Jul 19, 2011 | Leadership, Management, Personal Rant
I was struck last month by the blizzard of numbers and alternative views presented as a part of the release of the national accounts.
The economy was down, but the floods in QLD and Vic had largely caused the problem and was it short term only, consumer spending was up, but we are saving more than ever, and so on, and on, and on. However, the overall picture is so rosy that the Reserve Bank appeared likely to put up interest rates again pretty soon.
Little of it struck true at a “gut” level, a two speed economy is probably more like a 6 speed economy, with a couple of gears going backwards, and the picture if you take away mining, just a horrible mess of varying degrees.
Thank heavens over the last fortnight the Westpac chief economist has come out and said that interest rates were in fact too high, and all but the mining industry was struggling. On Monday the Reserve Bank minutes released indicated they were taking note of the problems, and rates were likely to be steady for a while.
In my patch, in and around the food industry, one of the largest drivers in the economy, the landscape is littered with landmines. It has not been worse in my 35 years of engagement. No numbers here, just tacit knowledge based on observation, discussion, and experience, all of which run counter to the heroic stuff mouthed explicitly by the treasurer, most economists, and the shiny pants set in Canberra who just rely on the macro numbers.
Jul 3, 2011 | Management, Personal Rant
I miss the mob
Derek Sivers has an oblique take on things, he seems to be able to see perspectives most of us miss. This short “I miss the mob” video should be shown to all who get confused about why things are done.
Jun 24, 2011 | Change, Innovation, Marketing, Personal Rant, Social Media
Telstra is one of the best yielding shares around, management knows there is no other reason to hold them, so effectively pump the share price with good yields. At the current prices they are a good buy, being assured of a juicy yield, and probably 50% market share from the NBN deal, all of which makes Telstra pretty attractive short term , but long term?
It seems to me that a strategy of squeezing earnings out of an existing business model when that model is being attacked from all sides is always tough, but in a telco it is almost sure to be terminal given the rate of innovation occurring from the sidelines.
There is now a free VOIP app for iPhone, “viber” that eliminates call costs, including international roaming which has been around for only a couple of months, but has attracted 12 million users, and expanding at net speed. On top the damage Skype must have inflicted, and will inflict into the very near future as Microsoft (presumably) sets about building cheap teleconferencing services onto the Skype platform, traditional telcos must be in a long term world of pain as they see their markets stolen by innovators they did not see coming.
I ask again, who would buy shares in Telstra, other than as a short term strategy to get a slice of the public donation of $11 billion and short term market share.
Jun 21, 2011 | Alliance management, Collaboration, Communication, Customers, Personal Rant
Negotiation is a process of finding a solution to a question that is acceptable to all parties. It should go without saying that the first step is to actually communicate, setting out to find areas of compromise, and places of potential value not immediately obvious that occur in many disputes.
The alternative is standing back and throwing rocks, which can only be a winning strategy when you hold all the cards, but then it is not a negotiation, but a statement. However, when the power in a dispute is spread around, declining a seat at the table almost inevitably means you end up on the menu.
The unilateral banning of the live cattle trade to Indonesia was such a rock throwing exercise. Thank heavens the dills in Canberra appear to have woken up in time, and are at least communicating with stakeholders, hopefully with the intention of finding a solution, rather than just doing a post cock-up arse cover.
May 29, 2011 | Branding, Personal Rant
Why does the government set out to create conflict? Is it to distract attention? The current “debate” on cigarette packaging is a silly nonsense, a politically inspired furphy.
Obviously it is in the community’s interest to reduce smoking rates, smoking kills, and obviously the cigarette companies will protect their investment in a legal product, immoral as that may seem to some.
Philosophically, I am alarmed at the proposal to retrospectively trash the investment in brands made over a long time by sellers of the noxious weed, it has been legal to promote their products by any means allowed by the moving legislative goalposts , just very difficult for the last few years. Why is it different to the announcement by the NSW Premier that retrospectively he will reduce the feed in rate for solar panels? Both are an injustice, no matter how ill advised the original circumstances.
In the event that this legislation passes, we deserve to pay huge amounts of damages to the fag companies as compensation for their trashed brand equity. In an environment where business needs a rule of law as a basis for long term decision making, retrospectivity, no matter how superficially attractive, should be a no-no.
Why don’t they just double excise, and announce that in 12 months, it will be doubled again. That would do more to reduce smoking rates than plain packs, not open the IP compensation box, and it would be easy. It would also drag in a bit of short term revenue to pay the hospital bills of those few smokers left.
Perhaps it is because they do not want to be nasty to all those smoking voters, they would rather open the community to huge compensation payouts. Silly, silly people.
May 11, 2011 | Leadership, Personal Rant, Small business
Amidst all the blathering following the federal budget Tuesday night I have not seen one comment, political or otherwise that points out the crisis in manufacturing, particularly food industry related manufacturing.
Sure, lots of puff about how hard it is for exporters, but the terms of trade are better than any time in the last 140 years, so, by implication, how bad can it really be?
The food industry is now dominated by large firms, two retailers have a stranglehold, most of the products you buy are imported, and there is precious little manufacturing done here anymore. Australia is now a net importer of food, yes, a net importer, according to the AFGC State of the nation report 2010, try telling that story around the BBQ on Saturday, “they won’t believe you”
One of my clients, one of the few SME’s who have survived the onslaught of the last 20 years, yesterday missed out on a contract to supply one of the big two retailers on a housebrand contract, missed out does not describe it, his cost of production is just under the landed prices of competitive quotes. If you adjust for the exchange rate of two years ago, he may have won the business, but now!!!
The other side of the terms of trade is how cheaply stuff can be imported. OK for electronics, we do not manufacture them, but Food??. We are no longer self sufficient, and if this small bloke goes under, as most of the others have, 15 people in a modest sized country town lose their jobs, and he loses his house, super, and 30 years of effort. When the exchange rate goes back, after China and India slow down, as they will, and new mines in Africa and South America come on stream, it will be too late for him, and us.
But do you hear anything about this?, does anybody care? Judging by the blather, the answer is NO, or perhaps it is just too confronting a problem for the pollies to acknowledge until they get dragged screaming to it. Much easier to blather.
Update: June 11 2013.
Nothing has changed, Simplot anounced closures last week in Bathurst and Denvenport, Rosella went bust a few months ago, and a host of SME’s in the food industry are no more. In the wider economy, the mining investment boom has slowed right down, manufacturing is still in the crapper, and unlikely to find much succour in the $A being just below parity for the first time in several years. The headline example is Ford announcing last week the closure of local manufacturing, which galvanised the pollies to announce lots of “support” for the workforce, luckily heavily unionised, or they would get nothing, like the Fairfax journos shown the door a few months ago without a political peep.
Meanwhile, the Treasurer talks about the strong economy (well it is compared to Portugal) and almost full employment, but the statistical definition of “employed” is nonsence, meaning there is a huge weight of hidden underemployment around, and as a result nobody is spending. Nobody is taking up the NBN, even if they are the lucky few who are strategically located in a politically sensative spot, and may have the opportunity to do so, and the reluctance has nothing to do with asbestos. The speculation today has been all about the liklihood of Gillard still leading the labor party in September, let alone the country. The PM is in QLD, sprouting the “Gonski” Education reforms as the saviour, quoting numbers emerging from the modelling that has been done as the evidence of her committment, and we know how well that worked in several previous initiatives.
Can the labour party stop talking about itself?? We do not want to hear!
It really is Cloud Cuckoo land.
