What SME’s can learn from Apples trillion dollar milestone

What SME’s can learn from Apples trillion dollar milestone

On Thursday last week, Apple became the first trillion dollar company in market capitalisation.

I was not even sure what a trillion is.

A ‘Trillion’ is different in the US count to the British system which we in Australia follow.

In the US system a trillion is one thousand times one billion.

In the British system, a trillion is one million times one billion.

Apple when it passed the US Trillion mark on Thursday at a stock price of $207.04 per share, was a company worth 1 with 12 zeros following it. $1,000,000,000,000.

Long way to go to be a British trillion, but nevertheless, a heap of money. (pity they pay so little tax on Australian revenues). Just for a little context, the US Federal  budget in 2015 was $3.8 Trillion, and was 21% of the US GDP. Therefore, Apples market valuation is now roughly 25% of the US federal budget.

So, what can a simple local SME, the businesses I work with, learn from this astonishing performance? Broke to a trillion in 20 years.

Yes, Apple was as good as broke in 1997 when Apple brought back Steve Jobs by buying his NeXT business to get their hands on the operating system, because windows was killing the MacOS as it was at the time.

The Apple board terminated then CEO Gil Amelio and put Jobs back in charge, and he changed everything.

So, to the question, what can the local SME’s learn from this?

A lot it seems to me.

Strategy.

You have to be able to take a ‘helicopter’ view of the market you are in, its adjacencies, and likely future influencers.  Jobs did this several times, seeing the potential impact of MP3 players, then teaming that device up with software iTunes, then moving again with the iPhone and iPad. Each time he saw what was potentially possible, and made it happen. As a local business, this helicopter view is just as valuable to you as it was to Jobs in 1997, and subsequently.

Timing is everything.

Jobs was able to see what was becoming possible before anyone else, and leverage the change. He was not the first in any of the individual technologies, but he put them together in a different way to leverage the multiplier effects. However, each wave was enabled by the one before, so timing was crucial.

Control of your value chain.

Customers are not looking for components, they are looking for the best solutions to their problems. Apple controls its value chain with an iron hand, delivering to their customers a unique experience in a ‘must-have’ package. They do not manufacture any of the core components, they just arrange for it to be all put together. In the evolving commercial world we are all facing, one of the most important words will be ‘Control’. Apple has proven to be a master of control, and has benefited accordingly.

Great design sells.

Dell, and HP, and all the rest could have done what Apple did, but they failed to do so. They designed and sold solid, reliable commodities, that all looked, performed  and felt the same, Apple designed something different that delivered an experience. The evidence is clear. Apple has roughly 15% unit market share of smartphone units sold, but holds 85% of smartphone profitability. This astonishing performance is the result of great design and branding over a long time, and the control exercised over the supply chain and tech eco system.

Dream.

It is usually just fluff to talk about ‘dreaming big’, creating your own BEHAG, (Big Hairy Audacious Goal) but occasionally, someone does it. Dreaming is a key part of the process, but dreaming by itself does not get anything done.

 

As an aside, one of the members of my local tennis club is a long term Apple employee in Australia, who has Apple shares as a part of his salary package. He has been issued shares progressively over the years, all of which have been sold to pay for  the expenses of living, mortgages, school fees, all the stuff we all face along the way. The first shares he was issued were at forty cents each. A very long way from the $208 closure on Thursday, and yes, he was crying!

 

When you need help thinking about all this stuff, even if you do not aspire to be the next Apple, call me.

 

The four parameters of collaborative success.

The four parameters of collaborative success.

Collaboration in all sorts of guises, from casual cooperation to formal agreements and even mergers and acquisitions,  is becoming more and more common. Digital tools of communication appear to make it easier, which they should do. However, the tools themselves do not address the basic causes of collaborative failure, a failure to agree on a common outcome that is in the best interests of all parties, and to act on that agreement consistently.

Most collaborative structures fail, sometimes after initial success is unable to be repeated or scaled, even in the face of a compelling logic.

Over the years I have put together a number of alliances, in several industries, with vastly different objectives, from buying simple manufacturing inputs together, to jointly entering export markets with high barriers.

While the nature of  them is different, there are four challenges that simply must be addressed before the collaboration has any hope of survival let alone success.  These four common characteristics of all of them need to be acknowledged and managed.

Profit potential.

The collaboration must be seen by both parties, sometimes all parties where there is more than two (as is often the case in agricultural alliances) as being worth the effort. The potential value must be positive for both the alliances and every individual member of the alliance. This is always a fragile calculation, and the tragedy of the commons always comes into play.

In areas where there is no profit motive, such as between government departments, finding a unifying motive is even harder, and usually in my experience succumbs to politics and ego even faster than  in the private sector.

Complementary skills.

The chances of success are enhanced when the strengths of the parties are complementary, the strengths of one serves to fill in the weaknesses of the other. There is always overlap, sometimes considerable.  At each point of overlap the parties should be asking themselves if that particular area is of significant strategic importance to them, is it a key part of their value proposition and differentiation. Where it is, and there is overlap, trouble follows.

Common view of the outcome.

Differing expectations of the outcome results in stresses that kill off any collaboration. In the absence of a very clear and common view of the outcome of a collaboration, both for the collaborating group and its individual members, it will fail. This is a challenging proposition, as all sorts of human characteristics and frailties become enmeshed in the manner in which they all behave. This common view of the value and outcome of the collaboration must be clear at all levels in all  the collaborating enterprises, and the resources of all focussed at least to some extent on making the collaboration work.

Governance of the collaboration.

Managing an enterprise where there is the opportunity to exercise institutional power is hard enough, it is geometrically harder when the institutional  power is absent, or significantly diminished as it usually is in a collaboration.

Collaborations vary as noted from one-off transactions to  financially, operationally and strategically merged entities, with most residing somewhere between these extremes.  There must be governance rules that define the appropriate behaviour of the parties to  the agreement in all sorts of situations that can be envisaged, as well as those that cannot. These rules must go beyond the scope of applicable regulations, as we are dealing with people. The role of Directors and senior management is to enhance the value of an enterprise, and given there is mountains of data demonstrating that collaborations, particularly at the M&A end of the continuum destroys value, the governance of any form of alliance is critical to its commercial success and longevity.

Normally there are common concerns that can be agreed up front, but there also needs to be agreement on how to manage those situations that are not specifically a part of the initial agreement, but that pop up in the course of operations.

 

It is always best to hammer those out and put them in writing, irrespective of the goodwill that may exist at  the outset, as both people and circumstances change. Tiny molehills that emerge tend to rapidly become mountains unless addressed in a consistent manner, early.

 

There is considerable benefit in working on a ‘code of conduct’ at the formation stage. This can be an agreement over coffee of two sole trader entrepreneurs to a several day workshop of the parties to hammer out the agreements against a pro forma that covers the areas necessary for success.

Such a pro-forma must cover a range of areas, the most important being:

  • Expressions of the specific outcomes each party expects.
  • Definition of what is in, and what is out of the collaboration.
  • Definition of the roles and responsibilities of each of the parties.
  • Creation of joint decision making processes, and the means by which they will be communicated, evolved and managed.
  • The investment requirements of the parties, including non-financial investments, the area where the most challenging disputes can emerge, and how these differing investments will be valued over time.
  • What happens to the assets of the collaboration in the event of a dissolution of the collaboration.
  • A specific list of governance rules and the investments required to maintain them.
  • Specifically set out to build and maintain trust, without which all  the foregoing is a waste of time, and trust is always a function of behaviour, it has to be earned, rarely is it just given..

 

A final point upon which all collaborations hang, and have always hung since the beginning of people living together in some sort of interdependent manner. A collaboration,  or co-operation can only succeed over time when all parties to the agreement see that their best interests are best served by serving the best interests of the group before their own.

Cartoon credit: Scott Adams creating Dilbert, and his wry commentary

Economies of technology, not of scale, will be the drivers of success in the future

Economies of technology, not of scale, will be the drivers of success in the future

 

8 years ago I did a research project that required me to have a look at the future of intensive horticulture. As a part of that project I spent a month in the UK looking at what was happening, and was astonished to see the beginning of a production ‘flip’.

Horticulture is relatively intense compared to other forms of farming, but it still required lots of land, water, and labor. In the UK I discovered technology was in the early stages of taking over. Innovators had ‘flipped’ the model and were producing vegetables in capital and IT intensive greenhouses. The day I visited one of the leaders, Barfoots of Botley in 2010, they were completing the commissioning of the first 3 anaerobic digesters  at their main farm in Sussex, using the green waste from produce grown in greenhouses which was already powering the indoor growing beds and packing shed.

In the 8 years since, the progress has been amazing. AeroFarms in the US has attracted significant venture funding, and is one of those changing the face of agriculture by bringing it back to where the population lives, and Barfoots has expanded geometrically.

In Australia we have  very few  examples of this sort of innovation. One is Green Camel farms at Cobbitty on Sydney’s southern outskirts, which has combined greenhouse production of organic herbs and tomatoes with an aquaculture infrastructure producing barramundi in a closed loop system.

The point is that agriculture, like all other industries is being disrupted by technology in ways almost unforeseeable a decade ago.

Technology and capital intensity is replacing scale as the defining feature of success.

Lean Manufacturing seeks ever smaller production runs delivering an even flow of finished product matched to customer demand, as it evolves, eliminating WIP and finished goods inventories while delivering customer specific finished products with minimum lead times.

The days of huge integrated manufacturing plants cranking out product at volume to reduce costs by finding the economies of scale are gone.

Equally, production volumes from thousands of acres of open farmland will be replaced by a vertical capital intensive farm in a disused warehouse somewhere  in the inner city, close to consumers. Bit hard with livestock, but what are feedlots if not capital intensive small footprint farms?

Irrespective of the manufacturing environment, and I see agriculture as just another form of manufacturing, with inputs, WIP, risks, lead times, and all the rest, ‘de-scaled’ manufacturing will become the model our grandchildren will be familiar with. They will probably also be making engine parts in their bedrooms on desktop printers, it will be as normal as CAD software is today.

Header photo: Aerofarms towers

PS. After reading the post, a friend in the business sent me this link to the Panasonic vertical farm in Singapore. The more I dig around, the more convinced I become of the speed and volume of changes about to hit the supply chains of horticulture.

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

 

In the film, Benjamin Button does not age, as those around him do, but he does accumulate the memories and knowledge around him as time passes.

Pretty cool, unless the love of your life is stuck in the present, whatever that is.

For years we have recognised the ‘Button Effect’  emerging with brands in the digital age, brands that leverage both sides of the human equation, the so called network effect.

The more it gets used, the more valuable it becomes.

Accountants and accounting standards are confused by this, as all assets depreciate with use.

Not any more!.

Digital products get more valuable with use.

That is why the monsters in the space, Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook combined have the market capitalisation of all but the top few countries in the world at  around $2.5 trillion dollars US.

Staggering stuff.

What makes them so powerful, a position that has been reached in less than 20 years, replacing 100 years of industrial development around the world?

A very few factors seem common to them, and those coming up behind them, particularly the Chinese marketers, Tencent and Alibaba, along with Uber, Netflix, Spotify, and others.

  • They leverage the network effect, becoming the Benjamin Buttons of marketing , becoming more valuable with use
  • They are global, and their products cross cultural boundaries
  • They are in the lead at developing and deploying cutting edge technology, AI, AR, machine learning, whatever you choose to call it, these companies are leading the pack by leveraging behavioural data they collect with use of their platforms.
  • They seem to be inhabited and driven by ‘kids’ younger than my children. ‘Digital natives’ I guess would be the cliché, but none of the drivers of this revolution would be at the top of a 20th century industrial company, they would not have the experience to navigate the hierarchical structures that ran them.

You do not have to be a new age potentially global behemoth to leverage the network  effects available to you. Small businesses everywhere are becoming the Benjamin Buttons of their local markets, but the rules of engagement have changed. What worked for my generation is no longer enough, leveraging the network effects is now an essential ingredient of continuous renewal.

Credit: header photo from the film . 

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

 

My mother lives by herself in a large regional city in NSW. At 90 she is pretty remarkable,  although some of the bits are wearing out, so she has a pharmacological regime that would make your average teenage party-goer green with envy.

Her pills are made up from the actives by a local chemist with the compounding License that allows him to assemble her prescriptions and combine them, which he then delivers weekly in a pack that reflects the changing nature of the prescriptions written by her doctor.

A great service, and the young entrepreneurial pharmacist has the geriatric market in the town sewn up.

I was thinking of him last week when I saw that Amazon had bought US startup Pillpack for almost a billion dollars. As  a result, the share prices of listed pharmacy retailers, Walgreens and others fell into a hole, a now common outcome when Amazon comes around.

Jeff Bezos has long signaled his interest in the pharmacy market, being a part of Drugstore.com in the 90’s which was eventually bought by drug store chain Walgreens for $400 million, and closed down. He has made other investments in various areas of the health industry over a long period, which should have provided an early warning alarm to the incumbents.  More recently he has launched a venture in collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan to disrupt the huge but cosey health insurance market.

I can only wonder at the hand wringing going on in the Walgreens board room. They had a decade to build a moat around their business,  but failed to do so, and now the pirate has returned. This is exactly the same mistake Blockbuster made a couple of years later, by dismissing the overtures of Netflicks, and disappeared as a result. By contrast, the young pharmacist in Armidale will be well insulated, and I suspect will have his own plans to keep his business thriving. Meanwhile I suspect the Pharmacy Guild in Australia will again tread the road of trying to use the regulations as a protective mechanism, and try to fight the tide of change, which is ultimately going to fail.

As I have noted before, love him or hate him, Jeff Bezos is changing the world, perhaps like none before him. The incumbent public  and private institutions of our democratic western economy simply seem unable to accommodate the inevitability of the changes and their impact, and show no sign of being able to evolve sufficiently to do so. The assault on the pharmacy market is simply another example of the speed and certainty of change, which without sufficient ‘strategic intelligence’ being applied, will be the end for status quo driven incumbents.

When you need some of that rare strategic intelligence, more focused than is demonstrated in these pages, call me.

 

Uncovering the Strategic Vs Financial value of your business.

Uncovering the Strategic Vs Financial value of your business.

The valuations put on businesses are typically a calculation based on future earnings, a financial calculation that has always been the basis of company valuations.

We understand it well. Take current earnings and multiply them by a multiple that represents a picture of future earnings. Do some cash flow projections, and apply some risk factors to them,  punch out a NPV and IRR calculations, and bingo, a value.

The financial value of a business.
However, that does not explain the valuations that some businesses reflect when they are sold.

The most obvious example is  Instagram, bought by Facebook for a billion dollars in 2012 when it was little more than a startup in a garage with 13 employees and 30 million users.  Today it has almost a billon users, still growing by leaps and bounds daily, and some put the value north of $50 billion.

The reason it was worth so much at the time, way beyond any financial calculation was its strategic value to Facebook. Instagram had found the mobile crack in desk bound Facebooks amour, and plugging it in a world that was converting to mobile at geometric rates was essential. Hence the strategic value of Instagram.

The same sort of situation faced Google when they were considering YouTube. Its financial value was zero, perhaps negative given the exposure to lawsuits, but Google paid $1.7 billion for it in 2006 when it was still in the garage.  Why? Guess what the second most used search tool in the world is today, yes YouTube. Google was simply protecting its position as the giant in search from a potential intruder, and it had nothing to do with the potential of YouTube to make money.

What is your business worth?

Go to most competent accountants or business brokers and they will give you a range based on the financial parameters and what similar businesses have sold for recently. Easy if you are selling a hairdresser or metal bashing business, but harder when there are few similar businesses being sold.

In that case there is a lot more research and strategic thinking required to uncover the hidden strategic value your business may have to someone, usually unexpected.

Start digging well before the day comes when you want to sell, it may take a while!