Print or electronic, not really either/or

    A Wall Street Journal op-ed by Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google  argues that the demise of printed media, particularly newspapers and magazines is as much a result of their own hubris as it is the advent of new media, and that the opportunities for journalism have flourished rather than diminished.

    Fairfax have just announced that the outcomes of a strategic review conducted by McKinsey will result in significant changes to their commercial profile over time, with greater emphasis on electronic media. About time they woke up, having lost huge slabs of classified advertising, their “Rivers of Gold” revenue streams, to specialist web sites like “Car Sales”, “Seek” and others. The tenor of the public announcements still smells of them seeing electronic publishing as a competitive force, rather than a very different but  complementary one that will not go away.

    Print has lost its immediacy over a long time, first to radio, then TV, more latterly the web, but the process has not been one that should have taken them by surprise, the challenge is to harness the fundamental two differences the web has enabled:

  1. Anyone can be a publisher now, in a variety of formats from print to photographic  and video.
  2. The whole communication process is now 2 way, hugely networked and fragmented, no longer a one way broadcast, the source of Fairfax’s success last century. 
  3. My instinct is that it is too late for incremental change to their business model, even at a rapid rate, the game has moved on too far for them to recapture the fortunes of the past. Glad I am not a shareholder, although Fairfax chairman  Roger Corbett has a track record in instituting rapid improvement that generates great returns.

     

The next billions

In Australia, we are considering  the NBN, and the impact it will have, and argue about the best way to deliver it, cost effectively.

A further debate should be the impact of connecting the billions of people in the world not yet connected, and what that may mean to us, and others currently enjoying the benefits of living in a developed economy.

What will happen when Africa has access to the net, not just the knowledge, but the social tools, the ability to connect and do business across borders, absorb the cultural and economic differences they have with the developed world? With the resources base in Africa, the potential for development based on resources is huge, as with Siberian Russia, so long as the social institutions in those regions can evolve to the benefit of the majority, rather than breaking down into deadly squabbles over the potential spoils to the few.

The growth in Asia, low cost manufacturing based on low labor and institutional costs, has led to increased prosperity, increased education, a movement from the country to the cities, changes in traditional diets, will only accelerate and move to other areas in the world with increased connection, with huge flow on impacts.

Logically this also leads to consideration of the financial markets, as the developing world generates large trade surpluses, and investments in infrastructure funded by domestic saving further increasing their competitive advantage, how will the currently developed world repay the accumulated public debt? What will happen in those “developed” countries that slash public expenditure, and increase taxes to repay the debt rather than default?

We are in for a wild ride over the next few decades, but we seem to focus excessively on meaningless trivia, perhaps it is a coping mechanism.

Innovation at web speed.

“Open source innovation” is rapidly becoming an accepted strategy, an increasing trend as the communication tools on the net make it progressively easier, and people think up new ways to use them.

Eric Von Hippel     a professor at MIT wrote “Democratising Innovation” some years ago, and put it on the web for free download,  P&G have a deliberate strategy of seeking innovation from outside the firm rather than keeping it all internal, this is not outsourcing, rather it is casting around for the best ideas wherever they come from. Now, the idea has spread to more modest companies, one of my clients is experimenting with a “Wiki” as an adjunct to their more traditional and too slow technical processes.

These types of initiatives thrive on low communication costs, low barriers and transaction costs,  it is the speed to market, the creative networks, personal kudos, and energy created that works for the initiators and participants, not necessarily the promise of royalties.

The web laboratory

Product optimisation is not product discovery, the techniques to get the best results differ, usually markedly, as the challenge to collect data to mitigate risk for entirely new products is substantially more difficult than collecting the same data for what is effectively a range extension . 

However, in a web environment, experimentation is becoming easier and easier with the Google analytic tools now freely available, so product optimisation is easier and quicker than ever, to the extent that there is no excuse not to use them. The same tools also make collecting data on new products, almost  as easy, so long as an “experiment” can be set up.

However, outside the web environment, where the results are not so immediate or transparent, a bit of creative thought will open up ways to use the tools of the web to track test markets, early adopter customer feedback and reactions, service difficulties, unexpected uses that evolve, and the myriad of other factors at play in a genuinely new product, it just takes a bit more effort to dream up and implement the experiment.

The real reason.

In a generation, electronic communication has grown from initial inception to ubiquitous, the fastest adoption of any technology and supporting behavior change ever.

I have heard all sorts of babble about why this is, but it seems to me that there is one simple reason, the removal of the transaction costs in earlier forms of communication.

It now costs virtually nothing to send a message via email, and no more to broadcast that same message  to hundreds, often thousands of geographically spread recipients.

The downside of course is that our in-boxes have become clogged by stuff we do not want, and did not ask for, but the delete button is pretty effective.

Scale, speed and technology

The challenge of competing successfully in the digital age is to build the advantages of scale, without  the inertia of the bureaucratic structures that usually come with it as a means to manage and control  activities and investment priorities, not to mention the governance and compliance challenges.

This remains as true for services delivery as it is of manufacturing demand chains, private, NFP  and public sectors.

The evolution of technology and its application to communication has wrought profound changes in the way we manage, and the pace is quickening.

For those of us who remember the emergence of the Fax, just 30 odd years ago, the sense that something extraordinary had happened was profound, but who has used a fax for the last 5 years? Since then email has emerged, followed by an explosion of web tools and mobile technology.

 It is probable that the next innovation is just around the corner, are you ready?