The ’90 day trick’ for success

The ’90 day trick’ for success

 

We tend to overestimate what we can do in a day, but underestimate what we can do in a year. 

This is a well understood cognitive bias first articulated by Roy Amara, as it applied to tech development, but I have found it holds everywhere else.

90 days appears to be the intersection of the two.

It is short enough to create a bias to action, a sense of urgency, but long enough to make meaningful progress while accommodating the adaptations that appear along the road.

In my consulting, I encourage, indeed demand planning followed by execution of the plan. However, it is always challenging to have a 3 or 5 year plan aligned with the day to day activities, so I encourage what I call ‘nested’ plans.

A nested plan is one that has a longer term outcome agreed, then progressively broken down into annual, three month planning and performance assessment cycles, broken further into monthly and even weekly and daily plans, depending on the situation.

For example, a factory should be working on rolling daily plans, sales working on weekly plans. Performance measurement should follow the planning cycles, and be made absolutely transparent. For example, I encourage weekly rolling 13 week cash flow forecasts, which deliver the combination of urgency and perspective over the more usual financial reporting of monthly profit and loss.

It all comes down to determining what you are going to do today that will contribute to the outcome required, today, this week this month, this quarter and so on. 

Without a nested plan to which you commit, you will always tend to do the seemingly urgent but unimportant things rather than the important longer term things. These longer term activities are always more emotionally and intellectually challenging, which is why we put them off, find excuses, and generally procrastinate.

It is a fine circus act, this short term/longer term balance, one that is hard to maintain, requiring concentration, situational awareness, and finesse, but essential for success.

A note of caution to finish.

As essential as the planning being a part of normal activity, so should be the ongoing incorporation of feedback into the plans. A robust review and incorporation process is as important as the planning itself. No good ensuring you stick to the plan when it runs you off a cliff. 

 

 

To focus, ask the ‘Framing Question”

To focus, ask the ‘Framing Question”

 

One of my acquaintances is in a real muddle, and stressing out beyond the point of sensible.

His business is circling the drain hole, and he is drowning in things that he thinks he needs to do, and things that his various service providers, suppliers and customers have told him he must do, now, or sink.

Problem is, they are all different, and all come from the perspective of the person offering the advice.

Over a beer, during the Christmas break he observed I had been the only person he knew who played in this space, and had not offered a ‘perfect solution’ to his problems, so he asked my opinion.

I do not have all the details of his situation, so have no solid base from which to offer a view, but suggested he ask himself what I call ‘The Framing Question’

‘What is the one thing I can do, such that by doing it, everything else will be easier or unnecessary’

Answering this question will lead logically to several others, such as ‘How’,  which leads onto a set of steps, which begins to sound like a plan!

You can have a plan that is really long term, which often resembles a dream until you put specific milestones and performance measures in place, and work towards it progressively. Exactly the same thing can be said about the tasks that confront you on a daily basis.

Making sure that the daily tasks build towards the longer term one is simply a cascade of the daily answers building over time. The daily answers will vary, the longer term answer should not.

In my acquaintances case, the answer was ‘Cash’

He is now working on executing a plan we developed on the back of a coaster that manages his cash better, and will generate more of it.

The plan was for 90 days, which was all he had left if nothing changed, with targets and tasks, and he now has a cascade of monthly, weekly  and daily priorities that he and his staff will work on before anything else. 

What is the one thing I can do…..?

A simple question, but clear and with no room for wriggling.

 

 

What makes the perfect business?

What makes the perfect business?

A while ago after a networking meeting, a few of us went to a pub for a steak, and ended up solving the problems of the world on beer coasters.

As you do.

Given we all owned and ran small businesses, the main topic of conversation was around the nature of the perfect business, the one none of us had.

The depth of intellectual effort that had gone into  the discussion deserved preservation, so I collected the tattered and somewhat wet coasters at the end of the night.

The next day it took a greater than anticipated effort to decipher what had been very clear just a few hours before. However, following are the parameters of the perfect business we arrived at.

  • It has a wide demand area, not just the local area, the world. This is now a possibility whereas a decade ago it was still fantasy.
  • You have a ‘monopoly’ in a niche, with inelastic demand. To achieve this the business must be very specific, and very good at what it does. So good, and so specific in fact, that it is simply not worth the investment and risk of competitors coming after you, but customers need your product and are prepared to pay for it. (A former client sold a highly refined chemical into a high end niche in the professional photographic market. A tiny, narrow world market, where the users needed the product in very small quantities, so price was not an issue, but the challenges for a competitor were significant. Perfect.
  • Substitutes are hard to find. In the example above, there were substitutes, quite acceptable ones at average levels of output integrity, but at the really pointy end, there were none so he could set his own prices. This is, until digital took over, making his business one of the bits of disrupted post digital debris.
  • Labour costs are minimal, the fewer personnel the better. Contractors undertake the recurrent processes, often in lower cost locations.
  • As above with overheads, which just anchor you to a place.
  • Investments in inventory, which chews up working capital, are minimal.
  • The business is mobile, in the sense it really does not matter if the HQ is in Sydney, Melbourne, or under a tree in Port Douglas.
  • There are limited regulatory regimes that interfere in the running of the business. The opposite is also true, where the regulatory impositions are so high that they discourage competition.
  • There is some element of cash, not for tax evasion purposes (although this angle did have some attraction) but to minimise the working capital necessary to run the day to day operations.
  • It is not bricks and mortar retail. Sounds specific, but in retail there are always long hours, and problems with personnel and customers, that just get in the way of making a profit. Besides, B&M retail is in the early stages of disruption, and Amazon had just opened their warehouse in Melbourne.
  • It is a subscription business of some sort, where the revenue just rolls in without the necessity to go through the sales process again and again for every dollar of revenue.
  • It is not a straight trade of your time for money, there has to be leverage involved. The web with its opportunity to leverage content has opened up a host of opportunities not around a few years ago.
  • The business has some value to your ‘internal’ life. It is something you love, it feeds your intellect, gives you the time you need to chase a dream, whatever it is, it delivers more than just the financial rewards.

None of this allows you to be successful in the absence of real marketing understanding, a product that fills a genuine need in ways not easily replicated by others, and a bit of being in the right place at the right time. Being able to see an opportunity when it knocks is critical, as it rarely knocks twice.

Additions to the list are very welcome, and it may serve as a scorecard for your business!!

What SME’s can learn from Apples trillion dollar milestone

What SME’s can learn from Apples trillion dollar milestone

On Thursday last week, Apple became the first trillion dollar company in market capitalisation.

I was not even sure what a trillion is.

A ‘Trillion’ is different in the US count to the British system which we in Australia follow.

In the US system a trillion is one thousand times one billion.

In the British system, a trillion is one million times one billion.

Apple when it passed the US Trillion mark on Thursday at a stock price of $207.04 per share, was a company worth 1 with 12 zeros following it. $1,000,000,000,000.

Long way to go to be a British trillion, but nevertheless, a heap of money. (pity they pay so little tax on Australian revenues). Just for a little context, the US Federal  budget in 2015 was $3.8 Trillion, and was 21% of the US GDP. Therefore, Apples market valuation is now roughly 25% of the US federal budget.

So, what can a simple local SME, the businesses I work with, learn from this astonishing performance? Broke to a trillion in 20 years.

Yes, Apple was as good as broke in 1997 when Apple brought back Steve Jobs by buying his NeXT business to get their hands on the operating system, because windows was killing the MacOS as it was at the time.

The Apple board terminated then CEO Gil Amelio and put Jobs back in charge, and he changed everything.

So, to the question, what can the local SME’s learn from this?

A lot it seems to me.

Strategy.

You have to be able to take a ‘helicopter’ view of the market you are in, its adjacencies, and likely future influencers.  Jobs did this several times, seeing the potential impact of MP3 players, then teaming that device up with software iTunes, then moving again with the iPhone and iPad. Each time he saw what was potentially possible, and made it happen. As a local business, this helicopter view is just as valuable to you as it was to Jobs in 1997, and subsequently.

Timing is everything.

Jobs was able to see what was becoming possible before anyone else, and leverage the change. He was not the first in any of the individual technologies, but he put them together in a different way to leverage the multiplier effects. However, each wave was enabled by the one before, so timing was crucial.

Control of your value chain.

Customers are not looking for components, they are looking for the best solutions to their problems. Apple controls its value chain with an iron hand, delivering to their customers a unique experience in a ‘must-have’ package. They do not manufacture any of the core components, they just arrange for it to be all put together. In the evolving commercial world we are all facing, one of the most important words will be ‘Control’. Apple has proven to be a master of control, and has benefited accordingly.

Great design sells.

Dell, and HP, and all the rest could have done what Apple did, but they failed to do so. They designed and sold solid, reliable commodities, that all looked, performed  and felt the same, Apple designed something different that delivered an experience. The evidence is clear. Apple has roughly 15% unit market share of smartphone units sold, but holds 85% of smartphone profitability. This astonishing performance is the result of great design and branding over a long time, and the control exercised over the supply chain and tech eco system.

Dream.

It is usually just fluff to talk about ‘dreaming big’, creating your own BEHAG, (Big Hairy Audacious Goal) but occasionally, someone does it. Dreaming is a key part of the process, but dreaming by itself does not get anything done.

 

As an aside, one of the members of my local tennis club is a long term Apple employee in Australia, who has Apple shares as a part of his salary package. He has been issued shares progressively over the years, all of which have been sold to pay for  the expenses of living, mortgages, school fees, all the stuff we all face along the way. The first shares he was issued were at forty cents each. A very long way from the $208 closure on Thursday, and yes, he was crying!

 

When you need help thinking about all this stuff, even if you do not aspire to be the next Apple, call me.

 

10 considerations to make better pricing decisions

10 considerations to make better pricing decisions

Setting the price is always challenging, the decision often left to the last thing.

Wrong.

Your pricing strategy should be a part of your overall strategy as decisions in other places have a huge impact on the best way to maximise your return from your  price.

Cost should have no say.

Customers do  not care about what it cost you to produce the product they are buying, they only care about the value they receive from the purchase. Understanding the value delivery is the real key, and everything else should flow from it.

What the market says should only be an influence.

If your product is the same as everyone else’s, in a homogenised mass market, where there is no source of differentiation, you cannot win. At best you will get a share in line with the number of direct competitors, at worst, chase the price down to the floor and everyone goes broke. This is a market you should not be in.

Differentiation.

Without some sort of differentiation that adds value to customers, you will be forever  in a price war. There is always a source of some differentiation, somewhere, if you look hard enough.  Something that adds value to  a segment of the market, so find that source of differentiation, understand the value it adds, and price for that. This may mean that many, perhaps even most in some circumstances, will reject you as being ‘too expensive’, which is fine, let your less focused competitors go broke alone.

Ensure the pricing model scales.

Pricing  models vary along with the business model in place. From a strategic perspective, when you choose a pricing model, it is very hard to adjust later to suit a different business model. For example if you start selling on line and take a 50% gross margin, that may look good until a distributor comes along and wants to sell your product through his system, but requires a further 50% margin to do so. There is not enough in it for you both.

Less distribution is sometimes more profit.

Uncontrolled distribution leads to conflicts in the pricing requirements of the different  business models, and can lead to a race to the bottom which no one  wins

The classic case is Australian FMCG retail. The two retail gorillas account for 70% of FMCG sales, so have a lot of power in the pricing discussions. They are largely unconcerned about your margins, only concerned with theirs, and especially theirs  compared to the alternative gorilla. When you go with them, you are trading volume for margin. At the same price point you can sell much less product at higher delivered margins through  more limited channels and have more in your pocket at the end.

I have had a  number of farmers as clients over the years, selling produce to the gorillas, investing significant capital to deliver the volumes but having nothing left over at the end. Mostly they also sell through alternative channels, from farmers markets to a few independent retailers, and these are always more profitable than the gorillas. It is a choice you need to make and my advice is always to treat the gorilla as a way of covering a bit more overhead, but when you get to the point of needing their volumes to pay the bills, you are in real trouble.

Simple trading terms.

Trading terms are just another way of packaging discounts, and should be as simple as possible.

The simpler and more consistent they are the better, as complicated terms have a habit of creating heavy and usually unseen transaction costs in your business. The other risk is that you end up using the terms to give favorable net prices to someone over another, and when buyers move, they take the terms books with them, so look out.

Again, the experience of FMCG retail is instructive. Aldi has ‘net net’ terms, the price is the price, whereas the gorillas insist in complicating terms and that delivers them added margins, and you the transaction costs. It is much cheaper to do business with Aldi, as there are fewer transaction and overhead costs, but you still play by their rules, which do not include your proprietary brands.

One of the most insidious terms component is payment terms. It is hard to resist the temptation to extend under pressure, but in the long run always better to do so. The shorter the time taken for customers to pay you the money they owe you the better, and long terms become more damaging as interest rates rise.

Demand creation.

When there is demand for your product, you can make more rewarding pricing decisions, than  when you are just competing in a commodity market. Therefore it is better to spend your money creating demand than funding discounts.

Going hand in hand with demand creation is the notion of what market you want to play in. Mass markets have price expectations and so do luxury ones, although they may sell less volume. This is associated with the business model and the strategic choices you make about the markets you will play in, and the way you play. Niches always deliver better margins, question is how much is left at the end as the volumes will be lower and product costs usually higher.

Customer value.

When the customer wants and needs your product and cannot get it or any substitute anywhere else, you have monopoly pricing power, something businesses love and regulators hate.  The classic economics 101 supply/demand pricing model, ignores two basic tenets: First, there is always a substitute somewhere, in some way, even if it is going without. Second, human behaviour is never just rational, and economic theory assumes both rationality and perfect knowledge. Value delivered should always be seen from the perspective of the customer, and different customers will assess the value delivered differently.

However, understanding the drivers of value that your ideal customers will have delivered by your product enables you to price at the point of maximum satisfaction for them, and margin for you.

Anchoring.

It is always better to start high, as you can if necessary come back a bit. By contrast, starting low and then trying to increase prices is enormously difficult. There is a process called ‘Anchoring’ in psychology that applies directly to the manner in which you set prices. Whatever is the first price identified becomes the anchor around which the rest of the conversation is ‘anchored’. Anchoring low means you will end up low, anchoring high usually means you end up higher than you would have otherwise.

Iteration. 

Finally, testing differing pricing options should be in most cases an ongoing, iterative process. We now have tools that will deliver real time feedback in many, particularly consumer, markets, so you can adjust prices for an optimised outcome as you gather experience and market intelligence. On line, ‘dynamic pricing’ driven by machine learning and masses of personalised data will become the norm in the very near future. In some areas, it is already here, and I can only see that increasing relentlessly, so you had better be ready.

None of this is easy, but setting the best price for your market that reflects your best interests  is crucial to sustained success. Call me when some deep experience is required.

Cartoon credit: Scott Adams and Dilbert. Nailed it!

 

What ‘digital transformation’ is not!

What ‘digital transformation’ is not!

 

It happened again over the weekend.

I had a conversation with a bloke who runs a medium sized business, and is embarking on what he called a ‘digital transformation’.

In other words, he is paying someone to build a website.

Another example of someone who is probably about to be badly disappointed, and lighter in the pocket.

A website is not a digital transformation, it is a piece of marketing collateral, and like every other piece, needs to have met and passed a few basic tests:

What is its purpose?

Who is my customer?

How is it different to others in a similar space?

What problem does it solve?

How do you want visitors to feel?

What do you want those visitors to do next?

 

If that is not all obvious in the first glance, start again.

The greatest cost in building a website is not  the technology, that is now almost completely commoditised, it is in the generation of the content in response to the answering of these simple questions. Failure to deliver to a site visitor something of value to them that creates at least curiosity to  learn more from you, means they will leave, and probably never come back. While there is  no dollar value to that outcome you can easily count, it is in reality the greatest cost in not having a site that works for you: lost opportunity and revenue.