How did I do in 2015?

How did I do in 2015?

Jan 1, 2016 | Change, Marketing, Small business, Strategy

So, it is again New Years Day. January 1, 2016.

Another year gone, but where?

I hope 2015 was a good one for you, and that 2016 is better.

For my part, I will keep on offering up my musings on the challenges facing small businesses in the hope that along the way some of them serve to help some way to make the path easier.

A fundamental part of the way I believe things  should be done is that we learn from our mistakes, so as not to repeat them. To do that we must be able to see the effects of our choices, while understanding the reasons and motivations underlying them at the time, and reflect with clarity and objectivity.

Therefore, it is only fair that my predictions made at this time last year come under scrutiny, before I venture into rubbing my crystal balls for 2016.

Following is my “predictions” post in January 2015, with some commentary added this morning.

You be the judge, score me, comment and point out what I missed, and what I may have called right.

 

Small business is at a crossroads as we move into 2015.

Either they embrace the opportunities and tools presented by the disruption of the “old ways” by digital technology, or they slowly, and in some cases, quickly, become irrelevant, obsolete and broke as customers move elsewhere.

Your choice, as much of the technology can now be relatively  easily outsourced,  and at a very reasonable cost, certainly less than most would expect. The two major challenges in outsourcing, snake oil salesmen and not knowing what you want and need,  are little different to any other category of purchased service.

So, to the trends that will influence your business in 2015 that you need to be at the very least aware of, and in most cases take some sort of pre-emptive action.

      • Marketing technology will continue its rise and rise. The thousands of small marketing technology players who are currently emerging will be forcibly integrated, as the big guys buy “Martec” real estate. Adobe, Microsoft, et al will spend money, and the little guys will be swallowed as the gorillas fill the holes in their offerings, and new segments emerge. At the other end of the scale, there will remain plenty of options for smaller businesses to step into the automated marketing space. The current rash of innovations to make life easier for small businesses   will continue and as those smaller single purpose tools gain traction, and more are launched to fill the niches that exist to service small businesses.

Comment January 2016.  Martec, has become more of a board table topic over the year as investment increases, more options open up, and the “make or break” of marketing has become increasingly recognised.  There has been some takeover and merger activity, and it will only increase in number and scale as the thousands of services merge, Bruce Henderson’s classic  rule of three and Four will continue to apply itself. IBM has also entered the fray launching “Watson”  as an integrated Martec product package.However, despite the inevitable move towards scale,  Martech  will remain a fertile field for innovation as technologists and marketers collaborate on the best ways to identify, engage and lead to a transaction the individual customer.

 

      • Peer to peer marketing  will continue to grow at “Moores law” type rates. Jerry Owyangs honeycombdiagram and data tells it all. Almost any service I can think of has the potential to be disrupted in some way by the peer to peer capabilities being delivered by technology.

Comment January 2016. Absolutely right. In December the NSW government legislated to enable ride sharing services like Uber to compete without legislative interference beyond some basic passenger safety directed rules. This is in despite of the entrenched political position of the Taxi industry and an aggressive campaign including civil actions brought against Uber drivers.  During the latter part of the year, a technically challenged mate of mine spend 3 months in Europe with his wife. Nothing pre-booked, but they easily found accommodation every night using Airbnb and several similar services. When the over 60’s whose device until a few moths ago ‘was just a phone’, is hooked, the hook is set deep and permanent across demographics. Anecdotal but powerful evidence of the penetration of the power of peer to peer markets. 

 

      • Content creation as a process. The next evolution in marketing, the move that I think “content” will start to make from being individual pieces of information produced in an ad hoc manner to being a process that is highly individualised, responsive to the specific context, and informed by the behaviour of the individual recipient scraped from the digital ecosystem. It means that content creation needs to be come an integrated  process, more than a “campaign” . The term “content” will become redundant, it is just “marketing”, focussing on the individual customer.

Comment January 2016. The evolution continues, evidenced by the number of blog posts and templates for “content calendars” that have appeared in the last few months.Over the course of the year I have instituted editorial calendars of one sort or another with several clients, and all are now seeing returns from the efforts that ensure continuation. I am sure I am  not the only consultant from the one man operations as I am to the ‘brand’ consulting services seeing this happening around them, and this trend will certainly (in my mind) continue in 2016

 

      • Marketing will evolve even more strongly as the path to the top corporate job. Functional expertise is becoming less important, what is important is the ability to connect the dots in flattened organisations that work on collaborative projects rather than to a functional tune. This trend is as true for small businesses as it is for major corporations. There will still be challenges as many marketers are really just mothers of clichés, but those relying on the cliché and appearances for credibility are becoming more obvious as the marketing expertise in the boardroom increases, and the availability of analytics quickly uncovers the charlatans. This will make the marketing landscape increasingly competitive on bases other than price.

Comment January 2016 . Anecdotally from what I have seen, this appears to be correct, but I do not have the data to be sure. It certainly makes sense as a way of putting the customer at the ‘pointy end’ of a businesses activities and priorities.As an aside, I have commented repeatedly on the qualities required for success, the primary one these days beyond the necessary functional experience and education being curiosity. Good marketing people are curious, they tend to be less likely than many others to accept the status quo, so make good all round leaders. Pity there are so few good marketing people around, ‘doing marketing’ at university these days is often a choice made in the absence of options. 

 

      • Recognition that marketing is the driving force of any successful enterprise will become accepted, even by the “beanies”. Seth Godin has been banging on for years about the end of the industrial/advertising model, the old school of interruption, but many enterprises have continued to deploy the old model, but  I sense that the time has come.  2015 will be the year that sees marketing finally  takes over.

Comment January 2016. I am still waiting.

 

      • Video will become bigger part of marketing, particularly advantaging the small businesses that have the drive to deploy it and the capability to manage the outsourcing of the bits that they either cannot do, or cannot do economically. The old adage of a picture telling a thousand words is coming to life in twitter streams, instagram shares, and all social media platforms. The video trend will be supported by increasing use of graphics in all forms, but particularly data visualisations as a means to communicate meaning from the mountains of data that we can now generate. The density of data on the web is now such that new ways to cut though, communicate and engage need to be found, and I suspect those will all employ visuals in some form, perhaps interactive?

Comment January 2016. It seems the big marketers poured money into made for the web video over 2015, spending not just on the creative and production, but on the marketing of the material. While video might be a  it of the newest shiny thing, we are visual animals, and there is little doubt the growth will continue.Many of the SME’s I deal with are recognising the opportunities and building their video capabilities either in house or more usually by finding someone outside with the skills, and tit is paying off. 

 

      • Pay to go ad free is a trend that will evolve suddenly, to some degree it is an evolution of subscription marketing. Free to date platforms will charge to be ad free,  whilst new platforms and models such as the Dollar Shave Club will probably evolve.

Comment January 2016. Advertising has been the engine of growth for media companies over 100 years, then came the web, and the indiscriminate bombarding of any mouse click with ads, many of them malicious, so evolved ad blockers. Ironically, looking for data to support this contention, I googled the phrase and up came an article on Forbes magazine, but since I went there last, they have put in a requirement that you disable your  adblocker to get to the article. It may not be with money, but we all recognise the value of an email address these days. Rest my case.

 

      • The death of mass and the power of triibes will become more evident. The “cat pictures ” nature of  content of social media platforms will reduce as marketers discover smart ways to package and deliver messages that resonate and motivate action. The agility of digitally capable small businesses will open up opportunities for them their bigger rivals will not see, or not be compatible with their existing business models.

Comment January 2016. There still seems to me as much if not more of the cat photo rubbish floating around, but mixed in is the increasingly targeted messages that resonate with customers and consumers in some pretty obscure niches. A small client of mine was persuaded to really “niche-down’ in 2015, and reaped significant benefits as a result. Niche marketing will continue to grow.

 

      • Local,  provenance, and  “real”. Marketing is about stories, so here is a trend made for  marketers, and you do not have too be a multinational, just have a good story, rooted in truth and humanity. ‘Hyper-local” will become a significant force. Marketing aimed at small geographies, such as is possible by estate agents, and “local” produce, such as the increasing success of “Hawkesbury Harvest” in Sydney, and the “Sydney Harvest” value chain initiative.

Comment January 2016. Little doubt this trend is alive and well. Following on from the examples from last year, the local farmers markets around Sydney have continued to grow both in number and visitors, and you cannot move at Flemington on a Friday or Saturday for the retail produce sales. The major retailers have both introduced programs that deliver produce to their shelves that just a year ago would have been scrapped because it failed the visual test. Now however, following the success of the “ugli fruit”  campaign in the US being ugly is a marketing benefit. (perhaps there is hope for me yet)

 

      • Paid social media will evolve more quickly than any of us anticipate, or would be forecast by a simple extrapolation. Twitter will go paid, travelling the route Facebook took to commercialize their vast reach. Some will hate it as it filters their feeds, others  will welcome the reduction of the stream coming at them from which they try and drink. Anyway, twitter et al will set out to make money by capitalising on their reach.

Comment January 2016. This had better remain a forecast as I have seen no evidence that it has evolved much from a year ago beyond the continuing  squeeze being exerted on organic reach by Facebook and others. Twitter remains an uncurated torrent of posts, where use of the management tools is in the hands of the user.

 

      • Social will grab more of the market  in 2015 than it has had, even though the growth has been huge over the last few years. Small businesses will either embrace social and content marketing, in which case their agility and flexibility will put them in a competitively strong position, or if they fail to do so, they will fall further behind, and become casualties.

Comment January 2016. Again, plenty of anecdotal evidence, but little objective evidence I have seen, although plenty of the sort published by those with an interest in the success of social media trumpeting their own success.

 

      • The customer should always be the focal point of any organisation, but often they fail to get a mention. It is becoming more important than ever that you have a “360 degree” view of your customers, as the rapid evolution of social media and data generation and mining is enabling an ever more detailed understanding of the behaviour drivers of consumers. The density of highly targeted marketing, both organic and paid is increasing almost exponentially, so if you do not have this 360 degree view, your marketing will miss the mark.

Comment 2016. Wise thoughts from a year ago,  but hardly original. There would not be a management book anywhere that did not somewhere suggest that customers are what keep you in business, not the beauty of your product, and not  the efficiency of your processes, but the value you deliver.

 

      • Treat with caution all the predictions you read, keep an absolutely open mind, as the only thing we know for sure about them is that they will be wrong, as with this ripper from Bloomberg who predicted the failure of the iphone. However, as with statistical models, quoting George E.P. Box who said “Essentially, all models are wrong, it is just that some are useful” perhaps some of the predictions you find around this time of the year will be useful, by adding perspective and an alternative view to your deliberations for 2015.

Comment  January 2016  Still good advice.

As a final thought, if you think your kid may be good at marketing, be sure they learn maths and statistics. “Maths & Stats”  will increasingly be the basis of marketing, and the source of highly paid jobs and service business start-ups.

Have a great 2015.

Comment January 2016. I still think this is a great idea.

 

 

Small business beating the barriers of FMCG category management

Small business beating the barriers of FMCG category management

Dec 2, 2015 | Customers, retail, Small business

Small business beating the barriers of FMCG category management

One of the core challenges in category management is simply the way the term has been interpreted operationally.

Let me explain.

Category management is a data intensive game, the numbers count for everything, and the depth that can be plumbed nowadays with the combination of scan data, loyalty cards and increasingly social data is astonishing.

However, this can lead to a sort of blindness.

If it is not in the data, by definition it does not exist.

Right?

Wrong.

Think about where all  the great innovations have come from.

“Left field” is the usual term. Few genuine  innovations have come from the established orthodoxy of any category, they involve things that currently do not exist or exist in another, unconnected category in a different form.

The disciplines of Category Management, weather we like it or not tend to eliminate these outliers, thus limiting category innovation.

Not the desired outcome.

The challenge of running the data intensive margin maximisation regime by leveraging existing category variables while minimising risk stifles true innovation while encouraging range extension behaviour.

Innovation by its nature is both risky and outside the accepted parameters of category consideration. Successful innovation  requires both leadership and  wisdom to be displayed before a guernesy is given for the investment required to get a new SKU on shelf, even if it is a replacement for a tired item.

Neither management quality is in great supply.

It is in this space that SME’s can build a competitive position against their larger competitors who may have the advantage of scale as well as  category captain status, but are failing to be genuinely innovative. By building a history of innovation in outlier and niche retailers, independents, and direct to customers, smaller suppliers can build the  “attraction  quotient”  with the supermarkets, and have the chance to retain some control.

Become successful in those outliers and the mass retailers will follow, that is their nature, they are followers.

Somehow you have to find a way to manage by both the data, and a product benefit /brand narrative that is entirely from the perspective of the consumer.

The mindset change for small business success

The mindset change for small business success

Nov 30, 2015 | Branding, Innovation, Small business

The mindset change for small business success

On one hand, digital tools offer small businesses the opportunity to look big, to compete with the big guys on a global stage.
On the other, small businesses have the ability to seek out niches that are too small for large business to be bothered with.
Innovation always emerges from the fringes. Clayton Christianson’s “Innovators Dilemma” maps the changes in a number of instances, sputtering inefficient little “Honda 50’s” bikes evolved to take over the motor bike markets, similarly, poor quality, cheap cars from Toyota evolved to replace the behemoths of Detroit.

Kevin Kelly’s 1,000 true fans article was one of the first to combine the ideas of the long tail and scale, positing that there was a spot at 1,000 fans that could be a living if you had that many raving fans prepared to buy what you had for sale.
In effect, the riches are in the niches.

I deal with small businesses all the time, and most will remain small because they do not want to engage with the idea of niches, the notion that they may be narrow but deep, and hard to find, but once found, they can wind their way around the world.

My son is a photographer, but old school. He uses black and white film with large and medium format cameras. Why does he bother in a world where everyone has a great camera in their pocket, why carry 20kg of gear over kilometres to catch a photo. Good question until you see one of the resulting photos, something that touches a place that the camera in your pocket does not know exists. It is a niche, probably a few dozen people in Sydney inhabit, say 30 in 3 million, infinitesimal, but take the 5 billion people in the world, and suddenly there is a niche way too small to be of any value to any of the photographic supplier companies, that has thousands of people in it around the world.
In those thousands there is a living, and riches of other sorts as a bonus.

Find your niche and mine it.

7 myths of marketing automation

7 myths of marketing automation

Nov 16, 2015 | Customers, Governance, Marketing, Small business

Like most interested in this topic, I see a lot of stuff published, and have gone to my share of seminars in an attempt to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Over 40 years marketing experience, and having seen the rise and rise of automation, along with the carpet-baggers flogging get rich quick, and “if I can do it, so can you”  schemes that would  make a gypsy blush, I am probably just a little sceptical.

Here are the myths I see most often, all flowing from the foundation “it is easy” myth

  1. Automation solves problems.

Without the basics being right, understanding the markets, your customers and competitors, how your value proposition and service levels resonate, you are still  nowhere, automation or not. An early lesson I learnt is that poor problem definition leads to poor decision making and even worse marketing. Crap marketing that is automated just generates a bigger pile of crap, quicker, with a second often larger problem that when it comes from a computer for some reason, it gains credibility, so your pile of marketing crap risks becoming a “truth” that has the potential to send you broke.

2. Automation provides the processes. 

Automating anything means that it is done automatically the same way every time. If you have process that deliver rubbish, marketing automation will only enable you to deliver more rubbish, quicker, to more people, Who wants that? Building robust, processes is essential, at every level of the marketing ‘stack’ (sorry about the jargon, the stack is the pile of various digital processes that together make up an automated system). No automation system is “Plug & Play” in isolation.

3. Automation enables a purchase mind-set.

Making a choice is certainly not something that automation can provide. Best it can do is give a rational analysis of the data to hand.  The nature  of the buying process and associated communication has been transformed in the last decade by digital tools. Buyers now accumulate information independent of sellers, and often make a final choice before a seller knows they are in the market, but the choice is human, subject to all sorts of considerations still way beyond the capability of automation to replicate.

4. Automation cannot respond other than by rote.

Consumers seek all sorts of subjective and referential information when researching even a modest purchase, switching between left and right brain without realising they are doing it. That process cannot be replicated digitally. Best we can do is define the range of personas we see in the market and tailor and continuously improve the communication strings to meet the anticipated and instinctive Q&A sessions happening in purchasers mind as they move through the “funnel” towards a decision.

5. Content is king.

I hear this all the time, “just pump out the content and they will come.” Rubbish. This may have been partially true at the beginning of the digital revolution, but no longer. There is now so much content around that the competition for potential customers attention is now far greater than it has ever been.  The challenge is now having the best, most relevant and timely content delivered in a personalised manner, as and when the buyer asks themselves a question. You need to be a marketing mind reader!

6. The number of leads counts.

This is only true when you consider the quality of the leads at the same time. It is easy to generate a lot of response to something, the key is the likelihood of a conversion to a transaction of the initial lead, not the number of leads. Quality wins out over quantity every single time.

7. Automation solves the “don’t know what you do not know” problem.

This goes back too my original point. Experienced, informed and creative  marketing thinking cannot be replaced by automation, no matter how much many who call themselves “marketers” would like it to be so.

 

Automation can be a hugely valuable investment, but it is not easy, not cheap, and does not replace the  skills, domain wisdom and experience of those who have been there, done that!

When a dose of ‘fair dinkum’ is required, call me.

Is your business “solvent”

Is your business “solvent”

Nov 13, 2015 | Management, Small business

Many small businesses do not know the answer to that fundamental question.

It is technically illegal to trade while insolvent, but many small businesses do it every day, often without knowing.

So how do you measure “solvency”?

Being solvent means you are able to pay your bills when they fall due, but measuring it exactly involves a little judgement and understanding of the commercial circumstances of the business.

However, there are two simple measures almost always used by a lender, or anyone else with a need to check the health of your business.

Both are about the manner in which you manage your cash, which should be right on the top of any management agenda irrespective of the size or complexity of your business.

1. The current ratio.

The current ratio is the first calculation a prospective lender will do , it is pretty easy to calculate, and most bookkeeping packages have it as one of the standard reports available.

Current ratio =   Current assets / current liabilities  

“Current” in a accounting speak means less than a year, so your current assets include cash, inventory at sales value, accounts receivable, and any short term investments you may have.

Current liabilities are those bills that will have to be settled within the same year. This number is accounts payable, short term maturing loans to be repaid, and the one many miss, the provisions for an accrued liability you may have for things like employees long service leave and other benefits.

2. The “Quick” ratio.

The second commonly used ratio is the “Quick ratio”, which as implied, is a measure the very short term ability to cover debts. Many businesses have a lot of money tied up in finished goods inventory, work in progress and raw materials. All can be challenging to liquidate in a short time, so the quick ratio is a simplified ,measure of the immediate ability to pay the bills.

Quick ratio = (Current assets – Inventory) / Current liabilities.

These ratios are the same apart from the inventory valuations and provisions, and are usually used together.

The valuation of inventory is always a challenging question.

In valuing finished good inventory for a “quick” calculation , the appropriate number is the realisable value within a month. If you have three months inventory on hand, it is unrealistic to believe you can sell it all in a month and get full price. Valuing WIP and raw materials inventory is even more difficult, as who wants a half completed product, and suppliers will be very reluctant to take raw material back at full invoice value.

As noted, these ratios are virtually always used when seeking funding, by any means. The potential funder will look at both ratios before any other detailed discussions. A bank will generally require a quick ratio of at least 1:1, and preferably 1: 1.1 or more, depending on their lending policies.

Are you trading illegally?

Do you know?

3 Foundations for small business marketing success.

Nov 11, 2015 | Marketing, Small business

foundations of marketing

marketing foundations

Marketing now is as different to marketing just 20 years ago as car manufacturing was before and after Henry.

However, the basics remain unchanged, just as happened with the manufacturing disruption Henry brought to building cars.

I find myself spending lots of time  talking to small businesses about the things necessary for success, particularly in digital marketing.

They tend to be different conversations, but always coming down to a small number of common factors. It does not matter much if their focus is on a social platform, email marketing, video, webinars, podcasts, or any of the other techniques that have evolved recently, the 3 foundations remain.

  1. Positioning.

Positioning is one of the oldest notions in marketing, defining how your customers or prospects see you, what they think you might be able to deliver to them. In other words it is the unique story they recall when they think of you.

In the brand building process, researchers often seek the human characteristics of the brand that are present to be built on, removed or modified, and always seek the favourable characteristics. Reliable, detail driven, fun, creative, and so on.

In digital marketing it is no different, but just needs to be even more focussed. For most small businesses, it is way better to be really, really good at a small number of tings that are of value to your target market, than pretty good at a whole range of things. In the former you are the expert, someone worth considering, in the latter you are just another of the generalists.  This is often a challenging choice for small businesses to make as the instinct is never to turn away a potential customer, but the fact is that there is so much competition out there that unless you are distinctive, and deliver some sort of value that cannot be obtained elsewhere, any customer relationship will be tenuous, or price driven.

Positioning can be most easily thought about on two parameters.

First, the niche you occupy

Second the persona of the ideal customer you are seeking. These are mutually reinforcing, and the more focussed on each the better.

One of my mates is a terrific, creative landscape designer. However, she occupies a very specific niche. Do not ask her to design a landscape for a block of units, or a park, both jobs she can do really well, but so can many others. Her expertise is in personal outdoor spaces with a “Japanese garden” flavour. If her particular style is not what you are looking for she will recommend several others in the area who can help, but she will not do it for you.  But if the “tranquillity” of her speciality is what you are looking for, there is absolutely no one better.

Her ideal customer is equally specifically drawn. They are successful, middle aged couples with no children at home, working in the relatively small spaces of the near city suburbs, seeking an easily maintained space for quiet times and contemplation. If you have kids, or want a broad entertaining area, your needs  will rarely overlap her special design skills,   and again, she will recommend someone who will do a great job for you.

2. Communicating.

There are all sorts of ways to communicate, both digitally and offline. The sum of the combination of the options is almost always greater than the sum of the individual pieces of communication by themselves.

The key is to ensure that every piece of communication has a purpose that serves the overall objective, plays a role in the jigsaw of communication.

Having an objective is paramount. For some people that objective will be a personal meeting with a prospect who has been ‘warmed’ by a series of communication pieces that each has an objective and call to action as a part of the communication. It could be an email with a download, video with an invitation to subscribe to the channel, or an ad designed to gain attention and build, awareness of the product.

The key these days is to appropriately mix and sequence the communications in response to the signal coming from the prospect as they move around, and hopefully through the sales funnel.

3. Automating.

The days of one piece broadcast communication, with little hope of identifying the recipient are gone, technology has turned the communication process on its head. It is now the case that a piece of communication has not been of any value unless an intended recipient actually does something with it. In order to know, you need to be able to track the actions, then respond appropriately to the signal the receiver gives you.

Without automation, this is virtually impossible  on any commercial scale. You need t build repeatable and predicable processes that respond cross the marketing and sales processes, so you have to also ensure that the right people are in place, and that the product offering is relevant to the target market.

None of this is easy, particularly for small businesses, and the cost can be a barrier, but think of the cost of doing it wrong.

Get the foundations right, and the building will stay up, get them wrong……….