The biggest broom in town: #Scotty

Feb 8, 2020 | Personal Rant

 

Occam’s Razor is now a relatively well understood term, coming from the 14th century philosopher and monk William of Ockham. It is a discipline that demands that facts about a situation be distilled down to their simplest form, and the extraneous cut out.

Just prior to the last election that saw #scottyfrommarketing scrape in to retain the government seats by one seat, I wondered at the emergence of ‘Occam’s Broom‘, the phenomenon of anything but facts being shunted around, and any politically unhelpful fact, smelly deal,  or outright dodgy behaviour, ‘broomed’ under the carpet.

Some of my friends thought my association with inner city, soy latte and chardonnay sipping  lefties had finally got to me.

Now we seem to have the broom working double time, sweeping away the things we should be thinking about in a welter of activity seemingly designed to help us settle back and think #scotty and his crew have it all under control, and it is OK to go back to being apathetic.

Let’s look at the list.

  • There will be a royal commission on the cause of the fires. Hello, we already know because there have been previous royal commissions and senate reports that told us. We also had Ross Garnaut in 2008 nominate 2020 as the point of great inflexion, when the climate forces he saw would coalesce into an inferno. Our governments response: Activity for the sake of activity to misdirect attention.
  • Angus Taylor. Dear Angus, son of the  born to rule class who can do no wrong, except send off dumb, really, really dumb emails based in falsified information designed to throw dirt on a political opponent. The police inquiry has been dropped, and Taylors statement included the words ‘The Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Attorney-General’s pursuit of this matter is a shameful abuse of their office and a waste of our policing agencies’ time.”  What abject hypocrisy when the Federal Police are still investigating several journalists for publishing stuff the pollies  wanted to keep secret, presumably at the direction of those same pollies.
  • #Scotty will now meet with the group of former fire commissioners, lambasted as irrelevant just a few months ago. Meanwhile, Scotties language has subtly changed to recognise the reality of climate change, but not enough to do anything more that try and rort the Paris agreement for so called carry over credits. What is he going to do with that pesky and sometimes terminally idiotic group of back benchers who seem hell bent on building a few new coal fired power stations?
  • The Royal Commission into the aged seems to have been swept away by the fires, but I am sure will come back to haunt pretty soon. Having an ageing and now frail mother, this item is of close, personal interest.
  • Adani has been fined $20,000 for lying to the QLD environmental agencies assessing their applications to dig a big hole in central Queensland, and flog off the coal. It seems they are running true to the form set in India, where Mr Adani is regarded highly as a dodgy dealer, but 20 grand will barely make a dent in petty cash. Laughable. At least their chances of commercial funding appear to be dim to zero after Larry Fink, chairman of Blackrock had his say. This debacle of Yes/No/maybe that  has plagued this project, weather you support it or not, is a symptom of our collective inability to make a decision based on principal and fact, and then stick to it. Federal and State governments duplicate each other endlessly, then point fingers, while capital markets shake their collective heads.
  • Then there is the National party. What a party they are, now Mr. Invisible has seen off the challenge (for now) that was never going to happen from Barnaby, hell bent on a resurrection. Meanwhile the Senator who caused the kerfuffle, former Nats deputy Bridget McKenzie, while on the back bench in disgrace, remains the Nat’s leader in the senate, with all the benefits that entails. Go figure.
  • Now we have the son of sports rorts, $150 million bucks to the Female Facilities and Water Safety Stream program, details of which are still emerging, but it seems the whole lot went to marginal seats the Libs had to win, sometimes for things they did not know they had asked for, needed, or in a few cases, even wanted. I guess the only saving grace is that the public outcry should be so loud that much of the money allocated will be withdrawn, and put towards saving the Treasurers much vaunted surplus.
  • I simply cannot believe that #scotty and his henchmen did  not know intimately of these two ‘sports rorts programs’, as they all seemed to have had their snouts deeply in the trough I am surprised they did not drown. I will admit to being a bit more than usually narky, as a sporting club I chair missed out.  I wonder if it is because we are in a safe Labor seat?
  • The economy is in the shitter, and circling. Our trusty treasurer continues to tell us that all will be well, the plan is working, there may be some short term aggravations because of the fires and the money needed to help, but they are on the job. Groan: I suspect they need a new plan!.
  • What about the ongoing poor management, seemingly across the board? The NDIS, costing billions, but many of those it was supposed to help are still in desperate need of help. And, what about the submarines, again, billions over budget already, and probably a decade behind, meaning the Collins class will remain in service until well after I am dead. Not only that, the whole sub program as it stands was created to shore up a few seats in Adelaide, which will end up costing probably 10 billion a seat. Puts a few swimming pools and unwanted change rooms to shame, a lousy 250 million, petty cash to this lot. Remember ‘Robodebt’? State and Local government and its agencies are no better, they all seem to think the  tax revenues are for their entertainment and to purchase votes, rather than improving the lives of those from whom it was ripped. Need I go on, I will just depress myself.

Listening to the statements coming from the government about all this, and the other stuff going on, you would think they are utterly confident that it will all be swept under the carpet. Occam’s Broom doing some great work. However, their credibility is so terminally damaged, I cannot see how they can possibly recover. Unless of course, the other lot really stuff it up, as they did last time.

I am reminded again of Churchill’s observation that: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time”, but am tempted to reconsider my agreement.

January 1, 2020. An introspective.

Jan 1, 2020 | Personal Rant, Strategy

 

It is the end of another year, in fact a decade.

‘What have I achieved’ seems to be a fair question.

For 24 years I have worked as a ’boutique’ consultancy. Some may think this is  just another word for ‘one man band,’ and they would be correct, however, there is a difference between my situation, and that of many ‘one man bands’

I chose it.

24 years ago, I took a strategic decision that after having a corporate career that ended abruptly, and then failed to restart, that I would  not play the corporate game again.

As I searched for a job that would both satisfy my aspirations and curiosity, while supporting a young family, people were coming to me for advice, and assistance. For 12 months or so I obliged while focussing on the job search, before the penny dropped.

I liked it  this way.

No corporate framework that dictated my life, over which I had limited control.

No fixed income that just demanded presence, along with sweat and actions that were not necessarily adding value.

No responsibility for things, processes, or people I had not chosen.

No position of institutional power and influence.

No institutional resources available to be deployed with no personal financial commitment.

No built in structures by which to manage my days, weeks and months.

On my own, utterly irrelevant to most passers-by.

On the other hand:

The kids have grown up, are educated, and pursuing worthwhile and satisfying careers

The house is paid off,

And, perhaps most importantly, my time is my own to deploy as I see fit against my personal priorities that deliver intellectual and financial returns to my family.

Over that 24 years, there have been times of plenty, and times of drought. A range of former and current clients in all sorts of industries, facing all sorts of challenges where I have been able to add value, several contract general management stints, partly proving to myself that I can still manage and lead effectively inside an institutional framework (although my dislike of silly rules and deluded people just gets another boost) but through everything, is the strong thread of doing only things that added value directly. No politics, no corporate bullshit, and, plenty of satisfaction.

As a side gig, the StrategyAudit blog, now a decade old has in excess of 1,800 posts, some of which are many years old, but still attract readers and commentary day in and day out. Those posts and the research material behind them is a bank of intellectual capital that is irreplaceable to me, and of considerable value to those who have taken the time to read, follow, and often comment on them.

I turn 68 in a few days, but do  not  feel it, and while I may look a bit weathered, most are surprised, and I am told, I generally do not act my age. However, that has been a continuing response since I was about 10. I can still hear my old dad intoning: ‘For heavens sake, act your age’

Meanwhile, Australia’s east coast burns after decades of self-serving neglect, an  institutional tin ear turned towards the science,  and decisions that reflect the political view that long term planning is limited by the electoral cycle.

In spite of the fire inspired gloom, and for some, desperation, of this new years day, have a happy and prosperous 2020, and I look forward to the coming decade.

The simple, and real reason Bill blew it

The simple, and real reason Bill blew it

May 21, 2019 | Marketing, Personal Rant

In the tsunami of analysis seeking to understand the loss of the election by Labor, I have yet to hear anyone put their finger on what I consider to be the real reason.

Psychology.

Specifically Prospect Theory.

Prospect Theory was articulated by Nobel laureate Danial Kahneman in his great book (required reading) ‘Thinking Fast & Slow’. It is the psychological relationship between the pain of a prospective loss, compared to the pleasure of a prospective gain. In the published theory Kahneman and his collaborator Amos Tversky put the effect as twice the expected pleasure from the gain necessary to overcome the prospective pain of loss. However, in interviews, he has said that the relationship is more like 5-7 times, but when writing the papers, they thought nobody would believe them, so they settled on twice.

Think about this relationship as it applied to the offers of the two major parties on Saturday.

Labor promised some pain for a few, but failed to articulate who the few were, and justify the pain, so all voters saw was ‘Pain’. By contrast, the Liberals promised no pain, and lots of gain, albeit almost totally bereft of detail beyond election rhetoric.

It was not so obvious to me beforehand, but with the benefit of that magnificent justifying mechanism, hindsight, it is as obvious as the  nose on your face. Labor did  not just need a better salesman, which they certainly did, they also needed someone who understood the psychology underpinning successful marketing.

Header cartoon is from www.tomgauld.com with my thanks.

Where is Occum when you really need him?

Where is Occum when you really need him?

May 17, 2019 | Change, Leadership, Personal Rant

We need Occum’s Razor to be applied to our deliberations on all sorts of things, from our personal and professional lives, to the  way politics is being practised around the western world.

The term comes from the writings of William of Ockham, a 14th century philosopher monk, and calls for simplicity of logic, the removal of superfluous ingredients when you have a simpler idea that accommodates the facts just as well.

In effect,  strip an argument back to its essential elements, and work with the facts. Conjecture, personality, and status quo of all kinds should play no part in the development of an idea.

Tomorrow is federal election day 2019, the culmination of a campaign that really started back in August last year when Malcolm Turnbull was rolled by his own party.

The ‘campaign’ has been little more than a display of clichés, vague and inconsistent promises,  and pork barrelling to both fragile electorates and interest groups. I guess to be fair, it must be said that the Labor party has at least set out to articulate an agenda of change that does make an offer to voters, but the chief salesman is a dud.  

What appears to be happening more and more is the phenomena of ‘Occum’s Broom’, which suggests that inconvenient facts and unwanted insights are swept under the carpet. Utilising Occums broom is both intellectually dishonest, and way too easy to deploy as a shortcut to some sort of outcome preferred by one group or another, who seek power.  

By Sunday, we will know who wielded the broom to the best effect, at least in the house of Representatives. In the Senate, I suspect there will be a bit of a wait as the dust from the broom settles its way through the myriad of minor ‘parties’ whose primary vote is limited to their families, and a few zealots.

Bob Hawke passed last night, and I cannot help but wonder if his passing will deliver a telling fillip to the Labor vote, as we are confronted by personalities from both sides observing his great contribution to the nation, and to the practice of politics as a means to make positive and lasting change.

The header cartoon is again by Hugh McLeod at www.Gapingvoid.com and represents the question we will all be asking ourselves come Monday.

 

A reflection on Anzac Day, 2019

A reflection on Anzac Day, 2019

Apr 25, 2019 | Communication, Personal Rant

It is Anzac day 2019, just a public holiday to some,  but a lot more to others.

It is also my beautiful daughters 34th birthday, so it is a good day.

As we take the day off, some will just be thankful that the self-serving, fact free, fabricated drama, and partisan nonsense of this election season has also taken a break. 

Anzac Day has re-emerged from a slumber in the late 60’s to mid-seventies,  when it seemed that it had faded in our collective memory. In 1976 I massaged the itinerary of  a European camping tour I was leading to take us down the Gallipoli peninsula to the Lone Pine memorial.  I was surprised that we were so close, and the visit was not included, but much more surprised that so few of the 45 twenty something passengers, knew much about what had happened there.

Perhaps the re-emergence of awareness and pride in the role Australians have played in wars has less to do with the facts of the sacrifices made by our forebears, than it has to do with our collective search for something to believe in, as they did. Something to bind us together, trust the word of a stranger because they looked in our eyes and said it was so.

The tools of modern communication are extraordinary, but we are more alone, more fragmented,  more focussed on ourselves, and more pessimistic than ever, while  we live in a world of plenty. 

It should be the opposite way around. We are highly social animals, the tools should have made ‘community’ easier, not harder, not more elusive. 

I look at all this through the eyes of a cynical, but well informed, educated, and thoughtful 67 year old baby boomer. I am a recipient of the largess brought on by the post war boom, and general prosperity since. While there have been some set-backs, on balance it has been a good life. That good life is in good measure thanks to those who went before, and made it possible.

Lest we forget.

Happy birthday Jennifer, now let your cranky old dad go and tend the BBQ, as an excuse to soothe his parched throat.

 

 

 

The problem with politics

The problem with politics

Feb 22, 2019 | Governance, Leadership, Personal Rant

We are facing two elections here in NSW, one for the state government, and then federal almost immediately following.

What a mess we are in, disengagement, distrust, cynicism on the part of the electorate, and flatulent promises and claims by the body politic.

The problem is trust.

There is none.

When I apply what I have learnt in 45 years of commercial life to this problem of trust in politics, I come up with a few simple observations.

Lack of strategic clarity.

There is no consistency between the claims and stated objectives of each of the parties and the experience of those who will be voting. The same party cannot even get their messages consistent between the state and federal levels of the parties, so why on earth do they think we, the electorate will believe their conflicting, fatuous and hyperbolic messages.

No accountability.

As a director of several companies, there are rules that apply that demand truth be told to shareholders. Clearly these rules do not apply to politicians as they talk to their stakeholders, we, the electorate. I would be dragged into court if I told the sort of porkies, used facts selectively and out of context, and generally failed to answer any question in a substantive manner,  the way politicians do as routine. They take credit for good things over which they had no influence, and blame the others  for any outcome that can be painted as poor. They are simply unaccountable for their promises, there is no sanctions on them beyond the cliché about the ballot box being the ultimate sanction.

We feel scammed every day as a result.

Governance, where is it?

The governance of government, and political processes generally, leaves a lot to be desired. It is appropriate that there are rules about the manner in which public money is spent. However, when the rules get in the way of common sense and equity, while leaving gaping holes through which the scammers can swim, it can be seen as a system that favours those in the know, at the expense of the rest of us. It is also the case that when  you regulate something, by definition, behaviour not captured by the regulations is OK, irrespective of the morality of the behaviour.  This can be clearly seen in the case of the financial services cesspool uncovered by Royal Commissioner Hayne. 

To be fair, public governance is a massive task of strategic and moral leadership,  and there are bound to be missteps, but we need to be better than we are, by a mile.

As a final observation, these people cannot govern themselves, why is it then so strange that we do  not trust them with the wider task of governing the rest of us?

Absence of cross functional collaboration.

When it is clear that the right hand does not know  what the left is doing, and seemingly does not care, why would we trust either? This not only applies to the functions of any individual government, but to each of the three levels we are burdened with, overlaid by the federated structure of states we are left with from colonial times.

We could not design a model better able to stuff up just about everything they touch if we tried!

The only antidote to all of the above is leadership. The sort of leadership  that takes responsibility, offers a compelling vision of the future and articulates a credible path towards it, is prepared to take difficult decisions and argue the logic publicly, then lives to be accountable for it all.

Pity there is so little of that going around.

 

Cartoon header credit: Again, Hugh McLeod at gaping void nails it!