial and private lives.

It does not have to be the geek version of analytics. Most of the businesses I work with are small, some tiny, but every one has potential assets hidden amongst the various databases they collect, usually without trying. Riverina Grove, a manufacturer of fine Italian food products in Griffith  has 6 years of pretty simple data held on excel that can describe by line item every transaction over that time by a range of parameters. Not hard to collect, as it comes out of their standard accounting software, not hard to analyse, Pivot tables in excel do a great job, certainly not “big data” by most measures,  but Gold to an SME, should  they choose to use it.

At the other end of the scale, is Netflix, an institution in the US, disrupting totally the movie rental industry, and whilst it has not always got it all right,  their use of analytics has driven their recovery from stumbles, and success with customers. This long piece in “The Atlantic” outlining  Netflix’s data capability to turn data into useable marketing information is a “must read” for marketers.

Data is the secret weapon of organisations, the challenge is to use it, to approach the data with the view that somewhere in here are answers I need, but to get them out, not only do I need the data skills, but the creativity to find ways to extract and enhance them. Josh Wills has a definition of a data scientist, that new profession that has emerged in the last few years I like, “better at software than any statistician, and better at statistics than any software engineer”  that comes from this terrific Slideshare presentation on data science.

As Warren Buffet so famously said, “In God we trust,  all others bring data”.

It is up to us all to figure out how to use it, but while you are procrastinating, your competitor is probably ramping up his capability.

Happy Australia Day.

Three steps to agreement

 

 disagreement

Peoples reaction to a question, choice, or situation is always coloured by their experience, education, background, and a myriad of other qualitative factors. Where there is a divergence of views, it can become heated, as people invest emotionally in an outcome consistent with their existing mental frameworks. This step from a simple divergence of views to an emotional disagreement can be very small, and quick to make.

Mediating many disagreements over the years ,I have found that arriving at a sensible conclusion rather than just  a compromise, is usually achieved in a three stage process:

    1. Recognise and agree on what is data, supposition, and opinion.
    2. Understand what the data tells you, and what you can agree on
    3. Ask what would have to be true for the parties to the conversation to alter their position on an issue.

This simple device of separating what we think from what we know, identifying the gaps, then filling them with data that is agreed serves as a useful tool to both diffuse volatile discussions, and usefully identify information gaps needed to be filled for a sustainable decision to be made, rathe than a compromise reached that falls apart under pressure.

Try it, next time ask “what would have to be true” when faced by a decision, emotion, and a lack of objectivity.

Visual analytics and statistics

Picture

Analytics is perhaps the buzzword of the moment, it seems to be attracting some of the same purveyors of snake-oil previously touting SEO as the saviour of all sins.

Amongst the detritus, however, there are some gems. Avinash Kaushik’s  “Occum’s Razor” blog is one such gem, as is Scott Brinkers” Chief marketing technologist” blog. I am sure there are others, but the weight of numbers  is with the snakes.

A mate of mine has a small business specialising in collecting data from HR environments, applying analytics and offering advice on areas of improvement. Tasks like board performance  assessment are his bread and butter.

A few weeks ago in a casual conversation, he was down cast, as he had been beaten in a tender by a competitor, for the third time recently, when he knows from long experience the algorithms in his analytics are way more robust than those of his competitor. The difference in the tenders was made not by the analytics, but by the visual representations of the analytics. His  competitor has invested in visuals, whereas he has continued to invest in the data integrity.

Visuals sell, as they offer simplistic answers to complex questions, but  the question remains, how good are the answers.

The idea muscle

brainpower

We all know instinctively that with exercise, we get better. Running, jumping, swimming, all that stuff makes us fitter, healthier, but it takes time and effort, and we are all busy.

Busy doing what?  Besides, running is boring, sweaty, and bad for the knees.

We also know that going to school is supposed to teach us stuff that is useable in life, like how to solve a quadratic equation. Last time I did that was 5 minutes before I forgot how to do it, 45 years ago, so perhaps not such a great life skill, for me at least.

However, exercising our brain, our idea muscle if you like seems pretty important however, you think about it.

A friend of mine is stricken by a form of muscular dystrophy, debilitating and dehumanising physically, but rather than becoming despondent and reclusive, she has sought places where she can exercise the only muscle unaffected by the physical depreciation, her brain.

Creative, interesting, engaging, hugely knowledgeable, and with a couple of extra languages over the last decade, she has exercised her idea muscle in a way that would not have happened, she assures me, without the affliction.

In a world that is changing before our eyes at a rate unprecedented in history, where jobs for life are no longer, ambiguity and uncertainty are increasing exponentially, surely we need to consider what exercises we should be taking and teaching that make our idea muscles fitter.

Most certainly, we should be teaching our kids how to exercise this muscle, they will need it more than we ever did.