Oct 6, 2022 | Innovation, Marketing, Strategy
We all understand what a post-mortem is: an analysis of why something after the fact. It deals with history, then usually when something has failed. We review the drivers of success less often than examining the reasons for failure, then allocating responsibility.
Planning a marketing program is in effect a ‘pre-mortem’, a plan of action that will, with good management, robust analysis, and a bit of luck and timing, deliver the anticipated outcome.
Logically, it makes sense to ask the sorts of questions typically asked at a marketing post mortem, when a plan has failed, before the failure, as a means to anticipate and answer the questions, offering an opportunity to fix the problems before they happen.
Based on the many marketing pre and post-mortems I have done, following is a list of the 10 essential questions to ask yourself and your team before pushing that great big ‘Go’ button.
Where did the revenue come from?
Growth is not possible in the absence of revenue, where did the revenue come from, and almost every marketing plan I have ever seen calls for growth. Less often do they articulate where it will come from., and the consequential reactions of those who might be losing out.
Current customers, new customers, channels, business models, products, technical achievements, geographies, and so on. However, do not just list them, articulate in some detail how it has happened. Again, that past perspective adds real ‘grunt’ to the conversations.
I used to refer to ‘Share of Throat’ when planning for FMCG. It implies that competition is not just the alternative products in the category, but everything that is competing at the consumption occasions. For example, a hugely successful new product was Ski Double-Up, launched in the late eighties. It brought new consumers, older men, into the market. It did not compete for a place on the breakfast menu, it was a healthy, convenient, and tasty snack product that filled a need in older men that frankly we did not fully recognise before launch. It opened up an additional avenue into men’s throats replacing pies and sandwiches.
Where did the capital come from?
Growth is a veracious consumer of resources, particularly capital. How did you fund that growth? Reinvestment of retained earnings, capital raising from friends and family, or from the markets, public and private, debt finance considering the necessity for assets as collateral? What alternative uses for the capital consumed were considered, and why is the investment in marketing a superior choice?
What is the dominant business model?
Are you a middleman, retailer, on-line item sales, subscription sales, did you achieve a position to monetise arbitrage opportunities, and so on. Digital has delivered a host of new and emerging business models to us over the last decade, but one thing that has become clear, if it was not already, is that differing business models do not live comfortably in the same house. Therefore, if your revenue streams come from different business models, the structure of your resulting business needs to be decentralised by those differing business models.
What is the ideal corporate structure?
Have you remained private, are you publicly owned, a partnership, Joint venture, franchise system? There are many options, and as in the previous question, siblings rarely successfully live in the same house.
What capabilities were required to succeed, and where did you find them?
This is a question in two parts. Firstly, what capabilities were required from individuals, technical, strategic, financial, and all the other factors that make human beings able to contribute? Secondly, what were the organisational, leadership and cultural factors that enabled the organization to leverage the capabilities the individuals brought in each morning as they turned up to work.
Which customers, markets, products, technologies, relationships, were critical to the success? The answers to these questions are at a ‘must know’ level. Why did those customers come to you, choosing not to go to a competitor? What is the factor that differentiated you from the others?
Which competitors proved to be the most potent?
Anticipating competitive action, and planning to accommodate the impact is a necessary part of every plan, as noted previously. This is perhaps the most common failure amongst marketing plans I have seen, and to be fair, written.
A long time ago I was with Cerebos, one of the brands I managed was Cerola muesli, at that time a successful brand, and I was keen to expand the brand footprint. I saw a gap in the market between muesli and corn flakes, this was 35 years ago, and there was not the wide choice we have now. We developed a half way product we called ‘Cerola Light and Crunchy’ and launched a test market in Adelaide.
At first, we did remarkably well. The logic we employed was well accepted, the retailer sell in easily achieved targets, and consumer off-take was strong after the initial burst of advertising.Then in came Kellogg’s with a look-a-like product, ‘Just Right,’ and their resources just blew us away, Light &Crunchy never had a chance in the face of the weight of the competitive reaction by Kellogg’s.
That is a lesson I did not forget. With the benefit of hindsight, it was obvious, poke a bear in the arse and he is going to turn around and give you a whack, and I did not anticipate the power of it, and I should have. Never made that mistake again.
Where did the new competitors come from?
New competition almost always comes from the fringes, and often outside the normal scope of most extrapolative planning. Looking widely at what is happening in other markets, and other technologies may offer insights to where new, and probably more potent competition may come from. Honda started in motor bikes with the Honda 50, selling it to students in California as cheap local transport. None of the incumbents, Triumph, Norton, Harley, saw them coming, they thought they were toys, being bought by people who would never buy a big bike. Blockbuster ‘owned’ video, and could have bought Netflix for $50 million, but thought them irrelevant, not even an irritation. 5 years later Blockbuster was broke.
What is the emerging source of customer value in the market?
Nothing new will be bought in the absence of a strong reason to switch from the incumbents, which always means new value has been created, somehow. How did your create yours?
What did we do wrong, and what did we learn?
You learn more from your mistakes than you do from the things you got right. Make sure ‘learning is part of the cultural DNA of your business.
When you have the answers to all these questions, found with the benefit of the virtual hindsight, you will be in a very powerful marketing position, able to write the plans that double-down on the things that will deliver the objectives and success
In other words, execute the plan.
Header credit: Talisa Chang via Medium
Aug 31, 2022 | Innovation, Marketing
Processes are the means by which things get done. From the simplest thing like cleaning the coffee machine in the lunchroom, to launching a major new product, it happens by way of a series of activities culminating in the objective being achieved.
It makes sense to do the same thing the same way every time, assuming you get the desired outcome. Doing so delivers stability, reduced errors, and makes the processes transferrable between people.
Process stability is a fundamental foundation of being able to scale a business.
However, processes do not innovate. They can replicate the past with great productivity benefits, they do not take risks. They squeeze out creativity, as it is variation to the process, and therefore not allowed.
Let’s look more closely at innovation, which can be broken down into a series of repeatable steps, and thus becomes a process.
There are two types.
Incremental. This is where there is continual improvement, the adjustment of processes to deliver benefit. The preconditions of incremental innovation are twofold:
- First, you need stability to be able to execute on CI, and
- Second, you need the culture of experimentation, continuous A/B testing to prevail.
Break-through. This second category is, to me, real innovation. It can create new markets and demand, of the type Apple deployed with iPod, iTunes then the iPhone, and Henry Ford did with the Model T. You need to be able to see where there is new potential, new markets, new demand, and be prepared to throw the baby out.
The culture and processes that support these two types of innovation are very different, effectively mutually exclusive, so you must make a choice. Trying to do both inside the same corporate ‘shell’ rarely works.
The former requires alignment, stability, continuous improvement, and several other popular management cliches.
The latter will die under these constraining circumstances, it requires insulation, a ‘skunk-works’ of some sort to succeed, a culture that enables experimentation and the attendant risk, giving the efforts immunity from corporate ‘sameness’.
Scott Adams reflects this pardox beautifully in this 2012 cartoon used for the header.
Jun 24, 2022 | Customers, Leadership, Management, Marketing, Sales
In the past, for the orderly management and convenience of organisations, Sales and Marketing have been kept by management in separate functional silos.
In a time of flattened organisation structures and the ease of communication and data sharing, this no longer makes any sense at all.
The evolution of the silos to one functional area of responsibility will remove substantial opportunity for the transaction costs incurred by turf wars, miscommunication, and unaligned objectives, to be eliminated.
From a customer’s perspective, how you are organised internally is irrelevant, they are looking for the products and services that solve their problems or address their opportunities in the most cost-effective way.
The vast majority of interactions a customer will have with a supplier will be cross functional. Over the course of a transaction, they will interact with sales, technical service, after sales service, and logistics, probably sequentially.
The power in the sales relationship has moved from the seller, who had control of the information necessary for a customer to make a purchase decision, to the buyer. In past days, the sellers only delivered the information that benefitted them, but those days are almost gone. This process has been gathering speed since the mid-nineties, and now dominates every transaction beyond small scale consumer purchases like groceries, and even there, the need to be clear about the ingredients, their sources and provenance is pervasive.
Both sales and marketing silos have the same ultimate objective: to generate a sale, and preferably a relationship that leads to a continuing flow of orders. The combination of the silos into one, Revenue Generation, makes logical organisational sense in this new environment, as well as better reflecting the way customers interact.
Sources of revenue.
Isolating the sources of revenue is a crucial component in effectively managing the revenue generation function. Luckily, the sources can be summarised into three areas.
- Customers. Which customers buy what products, in what volumes, how often?,
- Markets. There are many ways you can dissect a market. Geographically, customer type, customer purchase model, product type, depth of competitive activity, lifecycle stage, and others.
- Product. Product type, mix, price points, lifecycle stage, margin, potential, and others.
Together these three axes form a three dimensional matrix from which your revenue is derived. The task of the RevGen personnel is to maximise the revenue today, and into the future, while minimising or at least optimising the cost of generating that revenue.
Type of Revenue.
Considering not only the source of the revenue, but also the type is a crucial part of the equation that will lead to long term profitability. Again, there are three broad categories into which all revenue can fall.
- Transactional. One off sales that require little else at the point of the transaction beyond a mechanism to execute the exchange of goods for money.
- Packaged. This category is by far the biggest, as it contains all sales that come with a ‘ticket’ of some sort. That ticket may be a guarantee of service, warranty period, assurance of quality via a brand, bundled pricing, promotional support, and many others.
- Subscription. With the emergence of the internet, subscription sales are growing rapidly at the expense of the packaged sales. This exchanges the upfront revenue of a sale for an ongoing revenue stream based on use, time, or both product and service. The emergence of the ‘cloud’ has spawned a host of new business models that use subscription as their base, but it is not new. Xerox used subscription for decades by leasing their equipment, then charging for usage on top. Similarly, Goodyear moved their sales of tyres to the airline industry from a sale to a usage model in the 80’s to sidestep the simple fact that their tyres were more expensive, but lasted longer. This encapsulated the price sensitive nature of airline purchases, with the savings over time because their tyres lasted for more landings than did the opposition.
Thought about these variations all have resulted in an exploding range of business models over the last 20 years, making the task of managing the generation of revenue way more complex, and therefore also opening opportunities for those who can think creatively about the task.
When you need some creative outside experience in this complex menagerie, give me a call.
Apr 27, 2022 | Leadership, Management, Marketing, Small business
The inflation figures released this morning put the annualised inflation rate at 5.1%, up from 3.5% at the end of the December quarter last year. While it may bounce around given the volatility of fuel and food prices, the trend is very clear, and the current election driven lucky dip of spending promises will not help. This increase in a single quarter is the largest I can remember since the mid eighties.
Australia is in for a rocky ride, and it will not matter who wins on May 21, the impact will be felt in every corner of the economy, and by every Australian.
For SME’s who have weathered the challenges of covid and are now experiencing the added burdens of broken supply chains, and lack of labour, while trying to re-establish some level of certainty in their businesses in an environment where demand has ramped up, the prospects are daunting.
Irrespective of the decision made by the Reserve next Tuesday, to raise the cash rate from the current 0.1% to 0.4% or 0.5% which seem to be the prediction of the majority of economists, the squeeze is on. Raising the rate during an election campaign will test the independence of the reserve bank. I bet there are some phone calls being made!
How will this impact your business?
Those impacts will vary enormously depending on the industry circumstances. The rate that gets all the attention is a weighted average, with the actual sector numbers varying from a slight reduction in communication costs, to a 13.7% increase for transport costs.
- Labour costs will soar, as the demand for labour continues to grow, while immigration is still constricted, and the cost of living blows out.
- Transport costs, which most just see in the petrol prices at the local station, which impact everything that moves in the economy will quickly feed into cost of goods sold in every product category.
- Businesses will see a sudden increase in their accounts receivable days, their cash conversion cycles will become longer.
- There will be pressure on margins from multiple fronts. Volumes will be constrained as supply chain failures impact, and competitors scrambling for volume will be more likely to reduce prices to grab that extra sale. At the same time, costs are increasing, and price increases will be harder to get, as buyers exercise their buying power and shop around.
- You will be pressured by your suppliers for quick payments, as they are being squeezed for margin, just as you are.
- General overheads will increase. We have seen significant increases in lease costs for small factory spaces, insurance costs will be turbo-charged after the floods, fires, and pestilence of the last 2 years, down to the little things like costs of coffee for the lunchroom. All these individually manageable cost increases cumulatively add up to substantial and hard to control increases.
So, what should the SME’s that wish to remain successful be doing?
- Customers shopping around for a deal in greater numbers can present an opportunity for those who understand the drivers of Value for customers in their specific market.
- Resist the temptation to cut marketing and selling expenses. History demonstrates with absolute certainty that those that keep marketing when their competitors shut down in tough times not only do better during the tough times but retain their positions after the worm has turned. Optimising your marketing expenditure is not the same as cutting it.
- Actively engage employees and stakeholders in ways to maintain profitability. This should always be a priority, but is more pressing and visible in tough times.
- Focus on the 10 tactics outlined in the Inflation Busting Roadmap published previously
- Consider from the perspective of necessity the five types of cost in your business, with particular attention being given to the last three, as that is usually where the opportunities hide.
Many have not experienced a spurt of inflation before, the last serious spurt was in the mid-eighties while Paul Keating was treasurer. In management terms, this was over a generation ago. If the experience of those times would be of benefit, give me a call.
The header graph is from the ABS website updated as the announcement of the scary 5.1% heqadline inflation rate was announced.
Nov 17, 2021 | Leadership, Strategy
Strategy is an essential ingredient for success. Without a clear, unambiguous, and well communicated strategy, there will be wasted effort, sub-optimal decision making, lack of alignment between functional responsibilities, and any number of other problems.
Therein lies the problem with strategy.
You spend time and money researching, developing, road testing and implementing strategy. You build a deep commitment to it, the CEO if he/she is doing their job well spends a significant percentage of their time building the engagement of all stakeholders in the strategy.
What if it is the wrong strategy?
What if one of the core fundamentals suddenly turns against you, or becomes irrelevant to the customer purchase decision?
Not only have you wasted the resources getting to that point, but the whole point is also to generate commitment. It is very hard then to turn around and say, Oh Crap, we got it wrong!
The inclination is to double down, work harder, not throw the sunk cost against the wall and change tack.
Blockbuster did not survive this challenge. Suddenly the core assumption that people would rent videos from a central location, then incur late fees when they finally brought them back, failed. When Netflix emerged as a subscription DVD by mail service, Blockbuster management saw it as an odd, fringe product that would never take on. Netflix management, virtually broke, offered to sell the business to Blockbuster for $50 million, an opportunity they declined. Technology caught up with Netflix, streaming became a viable option, and Blockbuster took only 3 years to go from king of the multi-billion dollar castle to broke.
Blockbusters strategy sucked. It assumed no change to the business model that had made them successful, could not pivot to a new model, and disappeared, because their strategy was wrong.
Kodak made the same mistake, and so did a local bottle shop that set out to compete with Dan Murphey’s on price and range.
Consider the strategic foundations of the current Australian Government’s commitment to the continuation of fossil fuel. Despite the spin of the last few weeks, their actions display that continuing commitment to the ‘Gas led recovery’ and options such as Carbon Capture and Storage, dismissed as fantasy by serious scientists. Business on the other hand recognises the inevitable failure of this strategy, and have been taking steps for the last few years to pivot their own operations. Now even the business lobby groups have publicly stated the government’s strategy sucks.
Tesla by contrast, founded in 2003, went public in 2010 for $17 a share. It took a few years before the strategy became an evidently powerful one. You could have bought a Tesla share in early 2020 for $70. That same share today is hovering around $1100. Tesla holds almost 80% of the US market for EV’s, 20% share worldwide. The market for EV’s is about 3% of total vehicle sales, but has doubled for the last three years: compounding is at work. All the major car manufacturers are fighting for a share, but I wonder if they missed the boat, In the US at least, you do not buy an EV, you buy a Tesla. A bit like Hoover, the brand becomes the verb describing the category.
The problem with strategy is that when it is well locked into the decision making and performance measurement of an organisation, it is very hard to change. Vested interests, personal, professional, and institutional all get in the way, and actively work against the change until too late.
To be effective, strategy also must be agile, subject to continuous evolution, as well as being the ‘North star’ of decision-making. The alternative is that you follow it into irrelevance at best, but often extinction.
Header cartoon credit: Scott Adams via the wisdom of Dilbert
